Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 17: Good Sunday for Democrats. Still waiting on Palm Beach County.

First, before I get into the analysis, I just want to say that we are still waiting for the early vote and vote by mail report from Palm Beach County to be submitted to the Division of Elections. You figured after the 2000 election that Palm Beach County would have gotten their act together, but no. However, as soon as the Palm Beach results are in, I will update the model and post the update on my Twitter.

Yesterday, I used a baseball analogy to talk about the current state of the election. But why stop there. Even though the World Series is over, let’s continue. Last time, it was the bottom of the 9th inning and the Democrat’s first batter went three and out. However, with a strong showing in Sunday’s early voting results, the next batter hit a double, and now the tying run is in scoring position.

Turnout Summary: As of this morning, more than 2.7 million Floridians have cast their ballots for the general election, which is a turnout rate of 20.65% statewide (Palm Beach excluded). The registered Republican turnout is currently at 24.73%, while Democratic turnout is at 22.26%. NPA/Minor party turnout is at 13.26%. The Enthusiasm Gap is down to -4.06, a .58% shift to the Democrats since yesterday.

Bottom Line: For the first time, the projection model shows a race that is in recount territory. A generic Democratic candidate statewide is projected to receive 48.38% of the vote, while a Republican candidate is projected to receive 48.61% of the vote, which is only a .24% gap. This is a .46% swing to the Democrats since yesterday. Expect that gap to reduce, and swing to increase, once Palm Beach has reported.

Details: Basically, Democrats made gains throughout the state. While they did pull ahead in Duval County on Saturday, the Sunday vote pushed them a little further. Also, the margin in Broward County continues to increase, projecting a voter percentage higher than in the 2016 presidential race. While we still have a eight days of voting left, Broward County has the potential to cast over 70% of its votes to Democratic candidates. Also, Democrats moved ahead of Republicans by one vote in early voting in Volusia County. However, Democrats also had more early voters in Volusia County in 2016, but still lost the county handily.

While the swing looks better for Democrats, there are still some areas of concern. First, Orange and Osceola Counties continue to under-perform. This could pose problems for some local and state races in those counties. The problem in these counties is that independents, who are usually Hispanic and vote heavily for Democratic candidates, are not showing up. Therefore, while Democratic turnout is looking on par with what it should be, the lack of Democratic-leaning independents could mean there will be some close elections in Orange and Osceola Counties on Election Night.

Also, Miami-Dade seems as it might not be performing as strong as it should. However, one must remember that Republicans do quite well in VBM ballots in Miami-Dade, while Democrats dominate Election Day. With the margin right now, Democrats actually look poised to have a better than expected result in Miami-Dade County. We will just have to wait until November 6th.

What to watch for: As I mentioned yesterday, we have moved out of the “margin game” and are now in turnout mode. Of course, we will be watching all the counties. But the counties that interest me the most are those Republican counties in Southwest Florida. They have come in strong and early for the Republicans. But will the vote there start to level off? In 2016, 78% of the vote from Lee County and Miami-Dade County were pre-Election Day votes. However, the current turnout rate is 31.55% in Lee and only 17.64% in Miami-Dade. This means that there is a possibility of Lee County plateauing, while Miami-Dade turnout can continue to grow. And with the election model showing only  .24% gap between the two parties, that is better news for Democrats than Republicans.

You can see the latest projection model map here.

10 comments

  1. Sunday PB easily off-set by Panhandle that did not report yesterday.
    Actually the #’s were quite poor for Dems Sun.
    souls to polls netted almost no movement; thought D’s would net 40k++. Maybe next weekend better but now expect that GOP will lead next Friday by 120k+

    1. If you are right through Friday, that would be a nearly 118k vote swing to Rs going into the weekend vs 2016 at the same time (Dems picked up net 100k next Sat-Mon).

      https://fr-companion.wixsite.com/fr-companion

    2. Okay, not really true, but anyway. But hey, whatever floats your boat. I’m not here to confirm biases 🙂

      How do you account for the 510,000 NPA/Minor party voters? Do their votes not count?

  2. IMO The Dems had a good day but not good enough.

    Overall voting plunged yesterday, in part due to lack of VBM due to it being Sunday.

    Wondering if R’s will over-perform in Miami-Dade area, due to strong GOTV for FL-26 and 27?

    1. Yes on overperform in Dade.
      Terrible D candidate in 27

  3. Dave, What was the Dem net vote gain after the first Souls to the Polls in 14 and 16?

    1. I don’t have the daily numbers from those elections, so I can’t tell you. Sorry about that. All I can say is that at this point, Democrats were still behind Republicans. According to my model, Democrats never moved ahead of Republicans.

  4. PB and Orange in – no change in totals

    R exceeding registration in 61 of 67 Counties

    my observation on Broward is that D’s knocking out of park on %’s (as they usually do) but number of voters seems lacking …. maybe seriously.
    Not so much for D’s on PB … winning but %’s and #’s don’t look good for D’s

    we will see later in week

  5. Looking at it though differing data points I would say the Dems are slightly behind the ball right now. Don’t have to meet 2016 ratios but need to at least close all this EV gap before election day.

    1. But also, Democrats are doing significantly better in VBM than they had in 2014. In 2014, the gap was 6.8% between R and D in VBM TO. The gap now is 3.6%, and continues to shrink each day. As far EV, Republicans have a .13% lead right now. However, that is without Miami-Dade and Palm Beach’s new numbers, so Democrats probably have the lead. Anyway, the gap in 2014 was 2.8% for the Democrats. Yes, this decent gap, but there are also significantly more VBM ballots. Democrats closing the VBM gap by nearly half is extremely impressive.

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