2016 MSA’s: Jacksonville was Trump’s best large metro area in the Southeast; Miami-Fort Lauderdale was Clinton’s best

We’ve broken down each of the metropolitan areas in the southeast United States with over 1,000,000 residents (with the exception of Washington DC which is partially in the Southeast and partially in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast) by two-party vote in the 2016 Presidential. Not surprisingly the Miami-Fort Lauderdale MSA has the highest Clinton percentage despite the Democratic downturn taking place in Palm Beach County that we’ve written about extensively in the last few months. Miami-Dade, on the other hand is becoming almost as solid blue as Broward at the top-of- the-ticket. Jacksonville was far and away the worst major southeastern metropolitan area for Hillary Clinton – especially stunning when you consider Clinton won just one state in the region (Virginia) and was competitive in just two others (Florida and North Carolina).

Of particular note in this election cycle was the massive movement of the Atlanta suburbs toward the Democrats with Clinton winning Cobb and Gwinnett counties and clearing 80% in DeKalb and Clayton counties. Also it is worth noting how large the shifts toward Democrats have been in the metro areas of Virginia. Richmond’s metro area at one time voted a lot like Jacksonville’s – in 2016 it did support Trump but by a very narrow margin. The Hampton Roads area which was long split between Democrats and Republicans in 2016 supported Clinton by 16 points.

Full table below of all the MSA’s in the Southeast with over a 1,000,000 people in the 2010 census:

MSA 2010 Census Trump Clinton
Miami-Fort Lauderdale 5,564,635 862,999 (35.8%) 1,541,373 (64.2%)
Atlanta-Sandy Springs 5,268,860 1,046,127 (46.6%) 1,202,311 (53.4%)
Tampa-St Petersburg 2,783,243 705,646 (51.8%) 661,565 (48.2%)
Charlotte-Concord 2,204,217 550,193 (52.4%) 498, 133 (47.6%)
Orlando- Kissimmee 2,134,411 456,501 (44.1%) 579,009 (55.9%)
Virginia Beach-Norfolk 1,676,822 263,700 (42.0%) 363,643 (58.0%)
Nashville-Davidson 1,589, 934 376,408 (57.4%) 279,032 (42.6%)
Jacksonville 1,345,596 493,005 (63.0%) 286,843 (37.0%)
Memphis 1,342,842 361,535 (47.8%) 393,417 (52.2%)
Raleigh-Cary 1,302,946 287,151 (44.4%) 359,841 (55.6%)
Richmond 1,281,701 276,432 (51.7%) 257,745 (48.3%)
New Orleans 1,268,883 272,767 (50.4%) 268,880 (49.8%)

 

MSA Final Spread
Miami-Fort Lauderdale Clinton 28.4%
Virginia Beach-Norfolk Clinton 16.0%
Orlando- Kissimmee Clinton 11.8%
Raleigh-Cary Clinton 10.2%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs Clinton 6.8%
Memphis Clinton 4.4%
New Orleans Trump 0.4%
Richmond Trump 3.4%
Tampa-St Petersburg Trump 3.8%
Charlotte-Concord Trump 4.8%
Nashville-Davidson Trump 14.8%
Jacksonville Trump 26.0%

3 comments

  1. barbara miller · · Reply

    Why the terrible outcome in Jacksonville? How do we improve it?

  2. Ex-GOP chair Lennie Curry is Mayor of Jacksonville, might explain how Trump did so well there.

  3. Millennial Democrat · · Reply

    I don’t recall Hillary nor the Florida Democrats campaigning there and investing in that region. No wonder why they got crushed.

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