We’ve broken down each of the metropolitan areas in the southeast United States with over 1,000,000 residents (with the exception of Washington DC which is partially in the Southeast and partially in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast) by two-party vote in the 2016 Presidential. Not surprisingly the Miami-Fort Lauderdale MSA has the highest Clinton percentage despite the Democratic downturn taking place in Palm Beach County that we’ve written about extensively in the last few months. Miami-Dade, on the other hand is becoming almost as solid blue as Broward at the top-of- the-ticket. Jacksonville was far and away the worst major southeastern metropolitan area for Hillary Clinton – especially stunning when you consider Clinton won just one state in the region (Virginia) and was competitive in just two others (Florida and North Carolina).
Of particular note in this election cycle was the massive movement of the Atlanta suburbs toward the Democrats with Clinton winning Cobb and Gwinnett counties and clearing 80% in DeKalb and Clayton counties. Also it is worth noting how large the shifts toward Democrats have been in the metro areas of Virginia. Richmond’s metro area at one time voted a lot like Jacksonville’s – in 2016 it did support Trump but by a very narrow margin. The Hampton Roads area which was long split between Democrats and Republicans in 2016 supported Clinton by 16 points.
Full table below of all the MSA’s in the Southeast with over a 1,000,000 people in the 2010 census:
MSA | 2010 Census | Trump | Clinton |
Miami-Fort Lauderdale | 5,564,635 | 862,999 (35.8%) | 1,541,373 (64.2%) |
Atlanta-Sandy Springs | 5,268,860 | 1,046,127 (46.6%) | 1,202,311 (53.4%) |
Tampa-St Petersburg | 2,783,243 | 705,646 (51.8%) | 661,565 (48.2%) |
Charlotte-Concord | 2,204,217 | 550,193 (52.4%) | 498, 133 (47.6%) |
Orlando- Kissimmee | 2,134,411 | 456,501 (44.1%) | 579,009 (55.9%) |
Virginia Beach-Norfolk | 1,676,822 | 263,700 (42.0%) | 363,643 (58.0%) |
Nashville-Davidson | 1,589, 934 | 376,408 (57.4%) | 279,032 (42.6%) |
Jacksonville | 1,345,596 | 493,005 (63.0%) | 286,843 (37.0%) |
Memphis | 1,342,842 | 361,535 (47.8%) | 393,417 (52.2%) |
Raleigh-Cary | 1,302,946 | 287,151 (44.4%) | 359,841 (55.6%) |
Richmond | 1,281,701 | 276,432 (51.7%) | 257,745 (48.3%) |
New Orleans | 1,268,883 | 272,767 (50.4%) | 268,880 (49.8%) |
MSA | Final Spread |
Miami-Fort Lauderdale | Clinton 28.4% |
Virginia Beach-Norfolk | Clinton 16.0% |
Orlando- Kissimmee | Clinton 11.8% |
Raleigh-Cary | Clinton 10.2% |
Atlanta-Sandy Springs | Clinton 6.8% |
Memphis | Clinton 4.4% |
New Orleans | Trump 0.4% |
Richmond | Trump 3.4% |
Tampa-St Petersburg | Trump 3.8% |
Charlotte-Concord | Trump 4.8% |
Nashville-Davidson | Trump 14.8% |
Jacksonville | Trump 26.0% |
Why the terrible outcome in Jacksonville? How do we improve it?
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Ex-GOP chair Lennie Curry is Mayor of Jacksonville, might explain how Trump did so well there.
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I don’t recall Hillary nor the Florida Democrats campaigning there and investing in that region. No wonder why they got crushed.
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