Category Hurricane Ian
Ian: Wind probabilities by location in Florida as of 11 am – major changes
At 11 am ET, the NHC calculates these are the probabilities for Florida cities to experience Tropical Storm force winds between now and Saturday: Venice 99% Naples 98% Key West 97% Fort Myers 97% Tampa 96% Orlando 89% Melbourne 87% Daytona Beach 86% The Villages 82% Cedar Key 75% West Palm Beach 71% Jacksonville 68% […]
Tracking Ian: Southwest Florida landfall looking most likely now per DeSantis press conference
The 12z model runs have shifted ever slightly more south and east, making a landfall between Fort Myers and Sarasota most likely. I took to Twitter last night to say the NHC needed to add Charlotte, Lee and Collier counties to the Hurricane Warning area. They did add Lee and Charlotte this morning, but my […]
Florida Hurricanes since 1950 – category, landfall, intensity, deaths, etc
STORM CATEGORY AT LANDFALL DATE OF LANDFALL YEAR MAX WINDS (KTS) PRESSURE AT LANDFALL LOCATION OF LANDFALL FLORIDA DEATHS NOTES Easy 3 September 5 1950 105 ? Cedar Key 2 King 4 October 18 1950 115 ? Miami 3 Florence 1 September 26 1953 70 ? Fort Walton 0 Flossy 1 September 24 1956 75 […]
Ian – Southwest Florida now squarely in the target area, NHC late pivot in Watches and Warnings are a rare move
For many who follow on Twitter, they know I’ve felt for days Lee and Charlotte County would potentially get impacts from Ian. The Euro model never shifted that far west, and history tells us southwest Florida tends to be a magnet for storms in the Gulf. The uncertainty of the forecast has led to the […]
Florida’s September Hurricane History since 1935
With Ian barreling toward a Florida landfall, we recorded a special Florida History Podcast, reviewing Hurricanes that impacted Florida in September, beginning with the 1935 Labor Day Storm, the strongest ever storm to impact the United States. You can listen to the Florida History Podcast on Anchor (which hosts our show), Spotify, Google, Apple Podcasts, Radio Public, Breaker, Overcast, Castro or Pocket Casts. Overcast, Castro, Spotify, […]
Express Lane Sept 26: Tampa Bay Hurricane History, Charlie Crist in PR
As the state casts its eye on Ian and the constantly shifting models, one thing remains clear. The Tampa Bay Area which has not been directly hit by a Hurricane since 1921 (1968 if you count Citrus County) is going to get a real dose of what the rest of the state has suffered through. […]
Tracking Ian: This level of uncertainty is unusual – a look at the recent model runs
Some quick notes on Ian as of 6 pm ET -A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Lower Keys.
Preparing for Ian: Beyond the basics of storm tracking
Every Hurricane season, it’s important relearn some basics about storm tracking and advisories. 1- The cone which the NHC puts out in its advisories track the potential land fall spot for the CENTER OF CIRCULATION IN THE STORM. This does not mean bad weather is limited to areas within the cone. In fact, we have […]
The Florida Squeeze 