Tom Keen’s Special Election victory in HD-35 was huge for Florida Democrats. To get a better picture of the breakdown in votes go to Matt Isbell’s indispensable MCI Maps and his breakdown of the race.

I’ve been focused on the release of my latest book in hardcover on Friday (The American Conquest of Florida, Kindle and Paperback is coming in February), Iran’s attacks on Pakistan, Iowa and of course the Spirit/JetBlue court ruling (more on this later in the week) .

I had been following the race prior to this week and here are some very quick thoughts.

• As has been the case for a while now most NPA’s in the Orlando area lean Democratic. Still it appears Keen got 65-70% of the NPA vote per Matt Isbell which is a remarkable haul.
• My understanding from sources (I was in the district a week ago at this time on other business) is that the canvassing operation for Keen was as good if not better than anything we’ve seen from a Democratic House candidate not named Anna Eskamani in the last several cycles. It’s worth noting their is more progressive energy in the Orlando area than in any other part of the state so it’s easier to pull of there, but still a momentous achievement. Particularly in a Special Election.
• Insurance and access to reproductive rights were two of the issues driving voters in the district I am told. That indicated to me before yesterday that Keen might well win, but my concern once seeing turnout numbers is that the GOP ground operation was kicking into high gear. But clearly it wasn’t good enough despite a 20 point turnout advantage on Election Day itself.
• The GOP has now lost the last two high-profile races in the state after going on a unbeaten streak for several years. It’s not a coincidence both have occurred since the end of last legislative session as Ron DeSantis ran for President and insurance rates continue to spike. Honestly, the GOP’s best hope in this state is a Donald Trump nomination for President because he likely turns out GOP/NPA numbers that can’t be overcome and has no responsibility for Florida’s insurance crisis (in fact he’s hit DeSantis on it, as have some of his surrogates including Congressman Greg Steube). Florida GOPers who back DeSantis openly at this point are flirting with a potential problem in November for their party. Let’s see if they begin to back off now.