The Wyllie factor

Recent public polls in the Governor’s race have continued to show Libertarian Party Adrian Wyllie polling above 5% and even as high as 10% in some surveys. History however shows us that with the notable exception of the 1992 and 1996 pre-election polls, third party candidates tend to flame out on Election Day. Why is this?

A theory I have long held is that voters love to tell pollsters that they are doing something different and that they appear to be independent in their thought process. Particularly in a race that has been as negative and poisonous as the Crist-Scott race, it may feel good for many individuals who are polled to say they are supporting the Libertarian candidate. We have seen this effect in previous high-profile races and then major disappointment election night for the third parties such as the Libertarians, Greens and Reform.

The reality is after years and years of studying elections I have never seen a candidate of Wylie’s profile end up anywhere near where he was polling. My best guess is that he only retains the support of about half the number of voters that he is polling at. That would put him somewhere between 3 and 4% and likely end Rick Scott’s already slim chances of reelection.

Of course we will know tonight if I am correct, but history has proven candidates like Wylie flame our Election Day and the major parties benefit. In this case, Charlie Crist, the one candidate in the race who has proven he cares about this state and who has attempted to extenuate a positive message for Floridians is the likely beneficiary. But of course, in this era of increased NPA registration, it is entirely possible a third party candidate does break through with a big number in Florida at some point. I just do not think it will be today.


  1. J Burkiewicz · ·

    My friends, family and I are all voting for the best candidate and good man Adrian Wyllie for Florida Governor! Don’t waste your vote voting for one of the corrupt bought and paid republican governor’s! If you vote like me we end up with change, if you vote for ether failure of a republican governor, you end up with more of the same crap!


  2. Unfortunately Floridians, and Americans have not parted much from the two party system. I hope one day for a real strong third party, but actually a NO party system is far far better. With Wyllies numbers not coming close to a win, he may only now make this race tougher and as one candidate will lose,-all those supporters will be saying “if it were not for the third guy in the race…” I give Wyllie many kudos for running, as it is very hard for a third party candidate to do, trust me I know first hand. But right now we have a neck and neck race and my research of facts vs lies, indicates to me that Rick Scott has got to go. I hope Wyllie staying in , does not hand that to Scott


  3. OrlandoChris · ·

    I am voting for Adrian Wyllie because he would make a better Governor than Scott or Crist.


    1. That’s great, and thank God your right. But know because he has no chance this time around and has not gotten out of the race, you will certainly get one of the two that you did not want, which if Scott gets in, and does not need votes anymore,t could be the worst thing done to this state in a long time.
      If we can demand campaign finance reform. Real reform, maybe a third party, no party candidate will get the chance. Until then, this is what I was trying to tell people. The voters say they had enough, then vote partisan anyway. Get rid of the money and it will give the third party, and no party candidates a chance to compete.


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