We are on Day 12 of our vote projection model for the 2018 general election in Florida. And I will admit, I am a bit hesitant to post the results. The reason why is that early voting numbers are currently missing in 35 counties. Of those 35 counties, only one (Osceola) voted against Donald Trump […]
The vote projection models provided daily here at the Florida Squeeze by my colleague Dave Trotter have been invaluable to understanding how the 2018 election is shaping up to be potentially different than the most recent contests in this state. Growth rates have slowed in Florida over the last eight years and the population though […]
Tomorrow, early voting starts which will change the dynamic of everything. However, vote-by-mail numbers are showing that there might be 200,000+ more votes cast by this method than in 2014. Also, if the 2016 trend continues, where early vote numbers are higher than VBM numbers, Democrats could be in a position of advantage. However, that […]
Let me start this piece by saying I am all for free expression and free will. I understand people have different ways of coping with danger and fear. Alcohol is one of them, for better or worse. In the case of countless storms in the past I’ve worried about the prospect of “hurricane parties” (like […]
Day 10 into our vote projection model and we really don’t see that much of a change from Day 9. More votes have been cast and Democrats inch ever closer, but there was not a drastic shift in the electorate. Turnout Summary: As of this morning, 6.8% of voters in the State of Florida have […]
Day 9 into our projection model and Democrats continue to make gains. But will they be enough to make the difference? Possibly, but we don’t know yet. Turnout Summary: Overall turnout in the state, so far, is at 6.21%. The Republican turnout rate is at 7.76%, while Democratic turnout is at 6.36%. NPA/Other turnout is […]
Yesterday, we did not publish an article about the vote projection because I was away from the computer. However, we do have the new model up and Democrats are, slowly, gaining. Turnout Summary: As of right now, 5.43% of all voters have turned out to vote in Florida. As for party turnout, 6.8% of Republicans […]
Editors note: At the time of publishing the AP reported a Florida death toll from Michael of 16. Our own TFS count is 19 based on local sources, but either way the number is certain to rise as rescue efforts continue. Michael could go down as the deadliest or second deadliest Florida Hurricane since 1935, a […]
Yesterday, we decided to not publish any results from the Florida Vote Projection Model because only 7,000 new votes were submitted by mail, making only minimal change in the model. However, with a haul of over 100,000 votes being submitted yesterday, we are starting the see a shift, ever so slightly, toward the Democrats. However, […]
Overnight, Democrats were able to make some gains on the Republicans statewide. But the GOP still has the early advantage when in comes to the 2018 General Election. As of 8:00 AM this morning, over 327,000 people have voted in Florida, a 2.5% overall turnout rate. The Republican turnout rate 3.22%, while Democratic turnout rate […]
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