The Florida Senate hasn’t been a competitive chamber for 20 years, and will not be this year. However, following redistricting, Republicans are in striking distance of a super majority, needing 27 out of the available 40 to win a super-majority. 

In this piece, we want to cover every race, to give our readers a preview. 

District 1: This panhandle based district has been a lifeline for Republicans in close statewide races. Incumbent Republican Doug Broxson will have no trouble getting re-elected in this Trump +29 seat. 

TFS Rating: Safe R

District 2: Much like District 1, this Panhandle based district is a safe Republican seat. Dominated by Bay County, Panama City native and State Representative won the Republican primary and a lock to win this Trump +44 seat. 

TFS Rating: Safe R

District 3: Senate District 3 is the most competitive District in North Florida, and arguably the most interesting race in the state. Incumbent Senator Lorrane Ausley is running against former Seminole great, NFL player and Volunteer Florida CEO, Corey Simon. 

In redistricting, the Tallahassee based district had to grow, being too small to maintain its old composition. Despite shedding Calhoun County, the district picked up Trump +57 Suwannee County, Trump +72 Lafayette County and Trump +66 Dixie County. 

Following this necessary shift, President Biden’s margin was significantly reduced from 9% to roughly 2.6%. In the 2020 general election, under the old lines, Senator Ausley ran 2.7% behind the President, meaning she likely would have lost under the new lines. 

Ausley’s campaign nor the Senate Democratic Committee has not done itself any favors, including a recent racially insensitive mailer depicting Simon on a shooting target with shell casings below him. 

Furthermore nationally, 2020 was roughly a Democratic +4 year, whereas 2022 is looking to be about even. Ausley is in trouble. 

TFS Rating: Likely R (Flip)

District 4: Senate District 4, contains all of Nassau County and the non Senate District 5, parts of Duval County. State Representative Clay Yarborough is a lock to win this Trump +21 seat. 

TFS Rating: Safe R

District 5: The race to succeed the term limited Audrey Gibson, was in August. State Representative Tracie Davis destroyed Jacksonville City Council Member Reggie Gaffney 68-32, and is a shoe-in to win this Biden +22, minority protected seat. 

TFS Rating: Safe D

District 6: Incumbent Republican Senator Jen Bradley is running unopposed for re-election in this Trump +23 seat. 

TFS Rating: Uncontested R

District 7: Incumbent Republican Travis Hutson is running unopposed for reelection in this St. John’s, Flagler and Putnam County Based District. 

TFS Rating: Uncontested R

District 8: Incumbent Republican Senator Tommy Wright is running for re-election in this Trump +15 seat. Due to the reddening of Volusia and Brevard Counties, this once potentially competitive district is now safe for the GOP. 

TFS Rating: Safe R

District 9: Incumbent Republican Keith Perry is running for re-election in this Trump +16 seat. During the Dixiecrat era, this seat would be competitive, not in this era. Democrats missed their chance here in 2018.

TFS Rating: Safe R

District 10: Following redistricting, incumbent Republican Senator Jason Brodeur is facing a much tougher fight for re-election. This Seminole County based district shed some Republican territory in Volusia County and picked up the blue trending Orlando suburbs. 

The partisan consequences from this shift moved the seat from a seat that Biden won by about 200 votes to a full four percentage points. 

Democratic challenger Joy Goff-Marcil, a state representative from Maitland is a strong challenger. In 2018, Goff-Marcil beat incumbent representative John Cortes and then followed that up with a strong performance in 2020. Goff-Marcil embodies the suburban swing away from Republicans in the Orlando area. In fact no county has swung further away from the GOP in the state the last four years than Seminole.

Both candidates have run strong races, avoiding giving the other a local wedge issue. Goff-Marcil has been pushing abortion, gun control and other liberal social issues which play well in the district. Brodeur cites his experience. 

No candidate has the edge. However, we think Brodeur will narrowly win. 

TFS Rating: Tossup

District 11: State representative Blaise Ingoglia won the Republican Primary in August following the endorsement of Governor Desantis. No Democrat filed for the seat and Ingoglia is a lock to be the next Senator. 

TFS Rating: Unopposed R

District 12: Over the past ten years, Polk County has grown a lot. Thus in redistricting, the County was rewarded with a seat entirely within it’s boundaries. State representative Colleen Burton won the primary and in this Trump +9 seat, no Democrat is competing. 

TFS Rating: Safe R

District 13: Unpopular Republican Senator Dennis Baxley chose to run for re-election in this new Trump +13 district. To avoid an incumbent vs incumbent primary with Senator Perry, he moved to the New 13th district. This district includes all of Lake County and Southwest Orange County. Due to the partisan lean, Trump +13, TFS doesn’t view the race as competitive. 

TFS Rating: Safe R

District 14: In 2018, then house minority leader, Janet Cruz beat Dana Young in this Tampa based district. Cruz, being hispanic was able to win enough Tampa’s Cuban population and stay competitive in the suburbs, narrowly winning. 

This year, the district changed minimally in redistricting, with no partisan change, meaning this Biden +4 seat will be very competitive. Cruz, an electoral powerhouse, is taking on former Green Beret, Jay Collins. 

Collins, who originally planned to run for Florida’s 15th congressional district, switched his plans and took on Cruz. On paper, Collins has the edge, however, Cruz is a strong incumbent probably favored at this point. 

Had representative Jackie Toledo ran for this seat, as opposed to FL-15, our view might change. But the Republicans did not give themselves the best chance to win as Toledo unwisely ran for Congress in a race that was always likely to be dominated by Laurel Lee and Kelly Stargel.

TFS Rating: Tossup- Cruz Slightly Favored

District 15: Because the Floridian mapmakers do not value numerical consistency, Senate District contains the majority of Western Orange County. In this minority protected seat Biden +33 seat, no Republican even filed, meaning the battle for the seat was in August. 

Representative and former Senator, Gerry Thompson beat Representative kamia Brown to win the open seat, punching her ticket back to the Senate. 

TFS Rating: Uncontested D

District 16: District 16, jumps back to the Tampa/St Pete region. Incumbent Senator Daryll Rouson is running in this black protected Biden +38 seat. Rouson is guaranteed to return to the Senate. 

TFS Rating: Safe D

District 17: Jumping back to the Orlando area, incumbent Senator Linda Stewart is running re-election in this Eastern Orange County based seat. The President won this seat by 20%, ensuring it will not be competitive this fall. 

TFS Rating: Safe D

District 18: Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Brandes is term limited and cannot run again in this Pinellas County based seat. Due to Pinellas shift right outside of St. Petersburg, President Trump won this seat by 5%. In past years, such as 2018, this seat may have been competitive, however, this year it will not be. 

So, it puzzles me that Democrats have promoted and asked donors to fund challenger Eunic Ortiz. Ortiz, a professor and union organizer, was never a good cultural or racial fit for this seat. This 77% white seat, was never electing a Hispanic and especially in this crucial year, Democrats can’t promote these “dead on arrival” candidates. 

Pinellas County has shown a willingness to vote for moderate Democrats who focus on problem solving. Ortiz isn’t that, and while I’m sure she’s a lovely person, her candidacy exemplifies everything wrong with the Florida Democrats. 

The wrong person filed for a potentially competitive seat, consultants, essentially scammers, promote the candidate, notable politicians promote the candidate, the candidate underperforms the top of the ticket, the consultant gets rich. Rinse and repeat. This is an ongoing pattern in Florida Democratic Politics.

Representative Nick Dicegile will not sweat winning this seat. 

TFS Rating: Safe R

District 19: Incumbent Republican Senator Debbie Mayfield is running unopposed in this Brevard based seat. 

TFS Rating: Uncontested R

District 20: Incumbent Republican Senator Jim Boyd is running unopposed in this Trump +12 seat. 

TFS Rating: Uncontested R

District 21: Incumbent Republican Senator Ed Hooper is running for re-election in this Pasco and Pinellas based seat. This Trump +14 seat will not be competitive this November. 

TFS Rating: Safe R 

District 22: Incumbent Republican Senator Joe Grueters is running unopposed in this Trump +11 in this Sarasota based district.

TFS Rating: Uncontested R

District 23: Incumbent Senator Danny Burgess is running for reelection in this Pasco and Northern Hillsborough based district. 

This seat will never be competitive. President Trump won the seat by 11% and even Senator Bill Nelson didn’t come within 8%. So again, it makes no sense for Democrats to promote any Democrat running in this seat. 

Yet they are, challenger Mike Harvey had 43k twitter followers, has been promoted by notable Democrats, and yet has no chance to win. 

TFS Rating: Safe R

District 24: Incumbent Democrat Bobby Powell is running for re-election in this Biden +24, protected seat.

TFS Rating: Safe D

District 25: Incumbent Democrat Victor Torres is running for re-election in this Osceola County and Southern Orange based seat. This Biden +18 seat will not be competitive. 

TFS Rating: Safe D

District 26: Incumbent Democrat Lori Berman is running for re-election in this Biden +17 seat Palm Beach based seat. 

TFS Rating: Safe D

District 27: Incumbent Republican Ben Albritton is running for re-election in this Trump +28.

TFS Rating: Safe R

District 28: Incoming Senate Republican President, Kathleen Passidimo is running for unopposed in this Collier County based seat.
TFS Rating: Uncontested R

District 29: State Representative Erin Grall is running unopposed for this Indian River based open seat.

TFS Rating: Uncontested R 

District 30: Senator Tina Polsky is running for reelection in this Palm Beach based seat. The President won this seat by 21%, Polsky is likely to win by a similar margin.

TFS Rating: Safe D
District 31: Incumbent Gayle Harrell is running unopposed in this Trump +11 seat. 

TFS Rating: Uncontested R

District 32: Incumbent Democrat Rosalin Osgood is running unopposed in this Biden +51, minority majority seat. 

TFS Rating: Safe D

District 33: No Democrat is running for this open Lee County based seat. Trump won this seat by 19%, so it was never going to be competitive, however it may have been an interesting test case of GOP support post hurricane Ian. 

Unfortunately we’ll never see that matchup. Lee County chair Johnathon Martin is heading to Tallahassee. 

TFS Rating: Uncontested R 

District 34: Incumbent Democrat, and progressive hero, Shevrin Jones is running unopposed in this Miami Dade based protected seat. 

TFS Rating: Uncontested D

District 35: Senate Minority leader, Lauren Book is running unopposed in this Western Broward based seat. 

After facing a competitive primary, Book will return to the Senate. 

TFS Rating: Uncontested D

District 36: This Miami-Dade based seat is represented by Senator Ilena Garcia. Garcia known for saying controversial things, particulary about gay people, is up for re-election in this even seat. 

Originally Miami Beach Democrat, Michael Grieco, planned to challenge, but dropped out due to a list of failures, which will not be discussed here. The Democrats switched plans and nominated Racquel Pacheco, a community leader. 

Given Miami-Dade’s hard turn right, I see no way Pacheco beats Garcia, but partisan lean dictates, this be left in the likely category.

TFS Rating: Likely R

District 37: Incumbent Senator Jason Pizzo is running for re-election. No Republican filed and the seat is uncontested. 

TFS Rating: Uncontested D

District 38: Similar to District 36, District 38 is Biden +7 seat, which made a hard right turn at the top of the ticket from the Obama years. This open seat is cut up between Senator Garcia, Rodriguez and Taddeo’s old districts. 

This competitive race is rare because both challengers are considerably weaker than other swing seat nominees.

The Democrats nominated Jannelle Perez, a cancer survivor and small business owner. The Republicans nominated Alexis Calatayud, representative Vance Aloupis’s former campaign manager. 

Both candidates are relying on party forces to raise money and aside from Cuban ancestry, don’t appeal to their constituents. Will Perez be able to appeal to black voters south of US-1? Does Calatayud get enough support to overcome partisan lean?

Time will tell.

TFS Rating: Tossup

District 39: Republican representative, Bryan Avila was the only person who filed to replace Senator and now Education Commissioner Manny Diaz in this heavily Cuban district.

TFS Rating: Uncontested R

District 40: Incumbent Republican Senator Ava Marie Rodriguez is running unopposed in this Miami-Dade based seat.

TFS Rating: Uncontested R

Bottom Line

Whether or not the Republicans get to 27 seats is the question of this election. At the Squeeze, we believe its a pure tossup, about 50-50% chance they hit that.

TFS Total Ratings:

Uncontested R: 11 (6, 7, 19, 20, 22, 28, 29, 31, 33, 39, 40)

Safe R: 12 (1, 2, 4, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 18, 21, 23, 27)

Likely R: 2 (3, 36)

Tossup: 3 (10, 14, 38)

Safe D: 7 (5, 16, 17, 24, 25, 26, 30)

Uncontested D: 5 (15, 32, 34, 35, 37)