Monthly Archives: September 2022
Tracking Ian: Southwest Florida landfall looking most likely now per DeSantis press conference
The 12z model runs have shifted ever slightly more south and east, making a landfall between Fort Myers and Sarasota most likely. I took to Twitter last night to say the NHC needed to add Charlotte, Lee and Collier counties to the Hurricane Warning area. They did add Lee and Charlotte this morning, but my […]
Florida Hurricanes since 1950 – category, landfall, intensity, deaths, etc
STORM CATEGORY AT LANDFALL DATE OF LANDFALL YEAR MAX WINDS (KTS) PRESSURE AT LANDFALL LOCATION OF LANDFALL FLORIDA DEATHS NOTES Easy 3 September 5 1950 105 ? Cedar Key 2 King 4 October 18 1950 115 ? Miami 3 Florence 1 September 26 1953 70 ? Fort Walton 0 Flossy 1 September 24 1956 75 […]
Ian – Southwest Florida now squarely in the target area, NHC late pivot in Watches and Warnings are a rare move
For many who follow on Twitter, they know I’ve felt for days Lee and Charlotte County would potentially get impacts from Ian. The Euro model never shifted that far west, and history tells us southwest Florida tends to be a magnet for storms in the Gulf. The uncertainty of the forecast has led to the […]
Florida’s September Hurricane History since 1935
With Ian barreling toward a Florida landfall, we recorded a special Florida History Podcast, reviewing Hurricanes that impacted Florida in September, beginning with the 1935 Labor Day Storm, the strongest ever storm to impact the United States. You can listen to the Florida History Podcast on Anchor (which hosts our show), Spotify, Google, Apple Podcasts, Radio Public, Breaker, Overcast, Castro or Pocket Casts. Overcast, Castro, Spotify, […]
Wind probabilities for Florida cities per NHC
At 5pm ET, the NHC calculates these are the probabilities for Florida cities to experience Tropical Storm force winds between now and Saturday: Venice 95% Tampa 92% Naples 85% Cedar Key 79% Fort Myers 76% Key West 73% The Villages 69% Melbourne 64% Orlando 63% Daytona Beach 56% Jacksonville 50% West Palm Beach 48% Fort […]
Express Lane Sept 26: Tampa Bay Hurricane History, Charlie Crist in PR
As the state casts its eye on Ian and the constantly shifting models, one thing remains clear. The Tampa Bay Area which has not been directly hit by a Hurricane since 1921 (1968 if you count Citrus County) is going to get a real dose of what the rest of the state has suffered through. […]
Tracking Ian: Remember Charley’s projections and actual path? A cautionary tale
Modeling has gotten better since 2004 when Hurricane Charley confounded forecasters, but with Ian taking a similar dead aim at the west coast of Florida, this is the time to review Charley. Charley was supposed to first track through the Keys into SW Florida. Then the forecast changed to bring it directly into the Tampa […]
DeSantis performative art is all about avoidance of his failures and special interest favors
The last two weeks, Governor Ron DeSantis has taken heat for using migrants as political pawns in order to distract from his extreme abortion ban and the fact that he is doing next to nothing to address skyrocketing housing costs for people who desperately need the relief. It’s making him vulnerable here in Florida. DeSantis has actually been working hand-in-hand with wealthy […]
Tracking Ian: This level of uncertainty is unusual – a look at the recent model runs
Some quick notes on Ian as of 6 pm ET -A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Lower Keys.
TFS Express Lane: September 25: Kartik remembers Pete Antonacci
We’re suspending our normal Express Lane for one day so Kartik Krishnaiyer can give his views on Pete Antonacci who passed away from a massive heart attack in the Capitol on Friday. The passing of Pete Antonacci from a massive heart attack in the Capitol sent shockwaves through the Florida governmental, legal and political community […]
The Florida Squeeze 