The 12z model runs have shifted ever slightly more south and east, making a landfall between Fort Myers and Sarasota most likely. I took to Twitter last night to say the NHC needed to add Charlotte, Lee and Collier counties to the Hurricane Warning area. They did add Lee and Charlotte this morning, but my view was based on the Euro model having really never budged from a track that took Ian along the west coast (last week it had a southeast Florida landfall so was always to the east and south of the other models).
Now, per Governor DeSantis 9 am ET presser, a Venice landfall is projected by Emergency Management at the state. We will see where the NHC guidance takes us at 11 am ET, but I tend to think the Governor’s team is correct, and my hunch has been all along that this could hit south of Tampa Bay due to the upper level winds and a trough to the north (why I always felt a panhandle/ big bend landfall was less likely) and a trough to the east.
Additionally a Tornado Watch has been issued for Collier, Lee, Charlotte, Monroe, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.