Tag Archives: Florida Vote Projection
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 14: GOP sees slight bump, but this race is still close.
With the overnight numbers now in, Democrats actually saw a loss in projected vote. However, the Enthusiasm Gap didn’t have much of a swing. So what does that really mean? Does this help Democrats or Republicans? Let’s delve into the numbers. Turnout Summary: So far, 2,041,138 people have voted in this election, which is a […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 13: Big Momentum for Democrats with Vote by Mail ballots.
Over the last few days, there has been a momentous swing toward the Democrats in the latest projection model. Many might think that this is because the Democrats have performed well in early voting. But that really isn’t the case. Yes, Democrats are outperforming the Republicans by 2.28% on the early vote model, but Democrats […]
Florida vote projection model – Day 12: First two days of early voting might give Democrats false hope.
We are on Day 12 of our vote projection model for the 2018 general election in Florida. And I will admit, I am a bit hesitant to post the results. The reason why is that early voting numbers are currently missing in 35 counties. Of those 35 counties, only one (Osceola) voted against Donald Trump […]
Florida vote projection model- Day 11: Good VBM trends for Democrats continue
Tomorrow, early voting starts which will change the dynamic of everything. However, vote-by-mail numbers are showing that there might be 200,000+ more votes cast by this method than in 2014. Also, if the 2016 trend continues, where early vote numbers are higher than VBM numbers, Democrats could be in a position of advantage. However, that […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 10: more votes, small shifts
Day 10 into our vote projection model and we really don’t see that much of a change from Day 9. More votes have been cast and Democrats inch ever closer, but there was not a drastic shift in the electorate. Turnout Summary: As of this morning, 6.8% of voters in the State of Florida have […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 9: Palm Beach Dems Coming Home?
Day 9 into our projection model and Democrats continue to make gains. But will they be enough to make the difference? Possibly, but we don’t know yet. Turnout Summary: Overall turnout in the state, so far, is at 6.21%. The Republican turnout rate is at 7.76%, while Democratic turnout is at 6.36%. NPA/Other turnout is […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 8: Democrats are making gains.
Yesterday, we did not publish an article about the vote projection because I was away from the computer. However, we do have the new model up and Democrats are, slowly, gaining. Turnout Summary: As of right now, 5.43% of all voters have turned out to vote in Florida. As for party turnout, 6.8% of Republicans […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 6: Small gains for Democrats.
Yesterday, we decided to not publish any results from the Florida Vote Projection Model because only 7,000 new votes were submitted by mail, making only minimal change in the model. However, with a haul of over 100,000 votes being submitted yesterday, we are starting the see a shift, ever so slightly, toward the Democrats. However, […]
2018 Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 1
It is that time of year again. Everyone comes up with their predictions for the elections. Many in the prediction business, like Nate Silver, look at public opinion polling to determine voting behavior. Some, like the Larry Sabato, don’t use any methodology and just approach predictions in a crystal ball manner (hence the name of […]
The Florida Squeeze 