At 5pm ET, the NHC calculates these are the probabilities for Florida cities to experience Tropical Storm force winds between now and Saturday:

Venice 95%

Tampa 92%

Naples 85%

Cedar Key 79%

Fort Myers 76%

Key West 73%

The Villages 69%

Melbourne 64%

Orlando 63%

Daytona Beach 56%

Jacksonville 50%

West Palm Beach 48%

Fort Lauderdale 44%

Tallahassee 38%

Panama City 35%

Miami 32%

All other major cities below 20%

Hurricane force winds

Venice 44%

Tampa 36%

Cedar Key 24%

All other major cities below 20%