As always Florida Democrats are spinning like mad after another embarrassing election cycle . The takeaway now is that the Latino problem of 2020 deepened in 2022. Yes, that is correct. But what’s even more apparent is as Florida becomes less white, and more diverse, it’s drift toward the GOP is accelerating at a breakneck pace?
Despite liberal elite views that somehow minorities should vote for Democrats because of identity, Florida Democrats deliberate de-emphasis of economic issues, and being inconsistent in messaging on social issues while showing a certain degree of patronizing on issues related to identity, all contribute to the GOP shift in Florida. This goes beyond heavily-Latino Miami-Dade and Osceola County, both of which have shifted heavily toward the GOP since 2018.
Democrats in the rest of the country proved you can win by talking about how President Biden’s agenda materially helps people, particularly working class people of ALL RACES. While Democrats across the country embraced President Biden’s Build Back Better agenda, improvements to infrastructure, student loan forgiveness and other items, Democrats in Florida de-emphasized these, seeing Biden’s approval rating in the state as a hindrance, and a reason to run away from not only the President, but the entire national Democratic agenda.
Similarly, when presented with a tap-in at the back post (sorry a bad soccer analogy) provided by Senator Rick Scott in the way of Social Security cuts and tax increases, Florida Democrats avoided the subject while Democrats in other states went to town on it, particularly in the last few weeks of the campaign.
Florida Democrats (often fronted by outside groups) have pushed social issues into prominence and this rhetoric is often not helpful in minority communities or among voters Democrats need to motivate to turn out to remains competitive in elections. Meanwhile, deemphasizing economic issues has a very direct impact on voter enthusiasm as the discrepancy between Florida’s turnout and that in other states demonstrates.
As precinct results are completed after the final canvass and ballot curing, we’ll be taking a deep dive into areas with large numbers of non-Hispanic, ethnic voters that are people of color. Haitian-Americans, Trini-Americans, etc. Based on numbers from specific districts in southern Florida, it appears we already saw massive swings towards the GOP.
Counter-example: Alan Grayson running (and losing) on economic issues.
Grayson consistently loses (badly) in low-turnout August primaries. Those have little correlation to the General Election, particularly in Florida. Democrats who scream the loudest about social issues and identity tend to win primaries in Florida. But the low turnout here when compared to other states shows economics move less motivated voters to vote.