Author Archives: Dave Trotter

An idea to make the Florida Democratic Party, more democratic

Over the last few years, Democrats have been expressing the need to protect the concept of democracy, and rightfully so. With Trump’s and the GOP’s assault on democratic ideas and values, combined with a strongman theory of authoritarianism, it’s important for Democrats to be the opposition voice during these turbulent times. However, to truly support […]

Full deep-dive audit and panel report of Florida Democrats underway

We’ve begun working on a full audit/ report about the failures of the Florida Democrats is underway. We intend this to not be the usual window dressing and rearranging Titanic deck chairs that has characterized Florida Democrats reaction to failure in the last two decades but a serious, deep-dive that attempts to diagnose the systemic […]

TFS & Voting Trend begin a “deep dive” post-mortem to look at Florida Democrats

If you work in Florida Democratic politics, are in a local Democratic party, or involved in any way, feel free to email me with problems you have noticed with the Florida Democrats . Everything is confidential. Email me at Kartik Krishnaiyer and I are working on a “deep dive” post-mortem which seeks to assess […]

Nowcast update: GOP surging, Simon takes slight lead over Ausley in SD-3 and link for election night video coverage beginning at 7 et/6 ct

Update: Turnout Rate: 40.61% Margin: GOP wins by 9.6% to 11.19% Dem Turnout: 41.16% Rep Turnout: 50.26% State Senate 3 Ausley (D): 49.9% Simon (R): 50.1% Below is the video link for tonight’s coverage.

SD 3: Ausley slightly ahead at 9 am per Nowcast

So, I applied my Enthusiasm Gap Nowcast to Florida Senate District 9. As of 9 AM, I have the results as: Ausley (D): 51.0% Simon (R): 49.0%. You can get the full Nowcast model at Voting Trend.

You Tube Early Voting & VBM Nowcast update tonight @ 6 pm ET

Democrats struggling statewide- Sign up for the 2022 Nowcast at Voting Trend

You can sign up for my 2022 Nowcast Model at Voting to get the latest real-time data from all 67 counties as Florida’s 2022 General Election hits its first weekend of Early Voting. We look at votes already cast, not polls or expert predictions like other sites. Here is a sample some of the […]

Florida Nowcast election update tonight @ 7:30 et members will have access to a call tonight where I will be answering questions about the election, current turnout and updated forecast for Florida. The call will be at 6:30 pm CT. Look for the link at the site in drop-down menu that is at the top right hand corner.

Florida Nowcast update- 8 pm et tonight

We will go over my nowcast model and discuss the state of the race in Florida tonight at 8pm ET. You can watch the update below:

2022 Florida Nowcast Election Model is Here!

The wait is over. Election Day is approaching. And with that, the new 2022 Florida Nowcast Model is here! Using the same algorithm from 2018 and 2020, I have just completed the model for the 2022 General Election. If you are interested in accessing the 2022 model, it’s easy. Just go to my website by clicking […]