Author Archives: Dave Trotter
TFS & Voting Trend begin a “deep dive” post-mortem to look at Florida Democrats
If you work in Florida Democratic politics, are in a local Democratic party, or involved in any way, feel free to email me with problems you have noticed with the Florida Democrats . Everything is confidential. Email me at floridademocrats2022@gmail.com. Kartik Krishnaiyer and I are working on a “deep dive” post-mortem which seeks to assess […]
Nowcast update: GOP surging, Simon takes slight lead over Ausley in SD-3 and link for election night video coverage beginning at 7 et/6 ct
Update: Turnout Rate: 40.61% Margin: GOP wins by 9.6% to 11.19% Dem Turnout: 41.16% Rep Turnout: 50.26% State Senate 3 Ausley (D): 49.9% Simon (R): 50.1% Below is the video link for tonight’s coverage.
SD 3: Ausley slightly ahead at 9 am per Nowcast
So, I applied my Enthusiasm Gap Nowcast to Florida Senate District 9. As of 9 AM, I have the results as: Ausley (D): 51.0% Simon (R): 49.0%. You can get the full Nowcast model at Voting Trend.
Democrats struggling statewide- Sign up for the 2022 Nowcast at Voting Trend
You can sign up for my 2022 Nowcast Model at Voting Trend.com to get the latest real-time data from all 67 counties as Florida’s 2022 General Election hits its first weekend of Early Voting. We look at votes already cast, not polls or expert predictions like other sites. Here is a sample some of the […]
Florida Nowcast election update tonight @ 7:30 et
VotingTrend.com members will have access to a call tonight where I will be answering questions about the election, current turnout and updated forecast for Florida. The call will be at 6:30 pm CT. Look for the link at the VotingTrend.com site in drop-down menu that is at the top right hand corner.
Florida Nowcast update- 8 pm et tonight
We will go over my nowcast model and discuss the state of the race in Florida tonight at 8pm ET. You can watch the update below: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyhtP8R70l1bO9DaHq9UAvw
2022 Florida Nowcast Election Model is Here!
The wait is over. Election Day is approaching. And with that, the new 2022 Florida Nowcast Model is here! Using the same algorithm from 2018 and 2020, I have just completed the model for the 2022 General Election. If you are interested in accessing the 2022 model, it’s easy. Just go to my website by clicking […]
Welcome to Voting Trend – a robust daily look at Florida turnout and voting
We will be posting a fresh Nowcast turnout model for 2022 everyday for premium members and other features for general members at my new website Voting Trend. In 2018 and 2020 our Nowcast model that was featured on The Florida Squeeze was the most accurate model in the state, projecting both Ron DeSantis and Donald […]
2022 Turnout Changer Dashboard
Access the dashboard for all 67 counties at the link below https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/dave.trotter/viz/TurnoutChangerDashboard/MapandTotal
The Florida Squeeze 