Category 2022 Elections
SD 3: Ausley slightly ahead at 9 am per Nowcast
So, I applied my Enthusiasm Gap Nowcast to Florida Senate District 9. As of 9 AM, I have the results as: Ausley (D): 51.0% Simon (R): 49.0%. You can get the full Nowcast model at Voting Trend.
Seven indicators to watch tonight in the Governor’s race
1- How large is DeSantis’ margin in early reporting Pasco County 2- Does Crist maintain a “home field advantage” in Pinellas? 3- Does St Lucie which is trending red remain a bellwether or does it vote to the right of the state as a whole? 4- Will Democrats get the appropriate turnout in Broward, Orange […]
Nicole: Hurricane Watches issued for Florida’s east coast – Election Day impacts?
The National Hurricane Center had issued a Hurricane Watch for Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach and Broward counties regarding subTropical (at the moment) Storm Nicole. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the rest of the Florida east coast as well as Hendy, Highlands, Okeechobee Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties Modeling indicates the […]
Express Lane: Democrats make late gains, but is it too little, too late?, Trump v DeSantis, looking back at 1982 for clues about 2022, Storm Nicole.
After almost two weeks of unhindered GOP gains across the state, a mini-surge of Democratic early and vote-by-mail ballots trickled in across the state after about 4 pm Saturday. The Democratic trend continued Sunday to the point where our Dave Trotter’s Nowcast model, is currently showing the Democrats likely entering Election Day in a strong […]
Express Lane: DeSantis as “god’s chosen instrument”, Antisemitism running rampant in DeSantis’ Florida, and latest on VBM/EV numbers
Note: Our writers are all active in campaigns in one form or another, so the timing of this column might be sporadic the next few days. This Ron DeSantis advertisement is about the most offensive one to secular people we have seen in recent Florida history. The irony being, the GOP as our Kartik Krishnaiyer […]
Express Lane: The coming Democrats Florida Senate debacle, Crist’s new ad buy, Orange County rent stabilization update, and our coming series on The Florida Turnpike
Florida Democrats are facing a potential wipe-out electorally on Tuesday – the worst cycle in recent history in terms of the State Senate (yes, Dems fell to 12 seats between 2010 and 2012 but that was after a sustained period sitting on 14 seats). The party which appeared poised to get to 18 or 19 […]
Express Lane: Is Crist’s momentum real? The disloyalty of Marco Rubio and Dems are absolutely being clobbered in Early Voting.
Charlie Crist’s campaign has been touting a poll by The Listener Group, that puts Crist up 7 points over Governor DeSantis. This poll has been touted as evidence of a Crist surge, which at least in terms of fundraising is real (Crist has raised about $2 million since his debate performance last Monday, and that […]
Express Lane: Forget the polling – Voter turnout is so low in Florida compared to other states, so anything can happen – but why is turnout so low? Some theories…
Democrats are getting clobbered in the Early Voting and Vote-by-Mail thus far in Florida, furthering a depression that the polling and general losing mentality of Florida Democrats already caused. But let’s get something straight – unlike places like Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada where we see GOPers eager to vote, GOP turnout is low […]
St Pete Polls: Eric Lynn in a dead heat in GOP-leaning CD-13
As we’ve discussed on our Nowcast videos the last two weeks, Pinellas County thus far is over-performing for Democrats relative to the rest of the state. Particularly the northern part of the county, where the newly redrawn CD-13 in anchored. Democrat Eric Lynn faces long odds to hold the seat for his party, but has […]
The Florida Squeeze 