Data tells us racism DID NOT fuel the Gillum/Nelson vote split. In fact the data may shock you…

Election night and the morning after many around the Democratic Party and the national chattering classes were spinning that racism must have been the reason Bill Nelson received more votes than Andrew Gillum statewide (outside ballot error-driven Broward County).

I pushed back on this suggestion because I don’t like the Democrats obsession with race and identity and felt there existed real ethical reasons for folks to vote against Andrew Gillum. But I will admit I was ill at ease thinking some Democrats might actually have cast ballots based on race.  

Interestingly exit poll data from Florida indicate Bill Nelson ran FOUR POINTS AHEAD OF ANDREW GILLUM AMONG BLACK VOTERS STATEWIDE. In comparison, Nelson ran identically with Gillum among Hispanics and a point ahead among whites (though Rick Scott got the same percentage among whites as Ron DeSantis – 1% in the Governors race went to third party candidates)  Compare the data below:

I’m not looking to take shots at individuals because this was concerted effort lazily pushed in the identity era among Democrats to explain Nelson getting more votes. However, I’ve picked a small selection of random tweets that are embedded below simply to demonstrate how people were thinking, based on assumptions spun by professional pols Election night and the next morning. 

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By Toa Nidhiki05 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=74496317

It’s important in the future instead of making assumptions about the “racist” motivations of voters in our state, voters who have cast ballots for some Democrats if those in and around the chattering classes waited for hard data. It’s a lesson that is there to be learned – but will those with an agenda heed it? 

36 comments

  1. Voters lie to pollsters all the time

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    1. Tough to square that this time because the exit polls in these two races were right on the mark in terms of the actual results. So if the 4% of black voters lied that they voted for DeSantis and Nelson for some sort of social acceptance the pollsters would have to manipulate other data in other groups and all the subsets to make the numbers work. It’s ridiculous to think this honestly.

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  2. YOU RACIST LIAR😡😡😡

    HOPE RACIST RON COMES FOR YOU WHITE POWER TIT SUCKING INDIANS.

    HALF THE DEMOCRATS AND ALL OF SWAG WILL CHEER IF HE COMES FOR YOU YOU RAT BASTARD. 🐭🐭🐭

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    1. I seriously doubt DeSantis is coming after Indians or any other ethnic group except in your imagination.

      What Democrat Swag are you talking about? Do the D’s sell shirts and scarves that will cheer DeSantis coming after me? I have no idea what you are talking about.

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      1. KuKluxKartik · ·

        SWAG = Statewide alignment group.

        Progressive heroes.

        But a racist like you wouldn’t know them, would you?

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    2. Insider Myself · · Reply

      Dude get help.

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      1. You fucking bastard · ·

        Fuck off and enjoy your cocktail parties with lilly white southern belle’s.

        Assholes like you are dying off. A new day and reckoning is coming.

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  3. I went to a few Democratic Party meetings in Polk during this year’s election and barely heard anything that could have been understood to be identity or racial politics. Your assumption that Democrats have an obsession with such politics is extremely overblown. From this perspective, I’d say it is the author of this article that has an obsession with identity politics. All the rest of us want is a government that works for all of the people.

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    1. Insider Myself · · Reply

      You obviously don’t hang around the FDP or Orange County Democratic Party do you? All they talk about is race.

      I wish the party did talk about issues. Maybe I should come to Lakeland.

      Liked by 1 person

    2. I’m glad to hear that about Polk and might explain why we’re doing better there than in the past. My whole premise is we need to be a values-based party, not one based on identity or simple reflexive opposition to Trump or Scott. Thanks for pointing this out, it’s VERY helpful going forward!

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  4. Um one real bad assumption you’ve made here is that the parry fueled this misconception – it was the media. People like Steve Kornacki and Joy Ann Reid we’re making sloppy, lazy agenda-driven assumptions election night on msnbc. That is NOT the party. You’re right that they were wrong. The data is clear. But it wasn’t the party but the media’s obsession with identity and Gillum as a rock star. You forget the party was with Gwen. Gillum being anointed the second coming was msnbc and cnn doing. Not the party. They wanted another Obama and then lazily blamed it on identity when he lost. Not the party.

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    1. Insider Myself · · Reply

      Joy Reid and the other msnbc hacks don’t say shit without clearing it with the party! If you don’t know that by now you are truly lost.

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      1. There will always be exceptions, but I can say with authority that this is not true re: Joy Reid, and Chris Hayes, as such I make the (assumption that Maddow as the station’s highest ratings earner) probably has full say regarding content on her show, as well. Reid isn’t checking in with the party at all, but she is ideologically aligned rather well so her point of view will naturally echo much of we hear inside. Also, she was clearly at odds with the FDP during the primary in her choice to bring on Gillum multiple times and she did the same with a couple of other candidates, as well.
        No conspiracy there; time to look elsewhere.

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    2. I’m not sure where the line is between the party and MSNBC these days, but maybe you are right. MSNBC seems to echo the party line an awful lots so I am not sure, but perhaps I did leap to an assumption. Still I heard it from operatives, but again those operatives may have taken their cue from MSNBC not the opposite.

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  5. Insider Myself · · Reply

    It’s just incredible reading the comments here. And you wonder why we keep loosing?

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  6. Democratic Gal · · Reply

    I thought all along Hamilton had more impact than race just from talking to folks. This confirms it. DeSantis illegally colluding with Adam Corey cost us the election. It was illegal and FDLE won’t investigate because Scott controls them.

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    1. You fucking bastard · · Reply

      Yeah

      Not a peep.

      KKKartik did raise it on Twitter and MARK CAPUTO fired back it was no big deal. KKKartik folded like a wet deck of cards sucking up to Caputo saying oh the bottom line is Gillum lies. 😡😡😡😡😡😡

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      1. I shouldn’t respond to you but the reason I backed down was because Caputo was right. The person raising it (you perhaps under another alias?) tweeted at Caputo, Adam Smith, Peter Scorsch and myself saying it was illegal. I said it was unethical IMO if Corey who is in big trouble himself fed DeSantis debate lines, but Gillum looked right into the camera and apparently lied. Caputo shot back that it wasn’t illegal and probably not unethical either. I agreed it was not illegal and reinforced that Gillum looked right into the camera and misled the public – hard evidence had surfaced 24 hours later in print contradicting Gillum’s comments.

        Do I think it was a little troubling DeSantis like a prosecutor put an unsuspecting Gillum on the stand in front of national TV cameras knowing full well the answer- YES! (Apparently- I think Corey and Gillum colluded though I have been told by some they don’t think they did, but from where I sit they HAD to for DeSantis to have gone on the line of questioning he did.) But does the bottom line remain Gillum’s instinct in that moment under fire was to prevaricate? Yep…

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    2. FDLE won’t investigate because no crime was committed.

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  7. Cross Burning Kartik · · Reply

    See fellow brown klansmen!

    I can manipulate data to serve you!

    I can be a useful dorky pointy head for you!

    This is my dorky way of burning crosses while sitting in mommies basement sitting in front of computer.

    LOSER!

    Come down to Paramore sometime tough keyboard warrior. You’ll get a can of ASS WHOOPING!

    Like

    1. Anonymous · · Reply

      I don’t really like Kartik

      He’s part of the reason we’ve gone so left and identity driven

      But he’s forsaken alignment with the rabble for citing facts lately

      He was right about Gillum. I voted for him but know what he is. He was right about the anti Semitic drift of the left even if he participated in it before.

      You are showing here making an example of him. Cross us and we will slander you so badly you can’t work or have any Dem cred again.

      Antifa and these left groups like dream defenders should all go to hell.

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      1. I wasn’t ever involved in anything antisemitic. It makes my blood boil, unless you are equating critiques of Israel to antisemitism. I believe they are two different things.

        HOWEVER, in the case of the Dream Defenders and Mark Lamont Hill among others, I believe its antisemitism because they don’t call out other places and regimes with similar treatment of an ethnic minority. So for example, I call out Bahrain’s treatment of Sunni’s, UAE’s treatment of Pakistani’s, Qatar’s treatment of Nepali’s, China’s treatment of Uigers, India’s treatment of Kashmiris, Sri Lanka’s treatment of Tamils etc AND Israel’s treatment of Palestinians.

        For the Dream Defender types and many on the left Israel and Russia are bogeymen but other regimes are ignored. My eyes are open now to identity and racial politics on the left. I realize they rip white leaders for oppressing brown or black people but won’t do the same when brown or black people oppress each other or whites. It’s pretty clear to me now why that is. I abhor all racism and attempts at ethnic cleansing. But it’s not just white people who engage in it. Period.

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      2. Yes this is the goal. Total fealty to their position or they’ll label you as corrupt or a racist. Crazy.

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  8. Anonymous · · Reply

    The data says something very clear we do not like

    We therefore question the data and throw stones

    My god you people are dense

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  9. The trolls are out in full force again.

    Kartik don’t listen to them. You’re doing good work.

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  10. Seth Platt · · Reply

    Kartik, an exit poll of 3109 respondents from who knows where is not good data. Why not wait till the whole picture is released before making assumptions?

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    1. 1- This data is better than the assumptions people were making on personal biases/preferences without any evidence.
      2- Exit polling is seen by many as the best way to get demographic breakdowns of voting preferences. Voter data tells who voted but not whom they voted for. Ballots remain secret in Florida. Perhaps we should legislatively address that so we can accurately call out all the racists by name that voted for the white candidates? We could eliminate the secret ballot. That might be the best thing to do. But statutorily as of now we can’t get that data so exit polling remains the most reliable way to determine this. Is it flawed? Sure, but no more than any other polling data – in fact it’s probably more reliable as it is a snapshot on Election Day not weeks or months out.

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    2. An exit poll of 3109 voters (not likely voters) is a pretty damn good sample.

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  11. KuKluxKartik · · Reply

    I’m waiting for the Brown Klansman film that will hit KKKartik

    For LYING ABOUT GILLUM. SLANDERING HIM BY PLANTING LIES WITH THE FBI A RACIST ORGANIZATION AND OTHER MEDIA.🙄

    For backing to the end a Dixiecrat cracker probably former racist like Nelson.

    For writing a post calling DeSantis rightly a racist. Best piece he’d ever written but being paid off??? to change it to DeSantis “might” be a racist and let’s hope he isn’t. Then writing a whole narrative about racist democrats and their links to the klan.

    Of course he’d know because he’s with the klan himself!

    Like

  12. Anonymous · · Reply

    This is hilarious

    Does not say a damn thing

    Just cites polls and pushes back on knee jerk hot takes

    But the comments act like this is some long form Nazi attack piece on African Americans.

    Some funny shit here

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  13. KuKluxKartik no longer · · Reply

    KK has redeemed himself with the Scott article on Snipes.

    Now let’s call a truce and get that article and Scott attempts at racist voter suppression out there!

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  14. The blue wave hit nearly everywhere except for Florida and Ohio. Hell, it even hit Utah.

    Almost all of the remarks on here show why Democrats are losing in Florida. They take no responsibility whatsoever and always find a scapegoat for their loss. But what Kartik says is pure, simple, and true; race didn’t hurt Gullum. In fact, in some places that have a higher African-American population, Nelson outperformed Gillum. The reverse happened in latte-sipping white liberal enclaves.

    But it is the same goddamn thing every time….Democrats run campaigns with horrible consultants, many of whom moonlight as crazy-haired activists. They lose. They then say “oh, it isn’t our fault, it is those damn racists….or sexists….or (insert identity politics label here)ists. It can’t be us”. The cycle repeats….same consultants…another loss…blame someone…it isn’t our fault…repeat cycle.

    What is even worse it that all of the data (if you know what you are doing) was pointing toward a GOP win since the first day of VBM. However, Matt Isbell, with his pretty maps but lack of any methodology, and Steve Schale, who takes some “shooting a dart blindfolded” approach to forecasting, said Democrats would do well or win. But again, if they knew what they were doing, and knew how to read data, they would have known that this wasn’t the case (as they apparently didn’t account for Election Day). And I am sure that there are consultants all up and down Florida Democratic circles that provided horrible advice…but I can’t speak to their services. I can only speak about those in my field of expertise.

    Florida Democratic consultant do not understand the electorate in Florida, pure and simple! It is time for Democratic consultants to face the damn music, not everyone is a latte-sipping hipster from Winter Park who gets on their Peloton every morning, and then goes out to dinner and bitches that the Thai food that they are eating is “not authentic enough”, and look down at anyone that totally fine with having a Big Mac. However, Democrats think that every voter knows someone with a man bun, and that the average voter in suburban Florida is just as stuck up as their are. I hate to break the news to you, but they aren’t!

    If anything, the vote against Democrats in Florida was a rejection of hipster elitism, or what we used to call “Northeast elitism” (which usually focuses solely on identity politics). Most suburban voters and ALL rural voters don’t like you…they look at most of you as whiny sissies that think that everyone deserved a “participation trophy”, and if you don’t get your way, you cry that “it’s not fair”. And yet, these “everyone is a winner”, not-in-touch-with-reality hipster charlatans act as if they have some sort of moral superiority, and look down at anyone who is not one of them, especially those who live in rural Florida.

    If you look at Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in New York (anti-establishment on the left), and Ben McAdams in Utah (establishment center), their message was identical! Ocasio-Cortez is Hispanic, and McAdams ran against the only black Republican woman ever to sit in Congress. But did identity politics play a role in their races? Nope, not at all. Race was never even an issue. However, as soon as Gillum won the nomination, race became front-and-center of the campaign. DeSantis laid a trap with his comments and Fox News, and, just like clockwork, Democratic consultants in Florida gobbled that up like it was the last scraps of food on the table! You just can’t control yourself.

    So yeah, you can say what you like. You can call Kartik what you want. Hell, I have been called things in the past as well. So we are used to it. But in the end, the truth is the truth. Kartik and I have been right every damn time, and the Democratic consultants in Florida have been wrong….EVERY DAMN TIME! And the fact that the establishment Democrats in Florida are constantly wrong, yet suffer no consequences from their bad advice, makes Florida Democratic politics the best Ponzi scheme out there.

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  15. Florida Progressive Voter · · Reply

    This is really useful and on the mark. It’s unfortunate so many here resort to lazy stereotypes and name-calling. We lose because we’re not talking issues, not empowering people and come across as angry whiners.

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  16. I am taken a back by these numbers.

    45% of Hispanics voted for Republicans?

    Really?

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  17. […] Krishnaiyer pointed out, exit polling the most reliable post election data we get showed Nelson ran several points ahead of Gillum statewide among African-Americans.  His post was followed by angry comments either accusing him of racism or challenging the […]

    Like

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