Category 2022 Elections
Jacksonville City Council Maps Thrown Out; Latest Ian fatality counts by county
On October 12th, Judge Marcia Morales Howard issued a stay on the City of Jacksonville’s municipal lines, effectively meaning the maps cannot be used in the 2023 election cycle. The suit brought by the ACLU, NAACP, the Northside Coalition and others alleges that the city illegally, Intentionally, packed black voters into four districts solely based […]
Express Lane: VBM numbers favor GOP early – but Palm Beach really cooking for the Democrats; Ian forces DeSantis to make election changes in certain counties
We’re now almost two weeks into the vote-by-mail distribution in several counties and the GOP appears in a more favorable position when compared to 2018 and 2020, both years they won at the top-of-the-ticket in the state. Thus far, with about 400,000 votes in statewide, the GOP is beginning to benefit from ballots that are […]
2022 Florida Nowcast Election Model is Here!
The wait is over. Election Day is approaching. And with that, the new 2022 Florida Nowcast Model is here! Using the same algorithm from 2018 and 2020, I have just completed the model for the 2022 General Election. If you are interested in accessing the 2022 model, it’s easy. Just go to my website by clicking […]
Express Lane: GOP voter suppression, Crist’s comeback efforts and early VBM thoughts
GOPers have used the “big lie” to gum up the works so much that they passed SB 90 in 2021, a piece of legislation that effectively discriminates against older voters and minority communities by allowing partisan observers to challenge signatures on VBM ballots. What we’re seeing today in Florida across the state, as voters are […]
Florida Senate Preview – one month out
The Florida Senate hasn’t been a competitive chamber for 20 years, and will not be this year. However, following redistricting, Republicans are in striking distance of a super majority, needing 27 out of the available 40 to win a super-majority. In this piece, we want to cover every race, to give our readers a preview. […]
Express Lane: Voter Suppression — It’s Happening; John Dailey’s “October Surprise” Redux; Josh Johnson Surging in Key Leon Matchup
As Democratic activists since the 1990’s , we have always feared a major inside push to dis-enfranchise voters — particularly Black voters — beyond the usual nefarious games that are played in state legislation making it more difficult for everyone to vote. What we’re seeing today in Florida across the state, as voters are voting, […]
TFS Endorsements – State Senate
Bolded are what we consider key races 1- Charlie Nichols 2- Carolynn Zonia 3- Loranne Ausley 4- Sharmin Smith 5- Tracie Davis 8- Andrea Williams 9- Rodney Long 10- Joy Marcil-Goff 11- Brian Patrick Moore 12- Veysel Dokur 13- Stephanie Dukes 14- Janet Cruz 16- Darrel Rouson 17- Linda Stewart 18- Eunic Ortiz 21- Amaro […]
The Express Lane: With book closing day tomorrow, It’s voter registration, stupid
On yesterday’s TFS Twitter Space, conversations about Hurricane Ian and the Crist and Demings campaigns we ended up moving on to a topic which defines the malaise of Florida Democrats – voter registration. The GOP surge in voter registration relative to Democrats in the state over the course of the last two years has been […]
The Florida Squeeze 