Category 2018
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 21: Democrats take the lead.
So, to start off, I have to admit something. I made a mistake yesterday. I accidentally took around 10,000 to 15,000 votes away from the Democrats in Lee County. An input error on my part. So, the Republican did not have as big of a swing as the model projected. They did have a swing […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 20: Blue Wave might not be coming. Broward turnout holds key for Democrats
Another day of VBM and early voting in the books, and another day where the Republicans increase their lead. Yes, Democrats are turning out to vote, but so are Republicans. And even though Democrats may have the lead in pure turnout numbers, they still lag behind in turnout rate. There are two reasons Democrats are […]
Fear and Loathing in 2018
It’s less than a week until election day and we’re all going to die. A mass shooting in Pittsburgh by an anti-Semite, 15 pipe bombs sent through the mail to left-wing political figures and a racially motivated shooting in Louisville, Kentucky. On the international front, hundreds, and possibly thousands, of Hondurans are headed toward the […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 19: Record pre-Election Day voting benefiting both sides. Democrats have big problems in Orange/Osceola.
First, the projection map has been updated. It has a lot more detail than previous maps, including turnout tabs. So, enjoy the new map. Also, there is going to be a new model with new methodology out (due to the changes in pre-Election Day polling). The old model will remain up, but the new model […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 18: Voting patterns are seeing shifts in vote.
Overnight, the margin went slightly in the Republican’s favor. However, the overall trends continue to show that this is going to be a close race. As I have mentioned in the last two posts, it is a turnout game now. But how that turnout is happening is quite interesting. Let’s take a look. Turnout Summary: […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 17: Good Sunday for Democrats. Still waiting on Palm Beach County.
First, before I get into the analysis, I just want to say that we are still waiting for the early vote and vote by mail report from Palm Beach County to be submitted to the Division of Elections. You figured after the 2000 election that Palm Beach County would have gotten their act together, but […]
Marco Rubio is the LAST PERSON with the credibility to call for civility – judge him by his own words in the past
The DC political press corps favorite GOPer (though this is not true of the Florida press corp who have generally tried to keep him honest), Florida Junior Senator Marco Rubio has reappeared as a national figure in the wake of this week’s tragic events. After days of silence following an attempt by one of his […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 16: First Saturday of early voting is a dud for Democrats, and Governor DeSantis is becoming a strong possibility.
Since the World Series is going on, let’s use a baseball simile. It’s the bottom of the 9th, and the team that is losing is down by one run. They need to get a runner in scoring position, or at least on first base, tie up the game. Instead, the first batter goes three and […]
Why do the Dream Defenders and other leftists push BDS for Israel but not others?
In recent days Ron DeSantis has sloppily made the Dream Defenders support of Andrew Gillum an issue, using BDS (Boycott Divest Sanction) of Israel as his chief talking point. From a purely political perspective you have to assume Adam Putnam were he the GOP nominee would be far more effective in nailing Gillum on this […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 15: Republicans have figured out Early Voting, and Democrats need weekend miracle.
Bronough Street, we have a problem. That problem for Democrats is that Republicans have figured out early voting. The one “ace up the sleeve” for Democrats in Florida has been offset by an aggressive early voting campaign by Republicans. In fact, 7,152 more Republicans have voted early compared to Democrats. When Democrats make small gains […]
The Florida Squeeze 