Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 14: GOP sees slight bump, but this race is still close.

With the overnight numbers now in, Democrats actually saw a loss in projected vote. However, the Enthusiasm Gap didn’t have much of a swing. So what does that really mean? Does this help Democrats or Republicans? Let’s delve into the numbers.

Turnout Summary: So far, 2,041,138 people have voted in this election, which is a 15.39% turnout rate. For Democrats, the turnout rate is 16.39%, while the Republican turnout rate is 18.62% and NPA/Minor party turnout at 9.88%. The Enthusiasm Gap is a -4.98, a .06% swing toward the Republicans.

Bottom Line: As of this morning, the average generic Democratic candidate statewide would be projected to win 48.11% of the vote, while the generic Republican statewide candidate would win 48.71%. a .6% gap. This means that yesterday’s vote represents a swing toward the Republicans by .19%.

Details: In all other previous models, the swing in the projected vote has mirrored the swing in the Enthusiasm Gap, meaning that this has been a base election. However, we now see a departure from that trend. What this means is that the composition of the electorate really hasn’t changed, but the vote has. And looking at these trends, it means that NPAs and minor party voters yesterday voted in larger numbers in heavily Republican areas compared to Democratic areas. So yes, yesterday’s ‘independents’ swung toward the Republicans; not by a large margin, but a significant margin that should make Democrats worry.

This also means that Democratic-leaning NPA/Minor party voters are not turning out in places where Democrats need them to turn out. The biggest example of this problem is Orange and Osceola Counties. In these counties, Republicans have the enthusiasm advantage because of a combination of lower Democratic turnout and lower NPA/Other turnout. In both of these counties, Democrats should have a projected vote well over 60%. If Democrats do not get NPAs out of vote in these two counties, not only can it hurt local candidates (like Stephanie Murphy), but could impact the ticket statewide. So yes, the I-4 Corridor still matters.

What to watch: Now that Democrats have taken the lead in St. Lucie County, it will be interesting to see if they can pull away from the Republicans. It will also be interesting to see if Seminole County flips to the Democratic side. It has been reluctant to do so far, so watch the model over the course of the day. Also, the projected Republican vote in Duval County has now dipped under 50%. On the other hand, will Sarasota County flip to the Republicans soon? The map could look quite different over the weekend.

Here is a link to the latest model map.


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