We’ve talked extensively in the past on this site about St Pete Polls but through the 2014 election cycle, learned that their turnout models were fairly accurate and generally got the right race winners and margins. St Pete Polls had a mixed bag in 2012, but then nailed the CD-13 Special Election in 2014, both high-profile statewide Democratic Primaries in 2014, and contrary to our editorializing did very well on General Election Day 2014.
The bottom line number is:
Someone else 17%
Among the major Democratic candidates, Grayson enjoys a far larger lead among males than females and also has built a large lead among African-Americans. Both Grayson and Murphy enjoy overwhelming leads in their home media markets and Murphy is running even with Grayson in the critical Miami-Fort Lauderdale media market. Pam Keith polls poorly in the larger metro areas with the exception of the Tampa-St Pete market, Florida’s largest media market where she is very competitive in this survey.
Grayson enjoys the highest name ID of the candidates but is still unknown to almost half the electorate per this poll. With a year plus left of campaigning for the Democratic nomination, the poll shows Grayson holds a clear advantage but it’s anyone’s game still. Additionally, multiple negative stories have ben published in the last ten days about Grayson, and who knows as those become more widely circulated what will transpire in this race.
One letdown of the poll was the failure to test Miami Beach Mayor Phillip Levine who is strongly considering throwing his hat in this race. Still, excellent work from St Pete Polls with this survey.
Disclaimer: Kartik Krishnaiyer is an adviser to Pam Keith’s Campaign