Category 2022 Governor

Just how costly was Ron DeSantis “pussy cat-like” debate performance?

Governor DeSantis turned in arguably the worst debate performance by a sitting Governor in Florida’s history on Monday night. It was the worst performance by any Gubernatorial candidate since Bill McBride’s infamous mistake-filled 2002 debate vs Jeb Bush, that led directly to the biggest landslide election many of us remember in this state. The Governor […]

Lincoln Project drops on-point anti-DeSantis ad about tyranny


Express Lane: Do newspaper endorsements still matter and Whataboutism

On Friday, The Miami Herald Editorial Board penned the most articulate newspaper endorsement of a candidate we have ever seen in strongly endorsing Charlie Crist for Governor. In fact, the endorsement read like a synergy of multiple articles from this site, citing Governor DeSantis divisiveness, hypocrisy, disregard for the rule of law and destruction of […]

Florida Nowcast election update tonight @ 7:30 et members will have access to a call tonight where I will be answering questions about the election, current turnout and updated forecast for Florida. The call will be at 6:30 pm CT. Look for the link at the site in drop-down menu that is at the top right hand corner.

Crist property insurance ad should put DeSantis on the defensive

Unfortunately, due to funding issues much of Florida has not seen this ad, which is well done from the Crist campaign and properly put in context the property insurance situation then (when Crist was governor) and now (when Ron DeSantis is governor). The ad has been running for almost two weeks but again, is getting […]

Florida Nowcast update- 8 pm et tonight

We will go over my nowcast model and discuss the state of the race in Florida tonight at 8pm ET. You can watch the update below:

Express Lane: VBM numbers favor GOP early – but Palm Beach really cooking for the Democrats; Ian forces DeSantis to make election changes in certain counties

We’re now almost two weeks into the vote-by-mail distribution in several counties and the GOP appears in a more favorable position when compared to 2018 and 2020, both years they won at the top-of-the-ticket in the state. Thus far, with about 400,000 votes in statewide, the GOP is beginning to benefit from ballots that are […]

The Express Lane: With book closing day tomorrow, It’s voter registration, stupid

On yesterday’s TFS Twitter Space, conversations about Hurricane Ian and the Crist and Demings campaigns we ended up moving on to a topic which defines the malaise of Florida Democrats – voter registration. The GOP surge in voter registration relative to Democrats in the state over the course of the last two years has been […]

TFS Endorsements- Governor and Cabinet

Do we really need to explain this one? Our Kartik Krishnaiyer had a stab at it right after the primary and we echo his sentiments. Attorney General Ashley Moody has served as more-or-less a prosecutor for the DeSantistan wing of the GOP, using her perch to prosecute voters and local school districts rather than protecting […]

The Focus Group – Florida Man with Marc Caputo

Marc Caputo, of NBC News (former Politico, The Miami Herald, and The Palm Beach Post) knows Florida about as well as any political reporter in the last two decades. He sat in on this podcast with Sarah Longwell of The Bulwark , and it should be essential listening for all those who make political assumptions, […]