We’ve focused more on history and other aspects of Florida society on this site recently partly because Florida seems to be dead and gone politically. Yet Florida Democrats keep crowing about how good their chances are in 2024- especially US Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

Florida Democrats cancelling its Presidential Primary was colossally stupid. When you consider the new mail-in-ballot law, the number of down-ballot races in cities that took place Tuesday and the need to build energy and enthusiasm for the fall, cancelling the primary was about as silly a thing as this party could do. But this is the Florida Democratic Party, who have now more or less a 25 year run of making one bad decision after another.

I happened to be first in Marion County and then in the Villages (both Sumter and Lake portions) on Tuesday and I saw massive GOP turnout efforts since they technically had a primary. Having a primary probably pushed them towards victory in several close local races across the state.

Yet the rhetoric from Democrats is one of positivism and asking national donors to target Florida. To me this is deluded and could hurt Democrats in other states.

Additionally this seems to ignore the intense demographic shifts that have happened in Florida since 2017. While we all want Florida to be competitive, my view is that we as a nation NEED Democrats to win national elections and resources would be better spent on Senate races elsewhere and Presidential focuses in actual swingy states- of which Florida (and Ohio) no longer are.

Some points.

• In 2017, we were told the relocation of many Puerto Ricans to Florida after Hurricane Maria would push Florida into the blue column. I countered by talking about the number of midwestern emigrees moving to Florida who tended to be on the right. I particularly focused on Eastern Hillsborough, Pasco and Hernando Counties. In 2020, Joe Biden’s winning margin in Hillsborough and Pinellas County was more than completely offset by Trump’s winning Pasco margin – many of which came from newer residents.
• Following up on that point, GOP registration in Hillsborough County, one of Florida’s huge urban centers is creeping close to Democratic registration in the county.
• Democrats held a several hundred thousand voter registration advantage statewide in 2018. Now the GOP holds a massive advantage statewide. This means Democratic turnout needs to be somewhere between 75-80% to really have a chance to win ANY statewide race in a Presidential year absent winning maybe 58% or more of the NPA vote, which is growing rapidly.
• Democrats have lost serious ground in southeastern Florida. We’ve all heard about the shifts in Miami-Dade County, which went from +30 Hillary Clinton in 2016 to +6 Biden in 2020 and could cvery well back Trump in 2024. But what about neighboring Broward, the great Democratic bastion? In 2012, Broward County was the most Democratic large urban county in the Southeast US based on the Obama v Romney results. By 2020, it had slipped to seventh and since 2022 we’re seeing large GOP registration gains in Broward. I’d not be shocked if Trump gets 40% of the vote in Broward in November. In Palm Beach the situation is even more dire as newer residents in the northeastern portion of the county are skewing toward the GOP by a close to 2-to-1 margin.
• Well then we have Orange County, right? Sure, Orange will remain Democratic for the foreseeable future BUT, we’re seeing leakage in preference for Democrats among the growing Latino community in the Orlando area. In fact, it might put Osceola County into play for Trump in 2024. In Orange, we’re seeing many non-Cuban Hispanics, including Puerto Ricans beginning to move right. The way Florida is going, Democrats would need to turn Orlando into what Texas Democrats have turned Austin into. That isn’t close to happening. One positive though is Seminole County where the Democratic trend mirrors that of similar suburban counties in other parts of the country. Seminole has gone from being the most GOP county in the state in the mid 1990’s, to being a 50-50 one now.
• No question that Duval County is trending toward the Democrats but its potential Democratic margins are more than offset by the growth in neighboring Nassau and St Johns Counties, which have been almost wholly GOP-leaning growth since 2021.
• Democrats appear weaker than ever in the counties south of Hillsborough on the west coast – where 2.5 million Floridians currently live. The GOP could take something like a +20 % margin out of these areas in November. That’s HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS IN MARGINS of votes that the Democrats won’t be able to offset anywhere in the state – even in Broward where the Democrats used to talk about running up 275,000-325,000 vote margins in that county alone.

I could go on and on but the bottom line is the situation is bleaker than ever for Florida Democrats. That’s just the reality.