We’ve taken the 15 biggest counties and done a very basic analysis. Deeper-dive analysis will certainly be done by this website and others in the coming weeks and months. For this analysis we’ve eliminated all votes for third and fourth counties as well as undervotes/overvotes and just taken percentage of the overall vote. In the near future we will look at raw votes and overlay that with population growth and make deeper conclusions.
Some clear patterns are established when comparing the rise/fall from 2000 to 2016 as well as from the high-water mark in many places which was President Obama’s 2008 victory to the failed Clinton effort this past Tuesday. The chart below shows the gradual rise in Democratic performance in Miami-Dade and Orange Counties which mirror that of similar urban areas across the country. In fact, Hillary Clinton did better in both places than President Obama in terms of percentage of the vote. But the rest of the chart tells a sad story of the collapse of Democratic support in the second-tier counties whose growing margins for Republicans helps to undue the immense raw vote margins Democrats take from four counties: Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Orange.
The collapsing Democratic base in areas like Pasco, Volusia and even Brevard and Manatee make it virtually impossible for the party to win statewide elections. You can only squeeze so many votes out of the largest urban counties and the Democrats have quite possibly tapped out every potential vote in these areas. Also of concern is the drop in vote Pinellas County has experienced particularly in the last four years.
|Gore 2000||Kerry 2004||Obama 2008||Obama 2012||Clinton 2016||00-16||08-16|