With the qualifying process complete we have updated our State House Race Ratings and will do so every Sunday from now until the election. Our Congressional Race Ratings will return this Wednesday on a weekly basis as well now that NRCC and DCCC decisions have been made regarding multiple Florida seats.
A general trend towards the Republicans has taken place since our initial ratings four weeks ago. We have moved a total of nine seats towards the Republicans in the past four weeks including HD-120 where moderate Republican Rep. Holly Raschein failed to draw a Democratic opponent. In a report produced for House Democrats over a year ago, HD-120 was rated as the most Democratic seats currently held by a Republican in the state.
Another seat that has been a bugaboo of sorts is HD-21 held by Rep. Keith Perry. While Jon Uman was ultimately not the Democrats first choice, Charlie Crist is doing very well in this area and Uman’s ability to pump some money into the campaign has moved the seat to “toss-up.” The numbers just do not favor the Republicans here if Charlie Crist performs well at the top of the ticket for the Democrats. In many ways, Perry whose own local ties and constituent service helped save him in 2012 may lose control of his own fate if Crist gets the number he is capable of garnering.
We have made several other changes, moving several seats that are on paper winnable for the Democrats in the Safe or Likely Republican categories based on the poor candidate recruitment efforts by the Democrats in these particular seats.
Two Democratic held seats, HD-47 where incumbent Linda Stewart faces a tough challenge and HD-112 where Jose Javier Rodriguez is being hurt by Crist’s weakness at the top of the ticket among Cuban-Americans have been moved to “Toss-Up”. In regards to HD-47, the initial rating of “Leans Democrat” was based on my hunch, a general feeling rather than the evidence that was becoming overwhelming that it was in fact a “Toss-Up” seat. Nothing dramatic has happened there since June 1 to change the assessment but moving it is merely correcting my decision to out the seat in a column where it probably did not belong.
Several other seats are teetering on the edge of each category. I won’t list them today but multiple changes are possible in the next several editions of these ratings.
I would also remind our readers that this is not a prediction but a snapshot in time. It is entirely possible if trends go one way or another at the top of the ticket a dramatic shift will occur on this list in the coming weeks and months.
All seats not listed are assumed safe for the party of the current incumbent at this point in time (this includes open seats).
HD-84 (Lee) MOVED FROM LEANS DEMOCRAT
HD-21 (Perry) MOVED FROM LEANS REPUBLICAN
HD-47 (Stewart) MOVED FROM LEANS DEMOCRAT
HD-112 (Rodriguez) MOVED FROM LEANS DEMOCRAT
HD-67 (Open) MOVED FROM LEANS REPUBLICAN
HD-69 (Peters) MOVED FROM LEANS REPUBLICAN
HD-114 (Fresen) MOVED FROM LEANS REPUBLICAN DUE TO NPA CANDIDATE
MOVED FROM LIKELY REPUBLICAN TO SAFE REPUBLICAN
You are generally on the money but I am telling you Keith Perry is not losing to Dan Uman.
When Mark Pafford botched the recruitment of Debbie Boyd he essentially lost us the seat or any chance at it.
I don’t know why you think Crist is doing well there. Scott will do well enough to keep Perry in place.
I gotta agree. Crisafulli, Bradley, and many other Republicans were at Perry’s kick-off this week, so look for large fundraising to start pouring in – Jon Uman has posted descent numbers for a Democrat, but nothing like Perry can bring in. This is my district and it seems like Perry is pretty safe.
In my predictions, I currently have Uman’s chance of winning by slightly over Perry by 50.82% likelihood. That is primarily because Uman is outraising him right now. In the next few months, I expect the GOP to put tons of money into Perry and that will switch it to being strongly for Perry.
I strongly disagree on the Ahern race. We have an excellant opportunity here with the candidacy of Lorena Grizzle, daughter of the late Sen. Mary Grizzle (R) who represented this area for three decades (1963-1992) in Tallahassee. Sen. Grizzle was a Pinellas political icon, who was a moderate GOPer, the only one supported by the Women’s Political Caucus as I recall. I’m not surprised her daughter would now be a Democrat! Add all this to Crist heading the ticket and I’d call this race a toss-up.
Our failure to field competitive candidate in all state house of representative and senate races allows the Republicans to over load their campaign efforts in those races we run in. Look at the fund raising to date in HD – 65, the incumbent a Democrat Carl Zimmermann to date has raised $77,266 while the Republican Chris Sprowls has raised $160,630. Mr. Sprowls is a rising future star of the Republicans, his name has been tossed about as a possible future Speaker of the House and he has not even been elected. What confidence.