Author Archives: Dave Trotter
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 19: Record pre-Election Day voting benefiting both sides. Democrats have big problems in Orange/Osceola.
First, the projection map has been updated. It has a lot more detail than previous maps, including turnout tabs. So, enjoy the new map. Also, there is going to be a new model with new methodology out (due to the changes in pre-Election Day polling). The old model will remain up, but the new model […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 18: Voting patterns are seeing shifts in vote.
Overnight, the margin went slightly in the Republican’s favor. However, the overall trends continue to show that this is going to be a close race. As I have mentioned in the last two posts, it is a turnout game now. But how that turnout is happening is quite interesting. Let’s take a look. Turnout Summary: […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 17: Good Sunday for Democrats. Still waiting on Palm Beach County.
First, before I get into the analysis, I just want to say that we are still waiting for the early vote and vote by mail report from Palm Beach County to be submitted to the Division of Elections. You figured after the 2000 election that Palm Beach County would have gotten their act together, but […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 16: First Saturday of early voting is a dud for Democrats, and Governor DeSantis is becoming a strong possibility.
Since the World Series is going on, let’s use a baseball simile. It’s the bottom of the 9th, and the team that is losing is down by one run. They need to get a runner in scoring position, or at least on first base, tie up the game. Instead, the first batter goes three and […]
Formula 1 in Miami…a good idea?
In 2009, there were no Formula 1 races on the North American continent. Later today, the Grand Prix of Mexico will be the third North American race this year, and will be the grand prix that determines if Lewis Hamilton of Mercedes wins the championship, or if Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel lives to fight another […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 15: Republicans have figured out Early Voting, and Democrats need weekend miracle.
Bronough Street, we have a problem. That problem for Democrats is that Republicans have figured out early voting. The one “ace up the sleeve” for Democrats in Florida has been offset by an aggressive early voting campaign by Republicans. In fact, 7,152 more Republicans have voted early compared to Democrats. When Democrats make small gains […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 14: GOP sees slight bump, but this race is still close.
With the overnight numbers now in, Democrats actually saw a loss in projected vote. However, the Enthusiasm Gap didn’t have much of a swing. So what does that really mean? Does this help Democrats or Republicans? Let’s delve into the numbers. Turnout Summary: So far, 2,041,138 people have voted in this election, which is a […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 13: Big Momentum for Democrats with Vote by Mail ballots.
Over the last few days, there has been a momentous swing toward the Democrats in the latest projection model. Many might think that this is because the Democrats have performed well in early voting. But that really isn’t the case. Yes, Democrats are outperforming the Republicans by 2.28% on the early vote model, but Democrats […]
Florida vote projection model – Day 12: First two days of early voting might give Democrats false hope.
We are on Day 12 of our vote projection model for the 2018 general election in Florida. And I will admit, I am a bit hesitant to post the results. The reason why is that early voting numbers are currently missing in 35 counties. Of those 35 counties, only one (Osceola) voted against Donald Trump […]
Florida vote projection model- Day 11: Good VBM trends for Democrats continue
Tomorrow, early voting starts which will change the dynamic of everything. However, vote-by-mail numbers are showing that there might be 200,000+ more votes cast by this method than in 2014. Also, if the 2016 trend continues, where early vote numbers are higher than VBM numbers, Democrats could be in a position of advantage. However, that […]
The Florida Squeeze 