Nicole: Storm near Hurricane strength, a look at the models.

At 10 pm ET, Nicole now has maximum sustained winds of 70 MPH, putting it just below Hurricane strength. The storm is moving WSW at 10 MPH. Center is 325 miles east of West Palm Beach. The WSW dip was expected, and is likely why Broward County has a Hurricane Watch despite not being in the cone (which as we have said previously, should be retired) or projected to get Hurricane force winds at the moment.

The GFS model, shown below has consistently pushed the storm further south than other model guidance. The GFS model, while missing badly on Ian, has generally been one of the two most reliable storm projection models in the last decade, along with the EURO model.

Below is the projected wind-field based on the 4pm ET advisory. Most if not all of the peninsula could see Tropical Storm force winds. This graphic is from the Hurricane Tracker App.

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