Election Day LIVE!

November 8, 2016 · by · in 2016 Legislative Races, 2016 Presidential, 2016 US Senate Race

6:00pm ET Kartik (@kkfla737)

All indications are positive for the Democrats…but I remind people that 2004 fooled many analysts. Granted that was before the days of Twitter and Nate Silver, etc but Democratic confidence was supremely high at 6:00pm ET…by 7:30 pm ET I was convinced John Kerry had lost the state.

5:00pm  ET Kartik (@kkfla737)

Several updates from around the state.

  • Election Day turnout in the Western Panhandle heavily military and REpublican areas appears to be light.
  • Confidence is growing that the record Latino/Hispanic turnout in addition to a weaker than expected Election Day turnout in some Republican areas will carry the state for Clinton and just might push Patrick Murphy over the top.
  • Voters casting ballots today appear more educated on the ramifications of Amendment 1 than many who voted early or by mail.
  • Some exurban Republican areas continue to have decent turnout and I am told the Tampa suburbs of Brandon, Lutz and Riverview have had decent turnout today. All three favor the GOP.
  • Turnout is very low in Broward and Palm Beach, but isn’t it always? CORRECTION –  due to early voting and VBM spiking numbers it appears overall turnout in both counties might end being quite high.
  • I am hearing that the GOP is concerned about the wave of Hispanic/Latino turnout not just in southeast Florida but also in Orange, Osceola and Polk counties.
  • African-American turnout in Jacksonville appears to have been decent today.

3:15pm ET Kartik (@kkfla737)

Hearing multiple reports of ticket splitters in southeast Florida. Clinton for President, Rubio for Senate. This was after all what we feared.

3pm ET — Brook (@nashville_brook)

Very first Election Day results in

“DIXVILLE, N.H. — Donald Trump is off to a very early lead in the 2016 presidential election, winning over the voters of three New Hampshire precincts by a 32-25 margin over Hillary Clinton.

Polls in the tiny New Hampshire towns of Dixville, Hart’s Location and Millsfield opened just after midnight Tuesday and closed as soon as everyone had voted. These die-hard voters are proud to have the first word on the big vote.

Clinton won more votes in Dixville and Hart’s Location, but Trump was the overwhelming favorite in Millsfield, with a 16-4 edge.

Libertarian Gary Johnson picked up three votes. Bernie Sanders, John Kasich and 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got write-in votes.”

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/very-first-election-day-results-in/

 

1:35 pm ET — Brook (@nashville_brook)

Visited more polling sites down East Colonial and off Dean Road — again, no lines. I guess, look out for the after-work crowd.

 

12:15 pm ET – Kartik (@kkfla737)

Confidence is permeating the Democratic ranks. Those whom I speak to around the state are upbeat. Not only will Clinton win but the feeling is that it could be a 3-4% win. That might be just enough for Pat Murphy as well who generally is running 3-4% behind Clinton in polling. It is worth noting growing confidence also that Amendment 1 might just fail to get the 60% needed to be placed in state constitution.

Democrats have been confident before and wrong in Florida – however we have more in the way of hard metrics this time, so I place a little more faith in these prognostications than in the past.

11:10 am ET – Kartik (@kkfla737)

I have been distracted the last hour with events abroad – in India specifically where Prime Minister Modi has introduced a radical corruption fighting method. This gambit is high risk, high reward. I’m not a Modi fan but this might just work and shows what REAL leadership and risk taking looks like. Short-term could be disastrous for the Indian economy as all big bills are withdrawn from circulation and cease to be legal tender. Long-term it might just choke the black market and funding for terrorism.

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10:50 am ET — Brook  (@Nashville_Brook)

Just voted. NO LINE. Did drive-by for two other polling sites. No lines at either. This will likely change at lunch.

On election day if you want to turn in your ballot they make you fill out a new one and surrender the old one. This gave me the opportunity to change some votes, and it’s amazing how different you feel about certain decisions depending on whether you’re at a polling place or at your desk at home. Was able to cast protest votes on Supreme Court judge rentions (Canady and Polston) — I usually never vote ‘no’ on retentions.

If you’re like me and were a Bernie person voting for HRC, you might think about it this way: “This is the beginning of a very long relationship.” There will be give and take.

10:30 am ET

From the Sun Sentinel

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10:10 am ET

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9:45 am ET — Brook wrote…

Who sat on her mail-in ballot to get all the robocalls and direct mail until the last minute? This girl! Headed out to my precinct to VOTE on election day (what am I, crazy?), and to drive-by some others in East Orlando to report on lines.

 

9:30 am ET

In 2004 I called Florida for Bush the second I saw the returns from Pasco County. Joe Lockhart and the Kerry Campaign insisted Florida could be won until 1am. I knew at 7:30pm we had lost the state.

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8:25 am ET

New St Pete Polls shows Clinton pulling away from Trump in Florida and Murphy with a slight lead over Rubio (essentially a dead heat).

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/226700-new-florida-poll-shows-hillary-clinton-3-point-lead-donald-trump-tight-race-marco-rubio-patrick-murphy

8:20 am ET

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8:00 am ET

A reminder from PolitFact Florida as to accuracy of claims by US Senate candidates during the most recent debate.

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7:50 am ET

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7:00 am ET – Kartik

Nate Silver’s last Florida projection,
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/

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