It’s become quite fashionable within the chattering class to write Ron DeSantis off in the last few weeks. The same chattering class who felt Hillary Clinton would be finishing her second term about now and thought Joe Biden was done after New Hampshire in 2020.

Personally, I don’t subscribe to this and would urge everyone redouble their efforts to defeat DeSantis at the earliest stage possible of a GOP nominating contest. With his back against the wall and a certain scent of desperation setting in he’s potentially more dangerous than ever.

DeSantis chances likely hinge on Iowa, a state I believe he can win.

Pat Robertson polled better than George H.W. Bush in 1988 (Bush’s problems with Iowa continued in the fall as it was Michael Dukakis second best state in nation behind Rhode Island- Dukakis won Iowa by double-digits something that is incomprehensible in hindsight), Pat Buchanan came within a hair of beating Bob Dole in 1996, Mike Huckabee won in a rout in 2008, Rick Santorum won in 2012 and Ted Cruz won in 2016. In fact given this history it would be surprising if DeSantis does not win Iowa.

Understanding the cultural preferences of Iowa Caucus goers and dependent on demagoguery that divides people, DeSantis’ campaign and aligned groups have leaned heavily into the anti-gay rhetoric. Check out this mail piece that ostensibly “thanks” President Trump for his support for marriage equality and trans rights, but is really a very Nixonian-styled sinister ploy to turn bigots against Trump. The origins of the group are sketchy but I think we can surmise it was designed to help DeSantis.

This comes on the heels of similar messaging coming directly from the DeSantis War Room.

While these ads are disgusting and are reminiscent of the sort of trash George Wallace ran in the 1970 Democratic Gubernatorial Runoff in Alabama against racial liberal Albert Brewer (who was propped up by largely improper efforts by the Nixon Administration) I have little doubt they will work in Iowa.

Turning Iowa GOP Caucus goers against Trump is something that is very possible when you consider the cultural preferences of those voters. Turning New Hampshire Primary voters against Trump on the hand is nearly impossible. So DeSantis, who is increasingly a one trick pony, pushing grievance culture issues so he can avoid a discussion on economics to placate his rich donors has no choice but to lean hard into bigoted demagoguery and try and ride that to the top in Iowa. Not winning Iowa means he’s likely done, but unlike the conventional wisdom currently, he’s not done for sure until he doesn’t win in Iowa.