Author Archives: Dave Trotter
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 10: more votes, small shifts
Day 10 into our vote projection model and we really don’t see that much of a change from Day 9. More votes have been cast and Democrats inch ever closer, but there was not a drastic shift in the electorate. Turnout Summary: As of this morning, 6.8% of voters in the State of Florida have […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 9: Palm Beach Dems Coming Home?
Day 9 into our projection model and Democrats continue to make gains. But will they be enough to make the difference? Possibly, but we don’t know yet. Turnout Summary: Overall turnout in the state, so far, is at 6.21%. The Republican turnout rate is at 7.76%, while Democratic turnout is at 6.36%. NPA/Other turnout is […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 8: Democrats are making gains.
Yesterday, we did not publish an article about the vote projection because I was away from the computer. However, we do have the new model up and Democrats are, slowly, gaining. Turnout Summary: As of right now, 5.43% of all voters have turned out to vote in Florida. As for party turnout, 6.8% of Republicans […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 6: Small gains for Democrats.
Yesterday, we decided to not publish any results from the Florida Vote Projection Model because only 7,000 new votes were submitted by mail, making only minimal change in the model. However, with a haul of over 100,000 votes being submitted yesterday, we are starting the see a shift, ever so slightly, toward the Democrats. However, […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 4: Democrats severely under-performing in VBM compared to 2016.
Overnight, Democrats were able to make some gains on the Republicans statewide. But the GOP still has the early advantage when in comes to the 2018 General Election. As of 8:00 AM this morning, over 327,000 people have voted in Florida, a 2.5% overall turnout rate. The Republican turnout rate 3.22%, while Democratic turnout rate […]
2018 FLORIDA VOTE PROJECTION MODEL – DAY 3
With over 280,000 votes in, we are starting to get a better idea of how November’s election might look. As of right now, it looks like it may be a repeat of the 2016 election cycle. Since the last model was presented, a few counties have flipped from the Democrats to the Republicans, with the […]
2018 Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 1
It is that time of year again. Everyone comes up with their predictions for the elections. Many in the prediction business, like Nate Silver, look at public opinion polling to determine voting behavior. Some, like the Larry Sabato, don’t use any methodology and just approach predictions in a crystal ball manner (hence the name of […]
Out with the old…Changing the name of the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner.
History. For years, annual Democratic fundraising galas nationwide have been called the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner. Of course, the reason for this is because of the historical context of the two men involved. Thomas Jefferson is considered the father of Democratic Party (under the Democratic-Republican Party, also known as Jeffersonian Democrats), and Andrew Jackson was the first […]
Performance Measures: How is the Florida Democratic Party doing?
Over the last few days, Florida’s mainstream media has been quite critical Florida Democratic Party. The Tampa Bay Times’ Adam Smith, who has been favorable to FDP political director Christian Ulvert in the past, has now come out and said that Democrats should be worried because of the lack of candidate recruitment by the party, among […]
Is SunRail the right choice for Central Florida? – Part Two.
Here is Part Two of the SunRail article, which will look at the cost effectiveness of this system compared to other systems of comparable sizes. Since the main goal of this research is to determine whether the SunRail project is economically sound for Central Florida, the units of analysis for this research will be other […]
The Florida Squeeze 