Monthly Archives: November 2022
Nicole: New Tropical Storm Warnings for the west coast, Hurricane Watch dropped for north of Volusia
At 4am ET the National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast ofFlorida north of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass. The Hurricane Watch from the Flagler/Volusia County Line to PonteVedra Beach Florida has been discontinued. It has been maintained for Broward County (from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton) […]
Nicole: Storm near Hurricane strength, a look at the models.
At 10 pm ET, Nicole now has maximum sustained winds of 70 MPH, putting it just below Hurricane strength. The storm is moving WSW at 10 MPH. Center is 325 miles east of West Palm Beach. The WSW dip was expected, and is likely why Broward County has a Hurricane Watch despite not being in […]
RED TIDE
The red wave election that has long been coming in Florida, finally came. For two decades, Florida Democrats have been dependent on national money and national help to keep the state competitive, and when left to their own devices have failed miserably. This election, was the first Florida Democrats had to run on their own, […]
Nowcast update: GOP surging, Simon takes slight lead over Ausley in SD-3 and link for election night video coverage beginning at 7 et/6 ct
Update: Turnout Rate: 40.61% Margin: GOP wins by 9.6% to 11.19% Dem Turnout: 41.16% Rep Turnout: 50.26% State Senate 3 Ausley (D): 49.9% Simon (R): 50.1% Below is the video link for tonight’s coverage.
SD 3: Ausley slightly ahead at 9 am per Nowcast
So, I applied my Enthusiasm Gap Nowcast to Florida Senate District 9. As of 9 AM, I have the results as: Ausley (D): 51.0% Simon (R): 49.0%. You can get the full Nowcast model at Voting Trend.
Nicole: Hurricane Warning issued from Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia line
At 10 am EST, The National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Warning from Boca Raton northward to the Flagler/Volusia county line. Forecast models now indicate a likely landfall for the storm somewhere between Stuart and Melbourne. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Flagler and St Johns County and has been kept in place […]
Seven indicators to watch tonight in the Governor’s race
1- How large is DeSantis’ margin in early reporting Pasco County 2- Does Crist maintain a “home field advantage” in Pinellas? 3- Does St Lucie which is trending red remain a bellwether or does it vote to the right of the state as a whole? 4- Will Democrats get the appropriate turnout in Broward, Orange […]
Subtropical Storm Nicole: Forecast track shifts north, west coast put under Tropical Storm Watch
At 4 am EST a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Bonita Beach (effectively the Collier-Lee line) noth to the mouth of Ocklohochnee River, bringing watches into Southwest Florida, the Tampa Bay are, and the Big Bend area. Additionally a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Miami-Dade County. […]
Nicole: Hurricane Watches issued for Florida’s east coast – Election Day impacts?
The National Hurricane Center had issued a Hurricane Watch for Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach and Broward counties regarding subTropical (at the moment) Storm Nicole. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the rest of the Florida east coast as well as Hendy, Highlands, Okeechobee Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties Modeling indicates the […]
Express Lane: Democrats make late gains, but is it too little, too late?, Trump v DeSantis, looking back at 1982 for clues about 2022, Storm Nicole.
After almost two weeks of unhindered GOP gains across the state, a mini-surge of Democratic early and vote-by-mail ballots trickled in across the state after about 4 pm Saturday. The Democratic trend continued Sunday to the point where our Dave Trotter’s Nowcast model, is currently showing the Democrats likely entering Election Day in a strong […]
The Florida Squeeze 