Live! Election Day in Florida

We’re calling it a night and working on some analysis for tomorrow! Speak to y’all soon. 

11:50 pm EST (Brook Hines): Rick Scott has rushed to claim victory while Nelson is not conceding due to voting issues in south Florida. 

11:15 pm EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): It appears the Democrats will be up to 45 or 46 seats in the State House. 

10:10 pm EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): The Democratic wave never happened tonight. But it must be pointed out once again Florida performed worse in a midterm election for the Democrats than similar-styled states politically. It’s pretty damning that once again the party is likely to be shut out of the Cabinet. 

9:40 pm EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): The Democrats are picking up seats in the House and Senate as well County Commissions throughout the state. While that’s good for the party it’s far fewer than anticipated just a few weeks ago. 

9:30 pm EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): Nikki Fried still has enough votes out to win. The other Dems have basically lost their margins for error. 

8:55 pm  EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): The Dems look poised to pick up CD-26 and CD-27

8:50 pm EST(Kartik Krishnaiyer): The precincts out in Palm Beach and Broward are lean Democratic. But they’re not overwhelmingly Dem like many that have already reported. 

8:30 pm EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): While statewide tallies are showing the GOP ahead I believe the outstanding votes in Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach will *likely* give the Democrats the Governorship, the Senate and Ag Commissioner. 

7:45 pm EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): The Republicans are in big trouble in a number of marginal Congressional and State Legislative seats as well based on the early returns. We’ll keep an eye all night. 

7:29 pm EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): It’s looking ominous for the GOP right now. No way back it appears in the Governor’s and US Senate races barring an unprecedented Election Day swing. Now for the Republicans minimizing damage in the legislature has to be the key. 

7:18 pm EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): EV & VBN numbers for Democrats in Orange and Broward are even better than 2016 in percentage terms and raw vote margins almost as high. 

7:07 pm EST (Dave Trotter): Pasco County early vote and vote by mail comes in. The Scott-DeSantis average is 55.04%, 1.48% better for the Democrats than the projection. However, might not be enough. Democrats should be looking for at least a 2.5% bump.

6:20 pm EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): What’s become obvious in the last hour is that the normal run on the polls from 4pm to 7pm EST is not only in full force but continuing in areas with heavy turnout earlier today

. 5:55 pm EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): I’m thinking Trump had a negative impact in Lee and Escambia where GOP turnout seems to have flatlined today in the counties he visited. However, GOP looks strong in other cored Republican counties.

5:30 pm EST (Dave Trotter): Heavily GOP Marion County having a good turnout day.

5:15 pm EST (Dave Trotter): 63.06% turnout thus far in Brevard County which in theory is very good news for the GOP.

4:50 pm EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): Here comes the Dem surge? Hearing of lines at heavily- Dem polling places in Broward and Palm Beach. Things seem razor tight.

4:15 pm EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): My GOP sources are growing increasingly confident as the day wears on that they’ve blocked the Democratic wave. One GOPer says to me “we’ll have a split-decision and that’s far better than what the media thought a few weeks ago.” 4:00 pm EST (Dave Trotter): As far as composition of the electorate, 2018 in Florida is similar to 2016, not 2014. In 2014, a higher percentage of voters voted on Election Day. The numbers today suggest it will be closer to 2016. Basically, an overwhelming amount of the votes have already been cast. 3:35 pm EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): I’m hearing a steady stream of voters in eastern Palm Beach County, priority GOP precincts continue into the mid afternoon. 3:30 pm EST  Audio update: 2:45 pm EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): Am hearing of NPA’s in Broward motivated to vote against “racist” Ron DeSantis but also some non-partisan voters in Palm Beach voting against Gillum due to “corruption.” NPA’s have become easier to read the last few years but it might not be as straight forward this time. 2:00 pm EST (Brook Hines):  I voted and had no line but my polling place was set up as if they expected a line later. 1:45 pm EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): My attempts to get hard data from Palm Beach County are thus far bearing little fruit. But my sources on the ground tell me turnout is steady in Republican-leaning precincts. If this trend continues it mirrors what happened in the county in both 2014 and 2016 when VBM/EV went overwhelmingly Democratic but Election Day became much closer to 50-50. 1:30 pm EST (Dave Trotter): Numbers not looking great for the Democrats but NPA’s could come through for them. 1:25 pm EST: (Kartik Krishnaiyer): Hearing very good things for the GOP in terms of turnout from each of the following CRITICAL areas: Eastern Hillsborough, Northern Pinellas, Eastern Palm Beach & SW Miami-Dade. Keep an eye out. Dems appeared poised for a big day here in Florida entering today. Maybe not after all. 1:00 pm EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): In terms of Election Day polling place visibility Democrats and aligned groups in Florida have done a much better job in metropolitan counties per my sources. This may or may not matter but shows a certain degree of enthusiasm. 12:15 pm EST: Comment from Pablo – “In regards to the 11:45 update…west dade as a huge number of NPAs (biggest group in some areas), so that would correlate well with the info that NPA’s are turning out in big numbers” 11:45 am EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): Two quick notes. I’m being told turnout in Eastern Hillsborough county is heavy.  This checks out with available numbers. That could impact CD-15. Also being told Miami-Dade turnout heavier further west. That’s difficult to double-check because of the backwardness of Miami-Dade’s online reporting. 11:15 am EST: Our TFS late morning audio update

11:00 am EST (Dave Trotter): NPA’s are turning out in large numbers in some core Democratic counties.  We’ll have an audio update shortly.

Remember the historic storm Hurricane Michael? Let’s see how it impacts turnout and voting in the counties impacted.. 

9:25 am EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): Hearing reports of Dem signs being moved by precinct workers in south Florida and Dem activists screaming racism! This is what happens when a combination of the GOP race-baiting and Dem reliance on identity creates a generation of seemingly victimized volunteers. Regardless of who wins and losses today we MUST do better in the future in terms of discourse and understanding each other.

9:05 am EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): The amazing thing about this election in Florida is the amount of energy – I haven’t seen it in a midterm since 2002 but that was an odd time and the day turned out to be a disaster for the Democrats. But this feels different than even that.

8:30 am EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): I’m hearing of lines to vote at polling places in Palm Beach County which are “longer than 2014, but shorter than 2016.” Not much to discern from that given that’s basically been the trend in early voting and VBM as well.

8:10 am EST (Dave Trotter): So far today the Democratic turnout (as a percentage of the overall vote) in Broward is only 48% as compared to 58% in early voting and 56% in vote by mail.

7:35 am EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): My colleague Dave Trotter reports to us we will have live numbers soon enough from many counties!

7:25 am EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): When I think back at past electoral disappointments working as a Democratic operative, specifically 2004 and 2014, I realize so much of my cockiness on Election Day was predicated on the run to early voting we saw the previous week. I sense some of the Dems cockiness today is based on the same factor, but also we are in a generally more Democratic environment in the state than 2004, if not 2014.  Meanwhile the GOP perhaps has used past early voting failures as a real incentive to turn out Election Day. I hear of several GOP campaigns in the state canvassing as late as possible yesterday.

7:10 am EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer): CNN and FOX News already appear to be in their respective corners for Election Day coverage. You’d think you were watching two separate events unfold based on the analysis on the two networks.

Miami Freedom Park rendering/ From Inter Miami CF

6:55 am EST  (Kartik Krishnaiyer):   @InterMiamiCF , an MLS pro soccer team will have an election night party to watch returns regarding Miami Freedom Park. David Beckham, I am told is expected to attend. Here is our primer on the vote today regarding the proposed park complex. 

6:45 am EST  (Kartik Krishnaiyer): Polls are about to open in the counties east of the Apalachicola River. Read Dave Trotter’s latest numbers and analysis.

What I am watching tonight (Kartik Krishnaiyer): Pasco and Pinellas Counties first and foremost. Since 2002 I have been able to basically predict where the state is going from there.

4 comments

  1. In regards to the 11:45 update…west dade as a huge number of NPAs (biggest group in some areas), so that would correlate well with the info that NPA’s are turning out in big numbers

    1. Wow, thanks for that.

  2. Arthur Madden · · Reply

    May start the scotch earlier than I had planned.

  3. 56k vote lead for Scott and 80k+ for Desantis with >97% in. Precincts left in panhandle and in lean dem precincts. I think Rs hold here – possibly recount. Early voting and election day nearly identical to 2016 in FL.

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