In the past few days my colleagues Katy Burnett and Justin Snyder have both thrown out theories for what Charlie Crist must do to win this gubernatorial election. Katy believes that Crist must work hard in smaller counties, especially those where Nan Rich perceived by many as a left-wing Broward County Democrat oddly performed well in last week’s primary. Justin believes that Crist must work urban counties and raise turnout in core Democratic areas. All indications seem to point to Crist following the Snyder playbook closer than the Burnett one. But lost in this discussion are the medium sized counties where Republicans have built up tremendous advantages in recent statewide campaigns.
Florida’s Democrats have lost 13 of the past 14 elections for statewide (non-federal) office. This is a record which is comparable to that of rock solid Republican states like Utah and Idaho and worse over the same period as traditional GOP strongholds like Wyoming, Montana, Kansas and Arizona. It is logical and perhaps admirably pragmatic that elements within a desperate party that has failed to properly train or promote a “farm team,” would turn to a proven statewide vote getter such as Charlie Crist to try and regain a foothold at the highest level. But even if Governor Crist wins, it does little to solve the problems the party has as a viable statewide force. But if Crist runs a truly statewide campaign, something the Democrats have not done in sometime, the building blocks for a long-term revival might exist.
Many Tallahassee-based operatives have through the last decade overstated the importance of north Florida counties in the possible revival of the party. While it is true that the leakage of legislative seats in the Big Bend and Panhandle areas has been dramatic, little can be done realistically to change the fortunes in that region. Katy’s article about Crist spending time in these regions might help him in 2014 (or might do nothing for him this election) but long-term the region is probably gone, despite a lingering Democratic voter registration advantage. More importantly, that region does not have enough voters to really turn the tables in statewide elections or in tipping the legislative balance of power. Even if the Democrats carried every county between the Suwannee and Apalachicola Rivers, every election the GOP has won for statewide office since 2000, they still would have won.
We have also heard from the party’s southeast Florida base that maximizing turnout in Miami-Dade Broward and Palm Beach Counties would make all the difference statewide. While there is some truth to the theory that more Democratic votes can be squeezed out of these metropolitan counties, they are already performing very well for Democrats and basing any statewide strategy exclusively around the three counties is difficult, though Obama pulled it off twice and Crist appears poised to be focused similarly in 2014. In both the Obama and Crist cases though, a massive emphasis was put on marrying heavy turnout in Central Florida, with narrow victories in the Tampa media market along with the maximized metropolitan turnout in southeastern Florida.
But let’s focus on a third possibility – The reality is statewide elections have consistently been decided in the favor of the GOP by the continuing underperformance of Democratic candidates in non-metropolitan medium-sized counties that represent a large portion of the statewide electorate.
The most important counties in the state outside the large urban swaths, it can be argued, are Brevard, Pasco, St Lucie, Sarasota, Volusia, Hernando and Polk. With the exception of traditionally Republican Sarasota, these are counties where the Democratic success at the top of the ticket has been mixed, but counties where the local party structure has remained solid and areas where developing a real farm team of local candidates and activists should be intensified with the backing of financial muscle.
Party building requires, like any building, a solid foundation. In politics foundations are built of people – be they registered voters, party activists, eager candidates or motivated donors. Building the foundation necessary to begin and sustain a long-term resurgence of the Democratic Party requires creating a new backbone at the local level of committed activists, potential candidates, and major fund-raisers. A vibrant Crist campaign can begin to create the excitement to build such an infrastructure.
It is these counties, with proper financing, that can turn the state around. With support and guidance from local activists these are the places that can provide the foundation and resurgence of the Democratic Party in Florida at all levels. Local elected officials have the most contact with the average voter and are therefore the primary point of contact between Party, its statewide candidates and the voter. Working to rebuild the infrastructure of the party and an emphasis on localized election may need to begin with a vibrant Crist effort.
While the easiest path to victory for Crist is represented by raising turnout in the three southeast Florida counties and Orange while winning Pinellas/Hillsborough by a comfortable margin. Crist’s campaign cannot be blamed for this thinking, but the opportunity is there in the very next tier of counties to begin building the blocks for long-term success.
Most of the counties you mention are trending republican even heavier than the rural ones you wrote off. Illogical to hit these places.
These counties are where we must cut margins
We seem to going round and round with this. Should CC go here or there. Can the Democrats pick up a few more votes from this county or that county? We just have to do what we can to get through thus election cycle and whatever the outcome (remember an earlier post I said I was “cautiously optimistic”) we must begin the task of rebuilding the party for the long term. But both elections and party building must be done in a state with a near total lockdown of the media. I don’t think the party understands this, even on the national level. I can drive from my home in SF to my parents home in Lake County and not miss a minute of El Rusbo bashing us as traitors, commies, etc. There is really no place in mass media for our side to respond and what little we do or did have (Air America?) democrats took little advantage of. As for MSNBC not every cable system carries it as a part of a basic package. So we have a heavy lift ahead of us, not impossible, but heavy none the less. I look forward to hashing these issues out with you in the weeks ahead.
We did get a campaign team here in Gainesville this weekend, so there is that.
Every bit helps!
Come on Florida, wake up and stop being fooled. Why vote between 2 known liars? Florida, we are fortunate enough not to
be stuck picking one liar or the other this time. We actually have an
alternative. Take advantage of the opportunity. Adrian Wyllie deserves
my vote. He is a honest average Floridian just as you and I , that is
willing to stand up and do something for the interest of all of us here
in Florida. The other candidates both Republican and Democrat are owned
and controlled by special interest, like puppets and will lie to your
face to gain your vote, then continue the same old agenda that we
complain about year after year. Time to get off this merry-go-round,
election after election, thinking it will be any different. Take a
stand, vote for the candidate that loves this state and is willing to
take time out of his life, effort and money to SERVE the people of
Florida and stop voting for these ‘paid for’ career politicians that are
only out for money and fame and have zero interest in us Floridians.
Even if it’s just for honesty alone, vote for Adrian Wyllie instead of
the other two (Scott/Crist) which are proven liars. The choice is yours
and yours alone, if you want the same old corruption and slap in the
face, go ahead and vote for one of the two puppets (Scott/Crist) OR do
what is right for our (yours and your children’s) future and vote for
Adrian Wyllie. Support him by donating to his campaign, spreading the
word and contribute to the super brochure program which I think is very
powerful. Visit his website today
Vote Adrien Wyllie say hello to two term Gov. Rick Scott. Stop this nonsense. Independent/Third Party/Third Way always seems to equal GOP policies. I’m not throwing my vote away on fantasy.
Pasco and Hernando are critically important. We must do better in both places.
Polk has a great candidate against Dennis Ross. Charlie needs to come here to support Alan Cohn and the Dems will in turn get the vote out for him. RA
Indian River Counry has historically been neglected by the Florida Democrat Party. The election can be won if there was some support in increasing number of registered Democrats and the Florida Democrat Party can be a catalyst in getting out the vote.