Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 8: Democrats are making gains.

Yesterday, we did not publish an article about the vote projection because I was away from the computer. However, we do have the new model up and Democrats are, slowly, gaining.

Turnout Summary: As of right now, 5.43% of all voters have turned out to vote in Florida. As for party turnout, 6.8% of Republicans have turned out to vote, while only 5.52% Democrats have turned out. NPA/Minor party turnout is at 3.53%. The Enthusiasm Gap is now at -8.25, which favors Republicans. While the overall gap is not great news for Democrats, the momentum is going Democratic. Four days ago, the Enthusiasm Gap is was -11.16%.

Bottom Line: As far as the projected vote, the generic statewide Republican vote is at 50.21%, while the generic Democratic vote is at 46.33%, which is only a 3.88% gap between the two parties, which is nearly a 50% reduction in the gap in the last four days. With more votes coming in on a daily basis, we might start seeing the Democratic numbers increase rapidly.

Details: The major change in the projection model is that Pinellas County has shifted to the Democrats, with the Democrats having a 1.19% lead in the new projection. Also, the Democrats continue to increase their margin in Broward County, with a .8% increase since the last model. Democrats have also seen a .62% increase in Duval County, a county where Democrats need to at least compete. So, the overall trend is favoring Democrats.

What to Watch For: One of the counties that might have Democrats worrying is Miami-Dade County. So far, more Republicans have voted by mail than Democrats. However, the same thing happened in 2014. In 2016, Democrats had the edge but not by much. With that, jumping to any conclusions as to what might happen in Miami-Dade County would not be wise. Instead, when the early vote comes in, Democrats should see a huge shift in Miami-Dade County.

Here is a link to the recent vote projection model. 

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