Tuesday’s Red Wave – a Florida-specific phenomena that was long coming

Unsurprisingly to myself and our Dave Trotter who does the best forecast models for Florida elections, the GOP swept the state on Tuesday. Peeling a layer back, nothing at all was surprising. Here’s a checklist.

  • For YEARS I have been begging Democrats to engage in exurban areas and medium-sized counties. Constantly mentioning it has actually only resulted in those making the decisions in the party to dig in and be more obstinate.
  • In early 2018, I said at a time Democrats were convinced Puerto Rican voters were growing in such a manner to put the Democrats over-the-top in the state, that more migrants were entering the state from places like Michigan and Ohio and were headed to places like Eastern Hillsborough County or smaller towns in Citrus. For this advice, I was effectively blackballed for the 2018 cycle. I’m not kidding.
  • Palm Beach County has been teetering on brink of flipping for years as the county becomes more like the west coast of Florida, and Jewish-Americans become a smaller component of the population. It finally happened.
  • Osceola County is now effectively gone for Democrats. The warning signs were there in 2020, but not heeded.
  • Pinellas County for me is the biggest disappointment as I really thought they’d come home for hometown boy, Charlie Crist.
  • St Lucie County which I consider the most accurate bellwether in the state, was certainly spot on. It closely mirrored the statewide %’s in both the Governor and Senate races.
  • Val Demings is the single worst, well-funded statewide candidate I have seen a party field in Florida, and that’s a list that includes Hugh Rodham and Katherine Harris. Chew on that. Much more from me later, as the focus for me shifts back to Nicole now.


  1. Susan Smith · ·

    Maybe we should plan a summit for party reformers.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. 100%. Let’s talk later this week!


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