A discussion on the Annette Taddeo piece I wrote the other day quickly turned into a Nan Rich debate about her poll numbers. In the comments, there was a fairly heated discussion about Rich’s popularity numbers over time. As if on cue, Wednesday morning a new Quinnipiac poll was released, showing almost exactly what I predicted in the comments.
There is a lot of academic study behind the study of polls. There are whole college courses, a library of books, and entire academic journals that all center on public opinion polling. Quinnipiac is one of the best and is one of the most significant because they take the same questions and poll it over time, so that changing demographics can be documented. It is one of the most respected polls out there in academia. The reason for this respect is that they poll issues over a long time period by repeatedly studying the issue. They ask the same questions in the exact same order in the exact same way, so there is little room for variation. If you would like to learn more, you may read here and here.
There were many interesting tidbits in the polls: Rick Scott’s highest ‘favorable’ rating yet, Crist continues to yo-yo, and the flat approval ratings of the Florida legislature. While there were quite a few headlines about the lack of trust in Scott and Crist (and we can just table the discussion of Scott beating Rich in every demographic in question #3), the part that dealt with our debate is question #6.
| 6. Is your opinion of Nan Rich favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about her? | |||||||
| AGE IN YRS………….. | |||||||
| Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ | |||||||
| Favorable 8% 1% 15% 9% 8% 8% 14% 8% 8% 6% | |||||||
| Unfavorable 5 9 2 5 7 4 7 7 5 3 | |||||||
| Hvn’t hrd enough 85 90 83 86 84 87 78 84 87 89 | |||||||
| REFUSED 1 – 1 1 1 1 1 1 – 1 | |||||||
| TREND: Is your opinion of Nan Rich favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about her? | |||||||||
| Apr 30 Jan 30 Nov 21 Jun 18 Dec 19 | |||||||||
| 2014 2014 2013 2013 2012 | |||||||||
| Favorable 8 7 8 7 6 | |||||||||
| Unfavorable 5 6 5 6 4 | |||||||||
| Hvn’t hrd enough 85 86 86 84 90 | |||||||||
| REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 | |||||||||
As of June, 85% of people polled did not have enough information about Nan Rich to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her. The problem with this number is simply that the trend has not moved significantly since she started campaigning. In other words, this means that she simply is not getting her name, message, or political identify out to the voters of Florida. She is unable to get higher than 8 percent of people with a “favorable opinion,” meaning she has moved 2 points in 18 months since she started 2012 with 6 points.
Nothing adds up to good news for Rich.
How can you win a primary with such low numbers? Even when you look at Democrats, only 15% have a favorable opinion, versus 79% for Crist. While Crist has a higher ‘unfavorable’ ranking, the majority of all demographics do not have any opinion on Nan Rich or need more information. Even if all of those 15% turn out who do at least know who she is, there is no way that will ever be enough to win a primary because only 10% of Democrats disapprove of Crist. In all likelihood, Democrats that disapprove of Scott and approve of Nan have a lot of overlap, so there are very few ways for Rich to piece together a 20% chunk of the vote, much less 50%.
More Democrats favor Crist with an overwhelming majority so much so that there is no possible coalition for Rich to put together. 20% of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of Crist, so assuming that Rich can take those 20% (and similar demographics show up at the polls), she would have to convince another 30% to vote for her, which is unlikely. There is a real question if 50% of Democrats even know who she is, making a primary win out of reach.
There is also a problem with her highest percentages being in the 18-29 column, because this demographic are the least likely to vote, especially in a primary campaign. When you move up in age, her favorable rating goes down with people more likely to vote.
There is a serious question if there is any possible mathematical way that Nan Rich can win. Assuming that the primary turn-out is normal for a governor’s race in Florida, perhaps even on the low end, there is simply no way Rich can get over 25%. At this point, considering her increasingly negative attacks on Crist, this does not bode well for the general election in the battle against Scott.
And please note these are criticisms of Rich as a campaigner, not a candidate. While she has every right to campaign, polling numbers are simply a reflection of the effectiveness of a campaign.
And the math does not add up for Rich.
The Florida Squeeze 
Katy, I will admit it is a daunting job for Nan to get to the masses considering the party’s bias, the media and polls ignoring her, the lack of funds and the fact Charlie has already been Governor and has been known statewide for 16 years. Personally I think she has done an outstanding job considering everyone working against her. Nan is a brilliant lady.The type of lady that would do the party and the state proud if she were to become it’s first woman Governor. You obviously know a lot about polls. You also know very little about Nan. I have never seen anyone work as hard as Nan. In spite of the math up until this point, the only poll that matters is the one on election day. Trust me Charlie is sweating and fading. Why do you think he announced his Lt. Gov. now? Oh, one more thing Who would you like to see win?
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Ok, she’s a hard worker, brilliant (I’ll take your word for that), she’d do the party proud to be the first female Governor. I don’t disagree with any of those statements you’ve made. But you open your comments with a litany of reasons why she won’t/can’t win. Those are the very reasons Democrats like me will vote for Crist on August 26th. Nothing is more important in November 2014 than sending Ricky Scott back to Naples as a former Governor and Charlie Crist, with all his potential baggage, has the BEST CHANGE to make that happen.
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So Joe, do you REALLY want to look at that leering, shiny-pated creep for four more years? Because that’s what we’ll reap going with the Greta Garbo of FL politics! Politics is a dirty business, and especially so in FL. Let’s all try to work together this time–please?
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Nan has said if Charlie wins she would support him a number of times. Charlie hasn’t said Squat. This primary is a battle for the heart and soul of the FDP. Vote Nan and we have a future. Charlie has stated if elected nothing will change. He continues to call himself a Jeb Bush and Ronald Reagan republican. No thanks. Been there done that.
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Katy, let me be unfair for just a moment. One of my first recollections of things political was staying up late into the night with my family and listening to the returns in the Truman/Dewy presidential contest. As an aside and correct me if I am wrong but I think that was the first election polled by the Gallup organization. That was the famous election that Dewey won several hours before Truman. The first campaign I ever worked as a volunteer was for John Kennedy in the West Virginia primary in the summer of 1960. I was three years away from being old enough to vote.
I have heard many times from people far more knowledgeable than I that polls become more relevant the closer they are to the election and until four to five weeks before an election the value of these early polls is primarily to provide copy for newspapers and help political pundits fill air time. This all makes sense as most voters are not political junkies like you and me but are busy paying the rent and keeping food on the table. These polls mean very little before likely voters start paying attention.
All polls whether taken yesterday, last week or a month ago live in the rear view mirror and the rear view mirror is not a crystal ball.
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Even if she may not have the math, a vote for her is a matter of principle, a vote of conscience. It may also be a vote of no confidence in either Crist or Scott. In a democracy it is nice to be able to vote by principle and conscience and not money donated, party support of the candidate, and political maneuver. The more they hit on her, the more I “Stand by Nan.”
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Agree. And I have never missed an election primary or general. Crist can take the Davis rocking chair ad for just one of many reasons he (CC) can not be a true democratic governor.
NAN RICH for Governor.
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I know from 1st hand that the night of President Obama’s Inauguration, the FDP committed to pick Charlie Crist as their standard barer. Nan was not just ignored by the party big wigs, they have consistently worked against her. So many of us grass roots types are again discussed with party leadership. Will someone please tell DWS to stay out of the state’s pick for leadership?
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Yes, Sharon, and that scenario took place with those noble souls in FL who voted for Ralph Nader, and it got us what?? We have a raging fire of a disaster in the governor’s mansion which all hands must get on deck to extinguish on Aug. 26th AND Nov. 4th. There is no wiggle room for high and mighty “principles”–we ordinary Floridians are trying to SURVIVE the egregious damage P. Rick Scott has done to this state (which was already a disgrace after 8 yrs. of Jebthro) This carny huckster should never have attained what he did, and only under the auspices of the GOP mob (and I do mean MOB) was he able to buy the highest office in the now third largest state in the Union. Let’s all take a big dose of reality, vote for the likely winner–Charlie Crist–and then get going on GOTV all over this state! I met Nan Rich this week, she is a top-drawer Democrat and Floridian, but we Dems are tired of being bridesmaids but never the bride since 1998, and watching Rome burn down all the while!
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What the primary will do is show how many Democrats Crist needs to win over for the general election. An overwhelming majority of these are protest votes against Crist. If he blows Nan out of the water, he has less to fear. If it is closer (around 60%), he is in big, big trouble.
He also has another potential HUGE problem. If the primary is 60-40 for Crist, what is his campaign strategy? Usually, after a primary, a campaign will move to the center. But in the case of Crist, he has to win over a huge chunk of progressive voters. Moving to the center will alienate these voters even further and could be catastrophic for Crist. On the other hand, if he moves to the left during the general, he can no longer campaign on the “I get along with everyone”, and he will alienate some in the center-right that would consider voting for him. Either way, in order for him to perform well in the general, he needs to hit a grand slam in the primary.And what I mean by “grand slam” is 80%+. Even 1/4th of primary voters voting against him could spell trouble.
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This is an excellent point. Charlie has got to find a base of support and he’s going to do with whoever can give him the biggest numbers.
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How does she get to 40% when 83% of Dems don’t know enough about her to comment on her.
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That is the big question.
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Pure anti-Crist vote…anyone but Crist.
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He can man up and show respect to Nan Rich. No debate, no progressive support.
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he will get well over 80% in the primary. nan who?
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What job are you hoping to get from Crist?
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Yes David, but how do we blame Amy Ritter and Susannah Randolph for this? THAT is the question.
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I don’t care, not my problem. I find both of them infantile in their logical reasoning regarding politics, as well as pity them for their conspiracy theories regarding how everyone is after them. I have more productive things to do than talk about those two, like watching YouTube videos of people playing video games.
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Not mentioned here: Her turnover in staff, her missed paychecks, & her mistreatment of staffers. Every single staffer who has left that campaign got a better job at a higher profile race and every single one of them is far happier for it.
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David, You really don’t know squat. Are you delusional or just throwing shit on the wall to see what sticks.
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Just to name two, her former finance director, Brendon Rivard is working a congressional race to unseat Congressman King. Her scheduler, Jenny Busby, left for an FDP job. Who are you thinking of?
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In all fairness, David, Jenny Busby did a shit job.
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Turnover in staff? Who are you referring to?
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Staffers leave when they are offered more money.
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Staffers also leave when they see a losing campaign.
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You are nuts. Jenny left for a bigger and better job. Oh, wait a minute. You must be thinking of Charlies Staff.
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YOU calling someone else nuts? laugh of the week.
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Like rats jumping ship….
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Forget The POLL. & Predictions. Something is happening you cannot predict. FLA is tired of Bush & Co. Crist and Scott=Bush No more. Both Bush Cronies
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Comment from an obscure, unknown, incapable of rational thought, Boynton Beach wanna-be blogger named Wimes, who pretends she’s a Democrat. Some people should not be allowed to vote, imo. “Make no mistake about it, if Crist is in fact the nominee, I’m going to do everything I can to make sure he loses…”
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