Category Vote projections

Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 13: Big Momentum for Democrats with Vote by Mail ballots.

Over the last few days, there has been a momentous swing toward the Democrats in the latest projection model. Many might think that this is because the Democrats have performed well in early voting. But that really isn’t the case. Yes, Democrats are outperforming the Republicans by 2.28% on the early vote model, but Democrats […]

Florida vote projection model – Day 12: First two days of early voting might give Democrats false hope.

We are on Day 12 of our vote projection model for the 2018 general election in Florida. And I will admit, I am a bit hesitant to post the results. The reason why is that early voting numbers are currently missing in 35 counties. Of those 35 counties, only one (Osceola) voted against Donald Trump […]

Could the emerging I-95 corridor become the Dems Florida firewall? Environmental issues hurting the GOP badly it appears.

The vote projection models provided daily here at the Florida Squeeze by my colleague Dave Trotter have been invaluable to understanding how the 2018 election is shaping up to be potentially different than the most recent contests in this state. Growth rates have slowed in Florida over the last eight years and the population though […]

Florida vote projection model- Day 11: Good VBM trends for Democrats continue

Tomorrow, early voting starts which will change the dynamic of everything. However, vote-by-mail numbers are showing that there might be 200,000+ more votes cast by this method than in 2014. Also, if the 2016 trend continues, where early vote numbers are higher than VBM numbers, Democrats could be in a position of advantage. However, that […]

Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 10: more votes, small shifts

Day 10 into our vote projection model and we really don’t see that much of a change from Day 9. More votes have been cast and Democrats inch ever closer, but there was not a drastic shift in the electorate. Turnout Summary: As of this morning, 6.8% of voters in the State of Florida have […]

Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 6: Small gains for Democrats.

Yesterday, we decided to not publish any results from the Florida Vote Projection Model because only 7,000 new votes were submitted by mail, making only minimal change in the model. However, with a haul of over 100,000 votes being submitted yesterday, we are starting the see a shift, ever so slightly, toward the Democrats. However, […]

Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 4: Democrats severely under-performing in VBM compared to 2016.

Overnight, Democrats were able to make some gains on the Republicans statewide. But the GOP still has the early advantage when in comes to the 2018 General Election. As of 8:00 AM this morning, over 327,000 people have voted in Florida, a 2.5% overall turnout rate. The Republican turnout rate 3.22%, while Democratic turnout rate […]