Democrats need to drive this area more and not just to get from Tampa to Fort Lauderdale.
Post election it became fashionable for Tallahassee-based political writers to credit Rick Scott’s margins along I-10 as the reason for his victory. This was a justified analysis but perhaps an easy one to make particularly sitting in Tallahassee. I, on the other hand, looked at another Interstate Highway, one with far more population neighboring it and a larger vote bank for Republicans – I-75. For purposes of this discussion Alachua, Colombia and Hamilton Counties which are more southern in orientation are not being discussed. This corridor as we are labeling it runs from Marion to Collier. Each county in this corridor has a population of over 100,000 people.
Beginning in Marion County, which has been growing rapidly since 1980 the drive south on I-75 to Collier County represents more than the margin of victory for the GOP in the last two Governor’s races, and some of the best performing counties for the Republicans in terms of vote margin in the 2004, 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections.
Democrats last elected a state legislator from south of Sarasota along the I-75 corridor in 1996 and have seen Republicans increase their vote bank in every county up and down I-75 save Sarasota and Hillsborough since 2000. Pasco and Hernando Counties both supported Al Gore in the 2000 Presidential Election but have since supported Republicans nominees for Governor and President in each contest. During the 2000 Gore Campaign and 2002 McBride Campaign it was thought that Collier, Lee and Charlotte were where GOP margins could be potentially be cut due to environmental considerations. But after not being successful in those counties in the 2000 and 2002 cycles, the Democrats disengaged and have left the area largely uncontested since.
Hillsborough County has also become an issue worth discussing as we look at this corridor. Democrats have carried the city of Tampa and highly urbanized areas around I-275 in most recent statewide contests, but have seen GOP margins increase dramatically in places like Brandon, Riverview, Ruskin and other spots along I-75. This year, Charlie Crist carried the county by a far narrower margin than Barack Obama or Alex Sink did, owing itself largely to a spike in Republican performance in the areas closest to Interstate 75.
In 2000, the Democrats even made an effort to win a State Senate seat that included Marion, Sumter and Lake Counties. No such attempts to carry legislative seats in that area have been made since. Marion County has been producing larger margins for GOP candidates in recent years providing a nice vote bank for any statewide Republican. Yet the Democrats haven’t put resources in the area to even consider cutting GOP margins or finding the voters in the county that might support Democratic causes.
We have seen clear signs of improvement from the Democrats in Sarasota County. The party overperformed in 2008 and 2014 but neighboring Manatee an area with lots of working class voters and a population of African-Americans has not shown any signs of improvement.
Every county along I-75 from Collier through Marion has over a 100,000 residents. Every single one – as compared to I-10 where the counties are almost entirely rural. No doubt Democrats need to make a better effort in North Florida, but it will only get you so far. Engaging voters up and down I-75, who are largely transplants from other parts of the country should help the party hone its messaging and cut the enormous margins GOP candidates are taking out of these counties.
Voter registration numbers overwhelmingly favor Republicans in most of the corridor, but as Sarasota County has proven, a 15 point GOP registration advantage can become only a 4-5 point GOP victory with some effort. Collier and Lee, counties where environmental issues are important can be worked similarly while Marion, Sumter, Hernando and Pasco all have the potential to see GOP margins cut based on smart economic messaging.
I am curious to hear from those of you along I-75 as to why the Democrats are not performing better and whether or not it is largely due to lack of effort.
The Florida Squeeze 
really good analysis.
I wouldbe curious to hear from the statw party as to what the plan is here.
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Given Collier and Lee are as deep Red as Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach are Blue I see any Democratic margin narrowing into Republican registration margins in Lee and Collier as being incremental probabilities that are likely to be powered by external events rather than concerted actions given the current amount of resources available to Democrats.
Sarasota definitely overperformed and from an East Coast perspective we need to learn from their County Leaders how they built their turnout and consider applyiing their techinques in other Red counties.
Florida Democrats, like Democrats throughout the nation have concentrated strength in urban environments where people are in close proximity.
As the Southwest Coast continues to grow in population so will the Democratic strength in those areas.
For the next few election cycles the prospects of a serious intrusion into the Republican registration margins like we saw in Sarasota are not likely to be as transportable as we wish but it is a wise thing to find out from the principals in Sarasota how they view their success.
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Elections are won by getting more Democratic turnout than Republican turnout. But the state and county Democratic party apparatus ignores that time-honored idea.
There are about 500,000 more registered Democrats than registered Republicans in Florida. Here in Pinellas County there are about 5,000 more Democrats then Republicans..Ten years ago I did an analysis of the Pinellas turnout in the 2004 General election by party by gender and by precinct. Not long after I finished that analysis I was at a meeting of a Democratic Club and listened to our then County DEC Chair gush about the Pinellas Democratic turnout in the 2004 General election. 74% Democratic turnout. WOW !!! When she asked for questions and comments I pointed out that the Pinellas Republicans had an 82% turnout in that election. It was as if I let loose an SBD in church. And the pinellas DEC reaction to that analysis was oh hum.
In December 2010 I was elected Treasurer of the Pinellas DEC and urged them to identify and contact, and keep in contact with each Pinellas Democrat who did not vote in the 2010 General election. Another SBD. I lasted eleven months as Treasurer until the Board of the DEC refused to conduct a silent auction so I could follow state law on reporting in-kind contributions. Not anxious to commit a third degree felonuy I resigned in disgust.
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I believe it is a mixture of lack of effort, big city bias, and lack of funding. For instance, the city of Brandon (the largest unincorporated city in Florida and 5th largest city in Central Florida) has grown incredibly diverse between the 2000 and 2010 census. Brandon is 16% Black and 21% Hispanic, however most people still view the community as lacking diversity and ultra conservative. People make decisions based on perception of communities instead of data and facts. If Democrats invested in communities like Brandon Republicans wouldn’t over perform. They over perform not because it’s Red country (it’s a swing community), but because they see value in fighting for the votes there with their money and energy. Another issue is that suburban communities like Brandon are better racially integrated than major cities that are largely still segrgeared. Democrats can hire organizers in East Tampa just to focus on the concentrated black community there—same thing in South St. Pete. It’s not that simple in communities like Brandon. Organizing here has to be intentional and long term. In 2012, the Democrat who ran to represent Brandon and Riverview in the Florida House lost by less than 1% (President Obama carried it), yet the party refused to invest in that seat in 2014. Democrats will need to return to the Obama For America model of competing across Florida with the 3 legged stool focus on expanding the vote through voter registration, getting out the vote by building a strong turn out operation, and narrowing the margins through persuasion organizing with a strong economic message coupled with a targeted focus on social issues in the communities that message resonates with. I believe communities and counties like Brandon, Riverview, Sarasota, Volusia, Manatee, Pinellas, and others require swing community treatment. A Democrat will never win the governor’s mansion unless these “I-75” communities have an opportunity to build a strong Democratic infrastructure. The Republicans are organizing their assess off in these areas and we’re letting them do it unanswered. Most DECs don’t even engage Democrats in suburban communities (they leave it to largely social local clubs). Their meetings and events are almost always in the urban centers quite a drive away from those communities. Why would these registered Democrats care about a local DEC that refuses to engage them? The Sarasota DEC does regular outreach to all newly Registered Democrats in the county. Rita F., JoAnne D., and her team deserve a lot of credit and could teach a lot of DEC chairs how to squeeze the margins. 2008 was a great watermark for Sarasota. The President came within 300 votes of winning. In nearby Manatee the President received 46% of the vote. There’s tons of opportunity out there, but it will require treasure (money), time, talent, and training.
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I believe it is a mixture of lack of effort, big city bias, and lack of funding. For instance, the city of Brandon (the largest unincorporated city in Florida and 5th largest city in Central Florida) has grown incredibly diverse between the 2000 and 2010 census. Brandon is 16% Black and 21% Hispanic, however most people still view the community as lacking diversity and ultra conservative. People make decisions based on perception of communities instead of data and facts. If Democrats invested in communities like Brandon Republicans wouldn’t over perform. They over perform not because it’s Red country (it’s a swing community), but because they see value in fighting for the votes there with their money and energy.
Another issue is that suburban communities like Brandon are better racially integrated than major cities that are largely still segrgeared. Democrats can hire organizers in East Tampa just to focus on the concentrated black community there—same thing in South St. Pete. It’s not that simple in communities like Brandon. Organizing here has to be intentional and long term. In 2012, the Democrat who ran to represent Brandon and Riverview in the Florida House lost by less than 1% (President Obama carried it), yet the party refused to invest in that seat in 2014. Democrats will need to return to the Obama For America model of competing across Florida with the 3 legged stool focus on expanding the vote through voter registration, getting out the vote by building a strong turn out operation, and narrowing the margins through persuasion organizing with a strong economic message coupled with a targeted focus on social issues in the communities that message resonates with. I believe communities and counties like Brandon, Riverview, Sarasota, Volusia, Manatee, Pinellas, and others require swing community treatment. A Democrat will never win the governor’s mansion unless these “I-75” communities have an opportunity to build a strong Democratic infrastructure. The Republicans are organizing their assess off in these areas and we’re letting them do it unanswered. Most DECs don’t even engage Democrats in diverse suburban communities (they leave it to largely social local clubs). Their meetings and events are almost always in the urban centers quite a drive away from those communities. Why would these registered Democrats care about a local DEC that refuses to engage them where they live? The Sarasota DEC does regular outreach to all newly Registered Democrats in the county. Rita F., JoAnne D., and other Sarasota DEC leaders deserve a lot of credit and could teach a lot of DEC chairs how to squeeze the margins. 2008 was a great watermark for Sarasota. The President came within 300 votes of winning. In nearby Manatee the President received 46% of the vote. There’s tons of opportunity out there, but it will require treasure (money), time, talent, and training and a sincere belief in fighting for votes strategically regardless of geography, gender, and race.
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Even more reason to relocate the Florida Democratic Party!! Keep a skeleton crew up in Tallahassee, and put the work force where the voters are…or the potential voters. That out of sight, out of mind is a truism for a reason!!
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Mike,
I read your post concerning Sarasota. It wasn’t the first time I have read something like that. I have also read similar posts and articles about Palm Beach County. I am sorry but the results I see in both counties do not provide hope for future modeling. It would be foolish to keep repeating this story line and going down a rabbit hole.
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[…] are winning statewide elections because of consistent over-performance in the medium sized counties up and down I-75 and I-95. The counties where Democratic performance MUST improve are not Franklin or Hamilton but […]
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[…] Party planners because they are considered “red” areas. Democrats were beaten soundly up and down Interstate 75 in this last cycle, without expending much effort to cut margins outside Sarasota County. The party […]
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[…] the small counties along I-10. The reality is that the Republicans win statewide elections because of performance in medium sized counties along I-75. Democrats must engage more in these counties which part of the reason the idea of allocating State […]
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[…] out that Democrats could have won the statewide election by focusing on the I-10 corridor. I countered on these pages claiming the I-75 corridor was more important, something I continue to believe as Democratic fortunes in statewide races have continued to […]
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