On today’s TFS Pod we begin our journey around the state looking at races in North Florida. Starting in Pensacola, Kartik Krishnaiyer and Ryan Ray discuss the trends that turned the area that was solidly Democratic at the legislative level prior to 1992 into a GOP bastion. We track the decline of the Democrats in the region as well as look at Congressional District 2 race as well as the House races in HD-8, HD-21 and HD-27. We also discuss the possibility of a Democratic revival in Escambia County, Mike Hill’s leadership potential and the historic collapse of the Democrats in Bay County.
I am not sold on Graham yet. What is her connection to the district? While parachuting a candidate can work in the UK, Canada or other places, I am not entirely sure it will work in north Florida. I know she worked in Leon County, but is that enough? As you mentioned, she will not perform as well in the west of the district, that is a given. But in the rural east part of the district, I think the lack of AG experience will be her downfall. Her win relies primarily on turnout in Tally, which I think will be harder. But with that being said, Bob Graham performed well in the north in 1978, so it is possible. Still, that was a different time. Also, Gwen Graham doesn’t have a southern accent. That might not sound like much, but I think it can play a role (enhancing the carpetbagger image).
On the other hand, Southerland does look EXACTLY like the guy you played the supposed killer in the Zodiac movie. Here is a link 🙂
Looking forward to your analysis of the Pensacola area representative race. Democrats need to learn from the meltdown (my opinion) of the Tea Party and their extreme tactics and ideologies. With a growing number of independents in Escambia County, isn’t it time to have more moderate candidates running for office? Democrats have shot themselves in the foot repeatedly claiming they are so outnumbered that they can’t win. Field a candidate that resonates with the majority of voters (Dems plus Independents (NPAs) outnumber Republicans) and see what happens.