Monthly Archives: October 2018
Hurricane Michael aftermath: Is banning alcohol sales in a storm zone a good idea? Can polling help in the future?
Let me start this piece by saying I am all for free expression and free will. I understand people have different ways of coping with danger and fear. Alcohol is one of them, for better or worse. In the case of countless storms in the past I’ve worried about the prospect of “hurricane parties” (like […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 10: more votes, small shifts
Day 10 into our vote projection model and we really don’t see that much of a change from Day 9. More votes have been cast and Democrats inch ever closer, but there was not a drastic shift in the electorate. Turnout Summary: As of this morning, 6.8% of voters in the State of Florida have […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 9: Palm Beach Dems Coming Home?
Day 9 into our projection model and Democrats continue to make gains. But will they be enough to make the difference? Possibly, but we don’t know yet. Turnout Summary: Overall turnout in the state, so far, is at 6.21%. The Republican turnout rate is at 7.76%, while Democratic turnout is at 6.36%. NPA/Other turnout is […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 8: Democrats are making gains.
Yesterday, we did not publish an article about the vote projection because I was away from the computer. However, we do have the new model up and Democrats are, slowly, gaining. Turnout Summary: As of right now, 5.43% of all voters have turned out to vote in Florida. As for party turnout, 6.8% of Republicans […]
Why are Florida Hurricanes becoming more deadly?
Editors note: At the time of publishing the AP reported a Florida death toll from Michael of 16. Our own TFS count is 19 based on local sources, but either way the number is certain to rise as rescue efforts continue. Michael could go down as the deadliest or second deadliest Florida Hurricane since 1935, a […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 6: Small gains for Democrats.
Yesterday, we decided to not publish any results from the Florida Vote Projection Model because only 7,000 new votes were submitted by mail, making only minimal change in the model. However, with a haul of over 100,000 votes being submitted yesterday, we are starting the see a shift, ever so slightly, toward the Democrats. However, […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 4: Democrats severely under-performing in VBM compared to 2016.
Overnight, Democrats were able to make some gains on the Republicans statewide. But the GOP still has the early advantage when in comes to the 2018 General Election. As of 8:00 AM this morning, over 327,000 people have voted in Florida, a 2.5% overall turnout rate. The Republican turnout rate 3.22%, while Democratic turnout rate […]
The politics of Michael – how past hurricanes impacted Florida’s elections
Hurricane Michael was a historic storm but just the latest to potentially impact Florida close to an election.
2018 FLORIDA VOTE PROJECTION MODEL – DAY 3
With over 280,000 votes in, we are starting to get a better idea of how November’s election might look. As of right now, it looks like it may be a repeat of the 2016 election cycle. Since the last model was presented, a few counties have flipped from the Democrats to the Republicans, with the […]
2018 Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 1
It is that time of year again. Everyone comes up with their predictions for the elections. Many in the prediction business, like Nate Silver, look at public opinion polling to determine voting behavior. Some, like the Larry Sabato, don’t use any methodology and just approach predictions in a crystal ball manner (hence the name of […]
The Florida Squeeze 