Monthly Archives: October 2018

Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 15: Republicans have figured out Early Voting, and Democrats need weekend miracle.

Bronough Street, we have a problem. That problem for Democrats is that Republicans have figured out early voting. The one “ace up the sleeve” for Democrats in Florida has been offset by an aggressive early voting campaign by Republicans. In fact, 7,152 more Republicans have voted early compared to Democrats. When Democrats make small gains […]

Tampa Bay area soccer fans owe Bill Edwards a big thank you

I’ll admit Bill Edwards hasn’t been my favorite owner of a soccer club in Florida. The somewhat gruff and yet flamboyant businessman who transformed St Petersburg’s downtown wasn’t a soccer fan when he bought the Rowdies in 2014, and did a great deal to irritate core soccer people during his tenure as owner. Edwards legacy […]

Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 14: GOP sees slight bump, but this race is still close.

With the overnight numbers now in, Democrats actually saw a loss in projected vote. However, the Enthusiasm Gap didn’t have much of a swing. So what does that really mean? Does this help Democrats or Republicans? Let’s delve into the numbers. Turnout Summary: So far, 2,041,138 people have voted in this election, which is a […]

Will Trump’s trade policies impact Florida’s electorate?

It’s been fashionable for Democrats to discuss how polarizing and racist President Trump is to justify predicting a “blue wave.” Meanwhile Republicans point to the economy’s apparent strength and the favorability of the tax cuts (don’t Republicans always laser-focus on tax cuts? For all the rhetoric Republicans spew, the party remains largely a single issue […]

Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 13: Big Momentum for Democrats with Vote by Mail ballots.

Over the last few days, there has been a momentous swing toward the Democrats in the latest projection model. Many might think that this is because the Democrats have performed well in early voting. But that really isn’t the case. Yes, Democrats are outperforming the Republicans by 2.28% on the early vote model, but Democrats […]

Farewell Mayor Campbell – A true giant who stood above a polarized Florida

Perhaps it’s an omen for me as to where politics is and why now is the best time to get out, for the second time in two months I have lost a political mentor. Coral Springs Mayor Skip Campbell, one of the true giants of politics and the legal profession in south Florida passed on […]

The needless race to the bottom of Orlando City SC in four short MLS seasons (with additional writer’s note)

Editors note: In order to bring more robust and diverse content to TFS we’re beginning to increase the number of posts of travel, history, weather and sports. This long-form piece on Orlando City SC, which is the byproduct¬†of years of reporting is part of that effort.¬† In reference to this piece a number of individuals […]

Florida vote projection model – Day 12: First two days of early voting might give Democrats false hope.

We are on Day 12 of our vote projection model for the 2018 general election in Florida. And I will admit, I am a bit hesitant to post the results. The reason why is that early voting numbers are currently missing in 35 counties. Of those 35 counties, only one (Osceola) voted against Donald Trump […]

Could the emerging I-95 corridor become the Dems Florida firewall? Environmental issues hurting the GOP badly it appears.

The vote projection models provided daily here at the Florida Squeeze by my colleague Dave Trotter have been invaluable to understanding how the 2018 election is shaping up to be potentially different than the most recent contests in this state. Growth rates have slowed in Florida over the last eight years and the population though […]

Florida vote projection model- Day 11: Good VBM trends for Democrats continue

Tomorrow, early voting starts which will change the dynamic of everything. However, vote-by-mail numbers are showing that there might be 200,000+ more votes cast by this method than in 2014. Also, if the 2016 trend continues, where early vote numbers are higher than VBM numbers, Democrats could be in a position of advantage. However, that […]