Florida will be competitive in November – Democrats remain in denial

Last week Steve Schale, who is one of the smartest Floridians out there predicted the state wouldn’t be a slam dunk for Democrats and reminded us that Rick Scott won twice with upside down favorable/unfavorable numbers. Many around the state in Democratic circles mocked Schale’s analysis – but why? Most of the push back was based on theories and the opinions of those operating in a bubble, and employed the same sort of internal groupthink that characterizes much of the continued optimism Democrats hold in Florida without any real empirical evidence to back up their hopes. Schale wrote two articles last week both of which were spot on from my perspective. I would recommend those on the left politically read both pieces with total objectivity and understand the case he’s making.

Today, new battleground Q-polls were released that showed clearly that three swing states including Florida will be competitive in a Trump v Clinton matchup.  Having gone through the 2004 election cycle in this state where the GOP was able to spike turnout for George W. Bush even though we kept hearing from Republican politicos that many were going to skip the race or vote for John Kerry, I realize the opinions of political insiders about Trump’s weakness and the number of elite GOPers jumping ship really means very little in the bigger scheme of things. Besides the political media, those who cover elected officials and political consultants for a living have been almost all wrong about the Trump phenomena for a year – leaving us legitimately questioning the value of some piece of their analysis this election cycle.

History is often our guide as to how these elections will turn out. However, this campaign and the two candidates are markedly different than what we’ve seen before in American politics from major political parties. So while in some cases history may be instructive in others this cycle we have to assume a clean slate and be more open and creative with how we analyze events.

Polls may not be the most accurate reflection of Trump’s support quite honestly in my opinion. A social stigma exists for many about openly backing Donald Trump. Like George Wallace or the infamous George Deukmejian victory over Tom Bradley in the 1982 California governor’s race, voters might be telling pollsters what they want to hear. So it should be of even greater concern that Trump is even remotely competitive.

Secretary Clinton is a flawed candidate and despite the protestations of those within the Democratic Party and left-leaning community about her viability. chances are quite good that he negatives are so high that as polarizing as Trump is the race will remain competitive for the duration of the campaign. While it is entirely possible the Democrats could have avoided a tight election with another nominee, they’re selected Clinton so it is really anyone’s guess how this thing will turn out.

So buckle up and get ready for a cycle that is largely undefined and unlike those of the past. While history can often be our guide, it might be less relevant this go-round than in the past – with the exception of the social stigma polling matter I discussed above or perhaps the 2004 Presidential race here in Florida.

The Democrats have to room to feel confident or cocky. They’ve oozed confidence before and then had everything blow up in their faces. Let’s hope 2016 isn’t a repeat performance of that.

24 comments

  1. Anne Gannon · · Reply

    HE dislikes Hillary. Don’t you think it is a little biased. And by the way how do you know what democrats are doing. I get a little tired of all the trashing of us this web site does.

  2. Bernie has a very good chance of defeating Hillary and Trump in the general election. The Revolution has only just begun.

  3. Naoya6161 · · Reply

    That poll you mentioned has been criticized for undersampling non-whites. And considering how many other polls are showing that Florida Hispanics hate Trump, I would have good reason to believe Hillary can win. Even Nate Silver thinks that Florida would be bad territory for Trump in the general election.
    Also, Hillary crushed Sanders in the primary. She’s not as unpopular as you think she is.

    1. All the Clintons have crushed is respect for the law, ethics, workers, and Black people. Congratulations Bernie on winning your nineteenth state. The party still can’t beat you despite rampant corruption not limited to elections fraud. Priceless.

      1. Naoya6161 · ·

        Still too behind in delegates to catch up.

      2. Bernie out polls Trump and Hillary in a three way general election if he ultimately runs as an Independent free from rampant Democratic Party elections fraud and corruption.

      3. Naoya6161 · ·

        And he’s already vowed to support the nominee.

      4. Yeah right. Don’t count on it. He may but most Bernie supporters will not vote for Hillary. Many of his growing supporters will write Bernie in if necessary. This country needs to overcome corruption in 2016 and it won’t with Trump and Hillary. The shamefully undemocratic, fraudulent, and corrupt 2016 elections process in the United States needs to immediately with cause be forensically investigated.

      5. Naoya6161 · ·

        Oh so it’s not democratic if your preferred candidate isn’t winning? Well then!

      6. Have you seen the numerous videos proving Hillary, Bill, and the Democratic Party have committed elections fraud in a large number of states or do you just approve of dishonest and illegal tactics?

      7. Naoya6161 · ·

        I’ll believe when I hear it from an objective source. And considering you’re supporting a man who’s openly suggested subverting the democratic process…it looks like you’re talking about yourself.

      8. Do objective research. You sound ignorant.

      9. Naoya6161 · ·

        You haven’t actually refuted any of my points – all you’re doing is resulting to insulting me personally. If you’re so confident I’m wrong on both points, show me evidence from unbiased sources.

      10. I am way too busy to post the widely available and indisputable video evidence from numerous states you ignore with prejudice. Objectively research it yourself instead of continuing to demonstrate and defend your continuing ignorance. Research it. The truth will set you free. Hillary won’t.

      11. Naoya6161 · ·

        It seems you are incapable of refuting my points instead of insulting me personally. And considering you just went on a rant that screams “I hate Hillary!”, I don’t think you know what objective means.

      12. The evidence is available online. Do your own research instead of sounding like a fool. No one denies the video evidence from various states and sources. Look up video evidence Bill being charged in Mass and elections fraud in New York ignoramus. That’s just for starters. Surprised her State IT director’s emails have been wiped or that the Clinton Foundation takes donations from terrorist regimes, private prison reps, and pharmaceutical lobbyists? You are refuted. I have work to do. Get your head out of your ass.

      13. Naoya6161 · ·

        I’m sorry – after all the vitriol you’ve thrown my way, do you really think I would consider you as an objective source? I’m not going to consider a person who blindly hates Hillary, Republican or Bernie Bro, as an objective source of her character. In any case, you already lied about being busy.

      14. Everything I have said is verifiably true. Writing my doctoral dissertation is more important to me than teaching a stubborn and ignorant fool to do objective elementary research.

      15. Naoya6161 · ·

        I’ve heard enough – it’s obvious to me that you’re just another Bernie Bro. It’s people like you who make me happy I voted for Clinton – I wouldn’t want to be part of a visibly toxic movement.
        In any case, I have better things to do with my time. Try to have a nice day! 🙂

      16. Thank you for proving my point again. Have a nice day.

      17. More false claims in writing fool? I have no connection to the Bernie Bros.

  4. Hillary is a liar and criminal and anyone with any sense knows it. Her body language, actions, and flip flopping policy stances have not elicited likeability or trust. She can’t win even with cheating.

  5. Ruth Ann Eaddy · · Reply

    I love Bernie Sanders and the movement he stands for, but we Democrats will have to face the fact that we must vote for Hillary if Bernie does not win. It is hard to even imagine what our country will be like if Donald Trump wins. Stop the Hillary bashing..it is not good for the country.

    1. Wrong. Write Bernie in if necessary. Do not vote for untrustworthy candidates from our now corrupt Democratic Party.

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