I have been a longstanding opponent of the US embargo against Cuba. It has been in place since the early 1960s and while it has perhaps at times slowed Cuba’s economy it has done little if anything to force regime change or to modify the behavior of the Castro regime on the global stage.

For Florida the embargo makes no sense and has never made much sense economically. It’s lifting is long overdue and Governor Crist courageous and politically risky move deserves plaudits. From a policy standpoint it makes sense even if it is dicey from an electoral standpoint. Cuba would be a natural market for American and in particular Floridian goods, while providing an opportunity for families to visit one another. The commercial relationships that can be developed with a neighboring island is unlimited.

From a historical standpoint like the Cuban embargo, most economic embargoes fail. The British/League of Nations led embargo on Italy following the invasion of Ethiopia did virtually nothing to stop Mussolini’s aggression, sanctions against Rhodesia and South Africa for racist policies probably played little role in the eventual downfall of those white minority governments and thirty-three years of US led sanctions against Iran have done less to cripple the Iranian economy nor the dangerous behavior of Tehran’s fundamentalist religious regime than its proponents claim. Only when western European countries joined the Iranian sanctions regime in recent years did it have an impact to force Iran to the bargaining table, and still its impact can be questioned. The recently imposed sanctions by the USA and EU against Russia have done nothing to this point to curb Vladimir Putin’s aggressive behavior with regards to his neighbors. 

From a policy standpoint the Cuban embargo has not made sense for years. It has been a proven failure unable to impact any sort of desirable change. But unfortunately, the timing of lifting the embargo at least from an optical perspective could not be worse than right now.

Cuba is once again firmly in the orbit of Russia, much like it was in the Cold War. Russian influence is less direct these days yet is clear to those who follow international politics. Vladimir Putin who leads a nationalist pariah state that threatens its neighbors and stifles human rights domestically, has built a new alliance of nations whose sole ideology is opposition to the United States.

This alliance has indulged Putin as he has violated international law and the sovereignty of his neighbors since 2008, when President Bush was unable to act decisively to stop Putin’s interference in Georgia. Russia now officially has recognized three breakaway republics and is tacitly supporting two others in Georgia and Ukraine. Putin has used the alliances he has created globally to buy him cover in these exploits and that also includes in blocking the formal international recognition of Kosovo, something long overdue.

The accommodationist posture of the Obama Administration towards Putin’s Russia and the emerging new Axis that Putin is creating in alliance with Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Iran, Syria and North Korea poses a real long-term strategic problem for the United States and the West. Russia is a petrocracy much like its allies Venezuela and Iran, meaning they are using the ability to manipulate energy supplies to great advantage politically.

Cuba is very much part of this emerging Russo-centric alliance. The lawless behavior of Putin and his unwillingness to take a definitive step back  from his current posture means that the timing of engaging Cuba could not be worse from an international perception perspective. The same can be said for dealing with Iran diplomatically, something I have long supported but now fear will aid and abet Putin.

So while the Cuban embargo should have been lifted years ago and Charlie Crist has taken a courageous position on the matter, the timing from a policy and perception standpoint could not be worse. Now is not the time to make moves that encourage further Russian aggression or imply a lack of American resolve.