Presidential vote by Florida Congressional District

By Tom Arthur from Orange, CA, United States (vote for better tape) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons

The Daily Kos has for the third straight presidential cycle provided an invaluable resource – Presidential vote by congressional district. Below is the chart for Florida. Note these vote percentages are based on the CURRENT district lines not where the districts lines were in the 2008 or 2012 elections.  The analysis from The Daily Kos is worth reading as well.  It’s important to view these numbers within a national context (thus the Kos analysis is a must read) but all politics are local so Florida Democrats and local DEC’s have to react to the vote decline shown clearly here in significant portions of the state.

 

CD Incumbent Party Clinton
2016
Trump
2016
Obama 2012 Romney 2012 Obama 2008 McCain 2008
FL-01 Gaetz, Matt (R) 28.2 67.5 30.1 68.5 32.0 66.8
FL-02 Dunn, Neal (R) 30.6 66.2 34.0 64.6 35.2 63.4
FL-03 Yoho, Ted (R) 40.2 56.2 41.9 56.6 44.2 54.6
FL-04 Rutherford, John (R) 34.1 62.1 32.8 66.1 34.8 64.2
FL-05 Lawson, Al (D) 61.3 35.9 63.6 35.4 63.2 35.9
FL-06 DeSantis, Ron (R) 39.9 56.9 46.6 52.2 50.1 48.7
FL-07 Murphy, Stephanie (D) 51.4 44.1 49.4 49.4 51.1 48.0
FL-08 Posey, Bill (R) 37.7 58.4 42.1 56.6 43.8 54.9
FL-09 Soto, Darren (D) 54.8 41.9 55.6 43.4 54.6 44.5
FL-10 Demings, Val (D) 61.8 34.9 60.7 38.4 60.9 38.5
FL-11 Webster, Dan (R) 32.5 64.8 39.8 59.2 42.6 56.1
FL-12 Bilirakis, Gus (R) 38.8 57.4 45.5 53.0 47.4 51.2
FL-13 Crist, Charlie (D) 49.6 46.4 54.6 43.9 55.5 43.0
FL-14 Castor, Kathy (D) 57.2 39.0 57.6 41.2 58.1 40.9
FL-15 Ross, Dennis (R) 43.1 53.1 46.6 52.2 46.7 52.1
FL-16 Buchanan, Vern (R) 43.0 53.7 45.1 53.7 47.7 51.2
FL-17 Rooney, Tom (R) 35.0 62.2 41.3 57.6 43.9 54.7
FL-18 Mast, Brian (R) 44.1 53.3 47.7 51.4 51.2 47.9
FL-19 Rooney, Francis (R) 37.5 59.6 38.7 60.5 42.3 56.8
FL-20 Hastings, Alcee (D) 80.2 18.1 82.5 17.1 80.9 18.6
FL-21 Frankel, Lois (D) 58.6 39.1 60.4 38.9 63.4 35.9
FL-22 Deutch, Ted (D) 56.8 41.0 56.3 43.0 58.3 41.0
FL-23 Wasserman Schultz, Debbie (D) 61.9 35.8 61.4 38.0 62.0 37.3
FL-24 Wilson, Frederica (D) 83.0 15.3 85.7 13.9 84.0 15.6
FL-25 Diaz-Balart, Mario (R) 47.9 49.6 44.9 54.5 40.6 58.8
FL-26 Curbelo, Carlos (R) 56.7 40.6 55.4 43.9 51.5 47.9
FL-27 Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana (R) 58.6 38.9 53.0 46.3 50.1 49.3

Some key observations:

  • Ron DeSantis district is a classic example of how the Democrats have lost the white vote outside of large urban areas. From an Obama-supporting district in 2008 to a nearly twenty point Trump district in 2016, FL- 06 mirrors the vote decline for Democrats in similar districts across the country. A quick look at the full Daily Kos table will show the trend is found across the country in similar districts.
  • The largely Latino/Hispanic districts in southeast Florida movement toward the Democrats from 2008 to 2016 mirror that of similar urban districts around the nation.
  • Brian Mast’s seat FL-18 which was held by Democrat Patrick Murphy from 2012 to 2016 is trending Republican. That’s because the Democratic strengths in northern Palm Beach county have dissipated almost completely since 2008 and St Lucie County has been more or less stagnant (and split – a true Florida bellwether) if not trending slightly Republican during the period. Martin County has remained strongly Republican.
  • The growing weakness of the Democrats in Palm Beach County can be seen in the decline of Democratic numbers from 2008 to 2016 in the Lois Frankel and Ted Deutch districts which if you closely observe similar districts around the country in The Daily Kos analysis you’ll note that Hillary Clinton generally performed as well if not better than President Obama did. Palm Beach County is for whatever reason trending away from national trends in urban areas and behaving much more like Hillsborough County with its split of urban and suburban voters being quite pronounced, much like the country was in the 1980’s. Since the early 1990’s suburbs have shifted toward the Democrats and generally are reliably Democratic around most large urban areas outside the south today.
  • FL-13 a largely white district in Pinellas County that has long favored Democrats at the top of the ticket is now trending Republican. The Presidential results from Pinellas County came as shock to many on Election Night and much like 2004, when early Pinellas numbers set the tone for George W. Bush’s Florida win, Trump’s momentum statewide seemed to emanate from here. The five point decline from Obama in 2012 to Clinton in 2016 is highly significant in the area now represented by moderate Republican turned conservative Republican turned liberal Independent turned populist Democrat turned Blue Dog Democrat Charlie Crist.

One comment

  1. By my count, only 3-4 swing districts. Five districts are minority-packed (resulting in bleaching of surrounding districts), with 60%+ Clinton voters (5, 10, 20, 23 and 24). If 20+23+24 were not packed, that would have swung districts 18 and 25, and maybe 17. Districts 5 and 10, unpacked, could have swung at least one other district each.

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