Authors Note: In this part of our multi-part series “The Liberal Case For US/NATO Intervention In Ukraine,” I’ll examine why the international community should regard Russia’s incursion into Ukraine as an act of war, what options the international community and the United States have at their disposal to punish Vladimir Putin and Russia for said illegal actions, and lastly what options might Putin and the Russians be pondering as a next move, if any? 

Intro

Part I 

If you’re an international relations junkie, news fiend, or simply familiar with the tactics of  Russian President Vladimir Putin ,  I already know what you’re thinking. Vladimir Putin is the world’s most infamous and powerful troll. He’ll poke and prod at the West for kicks and then suddenly put on his big boy pants and join the rest of us at the adults table as we discuss ways to move forward. We’ve seen him invade Former Soviet Republic (FSR) Georgia and have Russian submarines patrolling the Gulf undetected.  On the contrary we’ve also seen him come to the table  during the Syrian chemical weapons extractions plans as well. The western media has been trying to say that Putin’s actions are blowing up in his face- they have put in him in corner. But, any international relations novice would tell you, that Putin’s decisions are a crystal clear example of realpolitik. He has created a situation where the only scenario where the West can stop his aggression in Crimea and elsewhere is all out war. Later, I discuss what options may my be on the table to address this situation, but given the international community’s lack of cohesive action on issues like this, some sort of collective punishment seems unlikely- thus Putin is winning this round of confrontation with the West.

Why Is This An Act Of War?

This most recent action, a stealthy incursion and essentially covert annexation of Crimea this past weekend  was preceded by a unanimous Duma authorization for said invasion, is not for show. It’s an act of war that cannot go unpunished.  First, Putin’s actions violates  Article 2(4) of the UN Charter which prohibits states from engaging in threats or uses of force against other states. A day after Putin was granted authority to send troops into Ukraine, a New York Times Article, reported that Russian Troops wearing uniforms stripped of any sort of identifying marks in vehicles with Russian license plates invaded on Saturday. They shutdown the airport, communication centers, and surrounded government buildings signaling a coordinated, planned and even covert effort to annex the entire Crimean region, which breaks down to about 60% ethnic Russian and 40% Muslim Tatar.While the concrete numbers are sketchy the latest report estimates say that there are currently 15,o00 troops in Crimea, there are now steady reports that Russian military officials have ordered Ukrainian soldiers in Crimea to stand down, and hand over their weapons by  3/4/2014 or face an attack.

Putin and Russia’s justification through the media has consistently been that they are in Crimea to protect Russian Citizens. And  The problem with that assessment is that there haven’t been any news reports from any outlet reporting any sort of threat against any ethnic Russians in Crimea or in Eastern Ukraine which part one this series tells us, is more pro-Russian. Additionally, if there is no threat to ethnic Russians as US Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power argued before the UN Security council yesterday afternoon, Ukraine in fact has the right to defend itself against Russian aggression as supported by Article 51 in UN Charter as well. Putin has shown this type of aggression towards FSRs in the recent past. In 2008, Putin claimed it needed to defend ethnic Russians living in the South Ossetia region of the country where South Ossetian paramilitaries were bombarding Georgian villages.  Georgia in response sent troops to the region and Putin responded to that by invading Georgia.  Putin is clearly interested in restoring Russia not necessarily to its Communist ways, but back to a unified, feared, global superpower.

Why Is This Of Interest To The United States and Its European Allies? 

But why does any of this matter? Who cares if Russia annexes a small peninsula that is majority ethnic Russian and seemingly welcoming to the aforementioned invaders? To be honest, the loss of Crimea isn’t whats on the minds of western powers, its what could possibly follow it given the reactions already felt in global markets as the American indices take a hit as well as the Rubble against he  Euro. Prices of corn, wheat, grain, and crude oil all went finished higher today as a result of the fears associated with the unknown consequences of the invasion.  The longer we sit by and do simply throw rhetorical bombs rather than formulating and executing a response, the more tumultuous the market volatility and more likely Putin responds with even further aggression- perhaps even into mainland Ukraine or surrounding FSRs that have unpopular Russian puppet leadership like the former Ukrainian leader Viktor Yaukovych such Belarus.

This latest conflict between Ukraine and Russia isn’t about political freedoms, but economic freedom to pursue other growth opportunities outside the Russian sphere of influence. Europe has relied on Russia’s ample natural gas supplies for  about a quarter of its needs, and one third of that supply flows right through Ukraine’s pipeline system. With Russian control of the Crimean peninsula this adds another layer of peril.  A Forbes Article explored this issue in detail and argues the fact that since Russia controls anywhere from one third to one half of Ukraine’s Natural Gas, they may use that leverage to pressure Ukraine or worse, use it to disrupt the markets purposely and send the world markets in to chaos:

Since 2006, the two nations have had legitimate battles over how to value that vital product. During the early years of that dispute, Russia had wanted to quadruple prices to Ukraine. Recently, though, those natural gas prices are tied to global oil prices and have sold at much greater rates, which has cut Ukraine’s consumption of Russian natural gas.

Simply put, Russia has a strangle hold over Ukraine’s gas markets and the flow natural gas into the EuroZone. In other words, this conflict once again is all about natural resources- mainly natural gas and crude oil. If you take away all of the Russian supplied gas to Ukraine, the economically troubled FSR only has four months  worth of gas stocks since it meets about half of its demand with  Rooskie gas.

US & Western Allies Options For Response 

There are many different ways that America and its allies can respond to the Putin’s latest aggression ranging from sanctions, to a coordinated military strike. While we here are The Florida Squeeze are advocating a united  and forceful response from the international community, we are NOT ADVOCATING all out war between the west and Russia. We are however, advocating a non-violent froceful response. Here are just a handful options that are surely being contemplated by the Obama White House:

Sanctions, Asset Freeze and Ukrainian Support Package: As I was doing a final review and edit of this piece this morning,  the New York Times reported that Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev with an of a  $1 billion in secured American loan guarantees and pledges of technical assistance. According to the report, the purpose of the loan is to show support for Ukraine’s desire to engage with the West and help to offset the previously discussed reduction of energy subsidies from Russia, which has challenged the new Kiev governments legitimacy with the occupation of the Crimean Peninsula.  The report also mentions that the US will also be sending technical experts to assist Ukraine’s national bank and financial ministry to help fight corruption and more importantly, to train election monitors to establish legitimacy in the upcoming presidential elections in May. in addition to the US’s involvment here the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is also sending a team of ten monitors to the area as well.   A State Department official is quoted in the piece, stating that a plan complete with sanctions against the Russian Federation is expected to be announced within the next few days. These sanctions will undoubtedly be focused on freezing the assets of Russia’ most power oligarchs.  Russians are major holders of Ukrainian debt, so the problem with these types of sanctions and emergency funding, is that the money will undoubtedly end up in the hands of Russian institutions and coffers. So this option, while the least violent, and primal first step in escalation, is not going to have any effect on Putin’s planning.

Suspending Russia’s G8 and/or G20 Membership: As Russian troops entered Crimea on Saturday, the calls for a unified action from American and western powers were steadily increasing. On the Sunday morning talk shows this week, American law makers from both sides of the aisle were pushing for decisive action against Putin. The most frequently shared option between members of Congress, was the temporary suspension of Russia’s membership in the G8 and G20.  US Senators Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) both called for such measures on CNNs “State Of The Union” on Sunday Morning. this option is the most likely of all that I will discuss. The seven other members of the G8 released a joint press release earlier in the week condemning Russia’s incursion in the the Crimea, in which that announced that will, for the time being, suspend their participation in activities in preparation for the next scheduled G8 summit, which ironically, is going to be held in Sochi, Russia in June.  This option provoke a reaction Putin because, as previously mentioned here, Putin’s dream is a united Russia that is viewed as a major player on the big stage but the outside world. Revoking or suspending Russia’s membership in these power groups, will certainly further isolate Russia from the international community. In addition to a stage boycott of the Sochi meeting of the Group, President Obama should come out publicly acknowledging that he will not be attending any sort of summit while the Russian occupation is still ongoing. Putin, as you may now, did not come to the G8 Summit here, when Obama hosted, so it would be a fair reciprocation to attend said meeting Russia as well. Other trade organizations like the OECD could also suspend Russia’s membership as well, and even the UN Security Council.

Speeding Up EU and NATO Membership of other Former Soviet Republics: Before ousted Russian Puppet Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukoych fled, Ukraine was in the midst making a major decision: to complete its journey into the European Union and possibly NATO. When Yanukoych reneged on joining the EU, protests sprung up all over the country.  Putin’s biggest fear is a fully integrated Ukraine into the West.  To add pressure to Putin, or simply to make his blood boil and really troll, I wouldn’t be surprised if Secretary Kerry or President Obama come out publicly and announce that they fully support speeding up this process not just for Ukraine but FSRs that are not currently in NATO or the EU.

Reengaging in Missile Shield Talks with Czechs and Pols: If there’s one option that will truly lead to Putin losing his mind, its the revitalizing of an American backed missile shield in Eastern Europe in some Russia’s neighboring countries. As you may remember, the missile shield has long been debated and planned, and was on course to happen until the President Obama and then Russian President Medevedev sat down to negotiate the START2 treaty, that of course, was focused on the draw down of nuclear weapons between the US and Russia. As part of those negotiations, then Russian Prime Minister Putin, negotiated the missile shield out of the  treaty. If we could show that were are willing to restart plans on the shield, Putin make back off. This missile shield is something that he has boasted his opposition to for quite some time.

Deploying NATO Troops to Western Ukraine and Kaliningrad:  This option is last on the list for reason. It will surely lead to escalation and certainly must be seen as a complete last resort.  If Ukraine approve, NATO should send a force of troops in the western part of the country to show Putin that we can play that game too- the game being “we are protecting the interests of the ethnic Ukrainians that are not pro Russia, and the rest of the Europeans and world citizens that may be caught in the crossfire.  In addition to sending troops to western Ukraine, sending a NATO contingency that would surround the Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea, Kaliningrad would also send a serious message to Putin. Kaliningrad is surrounded by NATO members Poland to the south and Lithuania to the north and east.  The position of this troops is certainly the most provocative of actions and would certainly guarantee a response from the Russians however, it would also so Putin a united American-European Front, something would certainly make Putin’s blood boil, or in the very least something that would he would have to acknowledge.

Putin’s Next Move:

So now that we’ve covered the history of the conflict, why its important to us, and what we can do to prevent it from escalating, its time we discuss what Putin’s next move could possibly. Its a tall order, because no one really knows whats on his mind, but we surely can speculate given his history in past military incursions. I am not optimistic about the endgame here. This incursion seems to be long planned and thought out. Putin knows that Crimea is now his, and that  the chances of it returning to Ukraine of slim to none, so it makes me think that this is not the last incursion for Putin.

What caused this invasion was the ousting of Yanukovych as Ukrainian President, as he was a Russian puppet that the Ukrainian people were not supportive of. The Ukraine’s north is another FSR ruled by a Russian puppet as President Alexander Lukashenko. IF Putin decides to invade mainland Ukraine, which is the million dollar question, neighboring FSRs will surely begin to get nervous. It would not surprise me if in the next coming days and weeks as this crisis undoubtedly worsens, that we’ll Anti-Russian demonstrations in neighboring FSRs that could possibly lead to further ousting of Russian puppet leaders in the region thereby giving Putin a reason to invade those nations has he did Ukraine.

This crisis is a dangerous and worsening everyday. It has the potential to destabilize the entire region, and throw the international markets into turmoil. During the 2012 US Election Campaign, a foreign policy debate was held in Boca Raton, where Mitt Romney made the statement that Russia was a biggest foe in the entire world. He was ridiculed for that statement for weeks. A las, here we are, staring Putin in the face, just like its the Cold War all over again. As much as it pains me to say, Mitt Romney was right, and we must respond.

Thanks For Reading,
JS
@JustinSnyderFL