Category 2022 Elections
Welcome to Voting Trend – a robust daily look at Florida turnout and voting
We will be posting a fresh Nowcast turnout model for 2022 everyday for premium members and other features for general members at my new website Voting Trend. In 2018 and 2020 our Nowcast model that was featured on The Florida Squeeze was the most accurate model in the state, projecting both Ron DeSantis and Donald […]
TFS School Board Endorsements
BrevardErin Dunn, District 2 BrowardSteven R. Julian District 6 Dr. Allen Zeman AT LARGE EscambiaRaymond Guillory District 2 Flagler Courtney VandeBunte District 2 HernandoCatherine Hatch District 1 Indian RiverCindy Gibbs District 2 LeeKathy Fanny District 1 Debbie Jordan District 4 Leon Alex Stemle District 4 ManateeHarold Byrd District 2 OrangeMichael Daniels District 3 Osceola Will […]
Supreme Court merit retention: Retain Labarga, reject Couriel, Grosshans, Polston and Canady
Under Governor DeSantis the Florida Supreme Court has taken a more radical Federalist Society styled turn. The politicization of the court means voters must reject the senior Ricky Polston and Chief Justice Charles Canady, while also throwing out DeSantis appointees John Couriel and Jamie Grosshans. Vote no on retaining all four. We recommend retaining Justice […]
Express Lane: Ian fallout for Crist, DeSantis, Central Florida and the citrus industry
President Biden’s kind words about Governor DeSantis during a joint appearance on Wednesday in Ian-ravaged SW Florida makes a difficult task for Crist even more difficult. The response to Ian from the governor, points to DeSantis being efficient privately as a executor of governance and coordination with federal and local authorities, while publicly trashing the […]
Express Lane: Taddeo’s huge endorsement; John Dailey’s “October Surprise” and Ben Sasse to UF!?!
Al Cárdenas, isn’t just another GOPer. He was the Chair of the Florida GOP, President of the American Conservative Union, Chair of CPAC and an ever-present media figure during the Bush years. But like many Bush Republicans, this new DeSantis-styled MAGA party has left him politically homeless to an extent. Still, his endorsement of Democrat […]
Five State House races to watch
By Joe Dye The Florida State House will not be a competitive chamber for the foreseeable future, if ever again at this point. Florida’s increasing GOP lean, combined with the maximization of GOP-lean and likely seats, through the redistricting process, as well as countless past missed opportunities by the Democrats has rendered the chamber uncompetitive. […]
Bill Cramer, Jack Eckerd, Charlie Crist and the Pinellas GOP
Dave Trotter joins me to look at the GOP in Pinellas County – Florida’s first county to flip to the GOP also boasted the most moderate strain that party had in the state throughout the 1970’s, 80’s and 90’s. The change in the GOP statewide is typified by former GOP Governor Charlie Crist of St […]
Ron DeSantis’ “Dukakis moment” graces billboard near Governor’s Mansion
A group opposed to right-wing hate activity is up with a new billboard depicting Gov. Ron DeSantis in one of his infamous “tough guy” photo-ops — just blocks away from the Governor’s Mansion in Tallahassee. The group Florida Extremist Watch is running the billboard ad, including longtime activist and ally of progressive causes Thomas Kennedy. […]
Express Lane: DeSantis lead now double-digits- Our lengthy analysis and a welcome to our newest writer
A new Mason-Dixon poll has dropped and it gives Governor DeSantis an overwhelming lead in this November’s Governor’s race. In fact, Politico’s Gary Fineout calls it a “Red Wave Alert.” The numbers certainly are not encouraging from the Crist perspective, and reflect the bump DeSantis got from Hurricane prep – the poll was taken September […]
The Florida Squeeze 