In theory, Governor Scott has a shot at winning reelection. Public polling indicates the race is a dead heat, but the public polls are less relevant than the early and vote by mail totals as well as the actual developments on the ground in advance of Election Day. Three days ago, Steve Schale wrote a memo that was spot on yet was mocked by Republicans and questioned by many in the press.
The reality is this – as Democrats have closed the VBM Republican advantage with an early vote surge in larger urban counties over the past five days, Governor Scott’s margin for error in this race has disappeared. Scott needs virtually everything to go perfectly for him over the next nine days in order to stay in office beyond early January. The items Governor Scott depends on include some very suspect things:
- Lower than anticipated African-American turnout.
- An uptick in Republican early votes in Hillsborough and Orange Counties.
- The almost statistically impossible continuation of a Republican vote advantage in Miami-Dade.
- Scott and RPOF’s negative ads have to pay off in a way they have not yet to this point in time. While this seems improbable it is at least in theory quite possible as many voters are just beginning to pay attention closely to this race.
- Perhaps Scott needs bad weather in the three southeast Florida counties on Election Day that prevents a large voter turnout?
The combination of all or even most of these things seems improbable. When the postmortem is written about Rick Scott’s failure to win reelection it will be down to the contempt the Governor showed for this state, its history, its institutions and its ordinary people. It will be down to the fact that as an incumbent he felt the need to tear down his opponent due to petty personal spite rather than to tout his own record. It will be remembered as well that Governor Scott was quick to jettison political supporters when they became a liability and allowed his office to be run with a ruthlessness and pettiness that failed to engender loyalty even among many leading Republicans. It will be remembered that his campaign resorted to slanderous and borderline libelous commentary about Governor Crist, a man who has served the public good in this state for over twenty years and has sacrificed much of his adult life to better the lives of ordinary Florida citizens (irrespective of what you think of Crist’s flip-flops on issues unlike many leading politicians in this state in both parties he has never enriched himself financially off the public dole). In time, Governor Scott could be remembered as the accidental and inept Governor whose reign of terror ushered out the era of Republican dominance in Florida and helped to create a competitive two-party system in this state for the first time since the mid 1990’s.
The Republicans have allowed themselves to become completely noncompetitive at the top of the ticket in the large urban counties in this state by advocating a strict corporate agenda and radicalized view of American society when it comes to social issues. While the GOP continues to enjoy a large advantage in the legislature the party’s failure to reign in special interests and arrogance combined with a sense of entitlement in governing could, if demographic trends continue make it virtually impossible for the party to win statewide elections when the Democrats are motivated and well-funded.
This election should be a wake-up call for Florida’s Republicans. Let’s see if they get the message.
The Florida Squeeze 
There is a very large chance that Rep’s are going to continue to paint themselves into an ever shrinking corner, resulting in a multi-decade reign for democrats – similar to the 70-year reign of Rep’s after the civil war. It’s a severe loss for democracy
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They are attempting infiltrate the Democrat party with Crist and unfortunately many are falling for it. The Democrat party loses with Crist or Scott. Vote for Adrian Wyllie.
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It is highly improbable that Rick Scott is going to get any increase in minority votes. He has failed this community consistently and it is going to have a negative impact on down the ballot races.
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Miami-Dade Cubans have dumped Chain Gang Charlie. Black supporters waved at by Chain Gang Charlie from a bus; gutless Chain Gang Charlie wouldn’t even get off his bus to mix with Blacks. Chain Gang Charlie eviscerated and disrespected Kendrick Meek four years ago and even tried to get Mr. Monica Lewinsky Clinton to talk Meek out of the senate race. Prediction:
1. Not enough Blacks will vote for Chain Gang Charlie who spend most of his career locking up Black males in prison.
2, Cuban Americans will vote 2-1 against Charlie all over the state.
3. Not enough Puerto Ricans will vote for Charlie to balance out the Cuban wipeout.
4, Rick Scott will run more “record” ads in final days than attack ads.
5. GOP early and absentees will give Scott a good cushion when the 4th rolls around.
6. Scott will carry votes cast on the 4th with huge majorities in many counties while Charlie will get decent numbers only in Broward and Miami/
Dade.
7. If Obama with his “vaunted” ground game and 99% Black vote could barely win by less than 1 percent in 23012, what makes anyone think that Chain Gang Charlie is going to win this time?
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Mr. Contreras…I really don’t believe that anything that you’ve stated will come to pass. I was, and am, a NAN RICH supporter, however, FLORIDA needs Charlie Crist…not anyone that remotely resembles Rick Scott and/or his policies towards non-business residents of the Sunshine State.
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We made the mistake of accepting Crist over Nan and we will suffer the consequences for it. Crist is a infiltrator and will stab us in the back. We would be much better off with Adrian Wyllie.
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Feeling the heat, huh?
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Translation: Florida Republicans are to the point in their panic attack when they don’t care who sees them sweat.
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Well said!
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Rick Scott may yet win this election, but the victory might ultimately prove to be a pyric one. Scott and the GOP have been poisoning this state for the last three years dividing the state into two camps. What is the GOP going to do here in Fl and the rest of the country with the 50% that doesn’t agree with them? If they win there is nothing I can do but live with the results, but they and their allies will not get one drop of respect from me. They are vandals and thugs and I have nothing but contempt for them. At some point I expect the republicans to overstep their bounds and will be turned away by people of goodwill, but how much damage will be done by then? Oh well, the USA was a good idea, at least for a while.
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Arbee…VOTE…encourage your friends and neighbors to vote….REFUSE to accept a governor who does not respect the residents of the State of Florida. YOU can change this state…do it!!
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Governor Scott will be reelected.
Krishnaiyer and his family seek a return to power in Coral Springs by tearing down the current commission.
#nonobjectveblogger
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Not giving up! But you have to wonder what kind of country and state we have when a malevolent entity like the GOP still has a chance of winning an election.
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Rick Scott, whom Stephen Colbert calls Voldemort, uses robocalls and pre-written letters to try to boost his low approval ratings.
http://blogs.browardpalmbeach.com/pulp/2011/06/stephen_colbert_rick_scott.php
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Speaking of mixing, Raoul Contreras must of been so enraged when Governor Crist hugged President Obama. “These kinds of images can be deadly,” said Republican strategist Mark McKinnon. How dare Governor Charlie Crist hug the President!! This is what we’ve come to, the mere act of hugging the president sets off these people.
http://time.com/4608/the-hug-that-killed-my-republican-career/
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Good to see Fox News checking in with some frantic name-calling here. Really, “Chain-gang Charlie” SIX TIMES in one post?
Good luck with that powerful messaging, guys.
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