This week Charlie Crist announced Annette Taddeo as his pick for Lieutenant Governor and running mate. Now, it has been clear for a while that Taddeo was a logical choice for Crist. While everyone was aware of his desire to appoint Dan Gelber to the position, the changing demographics of voters has come to mean that if a white guy is running, he must pick a minority to run with in order to attract additional voters. Candidates all over the country are realizing that you cannot run two older white males and win – diversity is the new key to winning. As soon as Rick Scott caught up in the polls, it became clear that Crist had to choose a minority. While many were floating the idea of Val Demings, that simply was not ever politically viable. The reality that that African-American voters cannot be counted on in a midterm election to turn out (see data from 2010) and while Demings is more experienced, Orange is not as important as Miami-Dade. Of course, the choice of both candidates of South Floridian Hispanic running mates shows how important the Hispanic vote. However, with both candidates picking south Florida Hispanics, it will be interesting to see how the data falls and who the moderate Hispanics vote for – or if they stay home.
Taddeo brings many things to the table. An accomplished organizer, a wonderful speaker, a Latina, and a woman, she brings wonderful energy and vitality to the campaign and is genuinely respected by those that work with her. However, there is a catch: Annette Taddeo has absolutely no experience in elected office. If she were to win, she would be the only Lieutenant Governor to have never served elected office. Granted, Crist is the most politically experienced candidate ever to run for Governor in the state of Florida and his experience more than balances the ticket, and at 57, there is little fear that Crist is going anywhere anytime soon. Yet to put someone with no experience in government a heartbeat away from leading the state of Florida makes everyone a little nervous. –
There is also problem in that Taddeo does absolutely nothing for the traditional Democratic base, most of whom have no idea who she is. It is not as if the Democratic base is going to go out and vote for Rick Scott, but there is a genuine possibility that they will stay hope. While Taddeo could help motivate Hispanic voters in South Florida, will her lack of name recognition and experience hurt in the rest of the state? This is especially a worry in Tampa and Orlando, who have few connections to the Miami county leader. By placing this heavy emphasis on South Florida, the rest of the state will have to increase their GOTV efforts. While there was definitely limited choices for Crist, his campaign will have to address these issues.
And there is a real question if Taddeo will help with women. There is definite academic evidence to suggest that a woman on the ticket does not necessarily mean an automatic bump. In 2007 when Hillary Clinton was preparing for a run at the White House, an AP study found “And that while women are more likely to vote for a candidate because she is female, they are also more likely to dismiss her for that very same reason.” Women voters tend to be more analytical (sorry fellows, that is just the political science talking), so once women hear she does not have political experience, it could actually hurt; see the Sarah Palin effect. There is solid data to show that women will not simply vote for a woman because they are women. While assuredly Taddeo is a much better public speaker and a strong left-party leader, the lack of experience is a real issue and women will notice and are much more likely to hold it against her because she is a woman.
Additional readings on the subject of women voters for the brave and curious:
http://www.ropercenter.org/public-perspective/ppscan/72/72010.pdf
The Consequences of Gender Stereotypes for Women Candidates at Different Levels and Types of Office
Sex as a Political Variable: Women as Candidates and Voters in U.S. Elections
The timing of the announcement is perhaps the more interesting part. Make no mistake that Charlie Crist is campaigning against Nan Rich constantly. Pretending she is not there is the cheapest, most effective way to do so and Crist had little other choice – he cannot afford to put any time or money into battling Nan Rich. And as all polls indicate, it is working beautifully. By simply ignoring her, he is wasting no resources and firmly pushing her further into obscurity. It is a primary and while it is a nontraditional way of campaigning for a primary, it is no doubt working according to every single poll. Politicians have to play to win and with a foe as large at Rick Scott, it was completely expected Crist had to do what was cheapest to fight Rich.
There is a huge bet on this strategy though – the only way to justify this method after the primary is to completely bury Rich in order to justify his ignoring her. As the polls indicate, most of the party wants a debate and while it would seem like a simply concession, ultimately it would just lead to potential harm. Crist knows perfectly well that his is alienating party of the party – and has calculated that risk. Nonetheless, he has to not only prevail against Rich, but he has got to show she is irrelevant in order to bring the base back around. He has got to hold her to under 20% to do this and it looks like that is exactly what is is going to do. His premature running mate choice helps – a firm voice for the left side of the party, he firmly attacks the Nan Rich constituency by choosing Taddeo. Not only does it firm up his progressive credentials, it chips away at the possible groups that Nan Rich can go to for support. There are few candidates in the state of Florida that really would have helped him on his ticket against Scott, so this choice to sure up the left definitely showed that he is indeed campaigning against Rich.
The more ingenious part of the Crist’s Rich strategy is that he simply used her biggest weakness – this being name recognition- against her, which was exactly what you are supposed to do in politics. Who is the say that Rick Scott will not treat her the same way? With Scott dominating every poll against Rich by huge margins, Scott will not even have to recognize Rich in order to beat her the exact same way. Scott will not have to debate Nan or even attack her in order to waltz back into the Governor’s mansion.
Update:
Here is the data from the April Quinnipiac poll that I referenced. As you can clearly see, when 80-90% of people have not heard enough about a candidate, chances are they are NOT going to vote for them. This poll remains largely unchanged from identical polls last fall and last summer, meaning that Nan is not gathering new votes.
Click to access fl04302014_ap49yv.pdf
6. Is your opinion of Nan Rich favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about her?
AGE IN YRS…………..
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+
Favorable 8% 1% 15% 9% 8% 8% 14% 8% 8% 6%
Unfavorable 5 9 2 5 7 4 7 7 5 3
Hvn’t hrd enough 85 90 83 86 84 87 78 84 87 89
REFUSED 1 – 1 1 1 1 1 1 – 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Nan Rich favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about her?
Apr 30 Jan 30 Nov 21 Jun 18 Dec 19
2014 2014 2013 2013 2012
Favorable 8 7 8 7 6
Unfavorable 5 6 5 6 4
Hvn’t hrd enough 85 86 86 84 90
REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1
The Florida Squeeze 
Nan Rich is not irrelevant. I have supported Graham, Pajcic, Chiles, McKay,McBride, Davis, Sink and will proudly vote for Rich in August.That Crist rocking chair ad against Davis still seems to me to have been very mean-spirited and hard to forgive. Crist ignores Rich and he will not have strong support in November. Crist’s lack of respect for the only real Democrat in the race discourages lifelong Democrats.
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This time around, I am confident that voters in FL are motivated enough that if a blizzard should hit FL on election day (and why are we still voting in person, anyway?) enough anti-Scott voters will turn out to give Crist, presumed nominee, a landslide victory. To preclude any GOP shenanigans, D’s and Independent voters should either vote early or vote by mail. Now, how hard is that? If we won’t mind looking at that leering hairless creep for another four years, then I guess voting will not be a priority!
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Thank you for pointing out that women don’t necessarily vote for women. I for one do not, I vote for the candidate I think has the best interest of the citizens and if it is a woman, then that’s who I will vote for. To that end, I am proud to say “I am voting for Nan Rich for governor. I’m from Miami-Dade County and the selection of Taddeo did not change my mind.
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Anette Taddedo-Goldstein is a disaster!
She is a two time looser for office – loosing for Congress and County Commission!
At least Charlie and her have that in common.
She doesn’t have half the support of her own DEC in Miami.
This whole move is a ploy to cover up his stupid and dasasterous “chicken” decision to not go to Cuba this last week with the business delegation that lost him millions in state, national and international financial support and positive publicity and to prove that he would have been a smart and decisive leader instead of the flip flop chicken Charlie that he really is.
She’s just a puppet of Debbie Wasserman Shultz, Allison Tant and the crooks that run the FDP now that are just there to save their own asses and keep their loosing consultants on the gravy train payroll.
Charlie will loose by 5 points on election day and Taddedo-Goldstein will not help!
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You nailed it!
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The job as Lt. Gov. is as inconsequential as this story. If Nan Rich does win aren’t you going to feel stupid. Worse yet say she loses by single digits you and all the short sighted pundits will be to blame for doubting Nan’s determination and her supporters passion for the better candidate.
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Deal – I will take the blame if Nan Rich looses if you take the blame if Scott gets re-elected.
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Hey Joe,
While Crist and now Annette are running against Scott, Nan is trying to run against Crist and the only issue she is pushing is for a debate that would never have happened anyway. I love Nan for pushing the progressive causes. But, Crist is going to win the primary and we all in the left will not ever vote for Scott. The only mystery is who are you and Nan and all her supporters voting for once Nan is out?
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I’ve never voted for Crist before and Millions of Democrats have voted against him in the past.. While I welcome him into the church I and the millions of people who despise him don’t want him leading the choir.You see the only poll you haven’t quoted is the one that has him at 48% who look at Charlie unfavorably. He can’t beat Scott. And when Scotts swift boaters get through with him It will be 4 more years of Rick Scott. I blame the party bosses, the corporate media, sellouts like Dan {how does it feel to be stabbed in the back.} Gelber. I will not forgive the sell outs to vote for Republican Light. You just may lose a lifelong Democrat, and I won’t be the only one. Let me see, who is running as an independent
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you “despise” him? how old are you, 10?
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Annette Taddeo has proven herself to be politically savvy and adept at running the Miami Dade Dem Party. She is the best thing to have happened to the Party. And her national committees experience together with her being a CEO of her own business makes her a good choice for a running mate.
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The only thing she proved is that she can kiss DWS ass.
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“And as all polls indicate, it is working beautifully. By simply ignoring her, he is wasting no resources and firmly pushing her further into obscurity. It is a primary and while it is a nontraditional way of campaigning for a primary, it is no doubt working according to every single poll.”
“He has got to hold her to under 20% to do this and it looks like that is exactly what is going to do.”
“With Scott dominating every poll against Rich by huge margins,”.
Could someone please provide a source for the polls alluded to in this article.
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Here is a summary of polls from Huffington Post – it shows multiple polls over time.
Scott wins each one, ranging from 4 to 13 points. They have links to each poll for more detailed information.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-florida-governor-scott-vs-rich
I can find more if you need, but this is the more comprehensive.
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The polls do not support your assertion of “firmly pushing her further into obscurity” or that “it is no doubt working according to every single poll”. Quinnipiac polls of mid June, 2013 and late April, 2014 have the same 6% lead for Scott. These are polls with large samples, 1,176 and 1,413. The polls that give the largest lead to Scott, 15% by U of F and 11% by the Chamber of Commerce sample relatively small populations and have larger margins of error. Scott is clearly not ” dominating every poll against Rich by huge margins,”. In fact the average of all the polls is 7%, not a huge margin by any measure especially since the election is not held until November.
Hold on folks there is a lot more fun to come.
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The problem in the polls about Scott is that most of the time they are voting against Scott, not exactly FOR Rich, which doesn’t help her in the primary. As shown in the April Q poll, not enough Democrats know who she is to beat either Crist or Scott.
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How about the poll that shows Charlie with 48% unfavorability?.
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I think the latest polls are the only real indication. How people felt last year is inconsequential.
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Source… http://ballotpedia.org/Nan_Rich
Poll Rich (D) Scott* (R) Undecided Margin of Error Sample Size
Quinnipiac (June 11-16, 2013) 36% 42% 18% +/-2.9 1,176
PPP (September 27-29, 2013) 36% 37% 27% +/-4.1 579
U of F (September 30-October 8, 2013) 28% 43% 27% +/-4.27 526
Chamber of Commerce (October 4-8, 2013) 29% 40% 31% +/-4.0 618
Quinnipiac (November 12-17, 2013) 35% 43% 14% +/-2.4 1,646
PPP (January 16-21, 2014) 34% 40% 25% +/-6.3 591
Quinnipiac (January 22-27, 2014) 37% 41% 19% +/-2.5 1,565
U of F (January 27-February 1, 2014) 36% 41% 0% +/-3.0 1,006
Saint Leo University (March 16-19, 2014) 32% 40% 28% +/-3.5 401
Quinnipiac(April 23-28, 2014) 36% 42% 15% +/-2.6 1,413
AVERAGES 33.9% 40.9% 20.4% +/-3.56 952.1
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
I find no polls of Charlie Crist verses Nan Rich
No polls of Rich v Scott since April 2014.
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I updated the post showing the late-April Quinnipiac poll showing that 80-90% of voters said that they did not have enough information on Nan Rich to have an opinion on her. Link at the end of the article. When the vast majority of voters – even Democrats – are unaware of a candidate, it is hard to poll, which partially explains the lack of polls about Nan Rich.
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Katy, replying to you update on the Quinnipiac poll of April 30, 2014:
I understand your point. However, it was not until mid June that our “big city media” even acknowledged that Senator Rich was a candidate. Since she qualified they seem compelled to give her some coverage but still seem reluctant. I am not accusing them of bias but news is their bread and butter and the great huge American novel aspect of the prodigal ex Governor returning to vanquish the evil Rick Scott and regain control of the castle is certainly just too much to resist. It was in late May that I actually suggested to Senator Rich that she should rob a bank. She of course rejected the suggestion.
My point is that there has been so much water under the bridge since the April poll that it is of value only to historians.
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Tom, the issue is that this poll has been done multiple times, not just one point in history. Since the beginning of 2013, Nan Rich has not been able to increase that 8%. That is the worrying factor. Yes, this number will go up with the media attention in June – but how much? My guess is that it could go up to maybe 15%, but there is no feasible way it is ever going to go over 20%. She just has not been getting the word out enough. I live in Gainesville and she has gotten zero media attention here, very little in Tampa, very little in Orlando. While she is doing better in South Florida, it is not enough to carry the rest of the state.
It is just math. If she had money for a huge media buy or press tour it would be one thing, but that money is not there.
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I don’t think that the choice of Taddeo will make any difference. Picking a LG candidate to capture one electorate or another has not proven to be successful in Florida. Just look at 2010. Did the selection of Jennifer Carroll help Rick Scott with either capturing the black or female vote? No, not at all. African-Americans voted for Sink with 93% and women for Sink with 52%.
On the other hand, it does seem that the person who leads the ticket might matter. Davis and Crist split the female vote in 2006, but turnout among women was 4% higher for Sink than Davis. This shows that Sink might have helped female turnout. I think nobody knows crap about LG candidates, especially in a state like Florida where people working in the party don’t even know politics.
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Katy, you have a bowl full of apples and Oranges. There are 2 elections if Nan wins the primary you can take all your polls to the shredder. Everyone will know who Nan is and she will outwork Scott the same way she is outworking.Charlie. She will have enough money to get her message out and she will have plenty of help from the activists. She will rally the troops the way that Charlie can’t. Also the 82 % who don’t know enough of Nan. Aren’t voting in the Democratic Primary. Katy, you and all the pundits will have some splaining to do.
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Any way you want to look at it is your personal business, however, an 8% approval rating among likely voters cannot in any way add up to a win. Are you hoping the other 80% of the electorate don’t show up?
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You can’t approve of someone you know nothing about. Unlike Charlie Crist, Senator Rich can fix her problems.
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You can fix problems, but you can’t fix math.
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Katy I.m sure you are a very nice lady but you can’t win. Sounds like you are buying what Charlies operatives are selling. Please read my last comment again. IF Nan wins the primary every democrat and independent will know her. Also Charlie and Scott both have have 48% unfavorables. Time to start reassessing your calculations.
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Seriously? I think Katy made a great point. The fuzzy math coming from Nan supporters doesn’t add up. I mean, I support her and everything, but I also deal with reality. Someone with 8% approval rating is not going to win a primary.
So, let’s say 100% of that 8% show up. In a race that will probably have 19%-23% turnout, Nan would only get 42% with 19% turnout and 35% with 23% turnout. She would have to rely on those voters who disapprove of Crist. The problem is that many of those who disapprove are in that 8%.
The issue is that she would need 100% of her supporters to show up at the polls and that won’t happen. Even Jesus can’t pull that kind of electoral muscle. As of my numbers right now, I see Crist winning over Nan by 60% to 40%, using the approval-disapproval ratings as well as historic projected turnout. Crist’s high negatives will help her, but not enough to make a huge difference.
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Thank you for your sound logic, Dave. Joe, you should also look into “Math: Not an Evil Republican Conspiracy”
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I think it is funny that I got seven thumbs down in a matter of three minutes on my last comment. Must be drinkin’ time for the FDP staff, as well as with Ryan! 🙂
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Thanks for the 40%. Dave. Considering she started at 4% I would say she is trending up. Stay tuned.
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Honestly, Joe, I should clarify (as I didn’t mention something). I think that 60% to 40% is the best case scenario. I have Crist winning anywhere from 60% to 89% when I run the numbers with different turnout scenarios. I predict that Crist will not get under 60%.
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Katy the Republicans are evil and they are always conspiring.
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Katy & Dave are 100% correct. You got to admire Joe for trying against all odds for supporting Nan Rich but the REALITY is that Joe and Nan are living in a dream world and weather you like it or not Charlie is going to win by 60 to 80 percent in the primary.
After that, it’s too close to call but if the election was to be held today, Charlie will loose by 2 to 4 percent.
And both Lt Gov candidates are idiots. Lopez-Cantera can’t speak and Anette Taddeo is a two time looser who’se only claim to fame is that she is a puppet of the DWS Allison Tant cabal who are destroying the Democratic Party in Florida.
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Numbers do lie. The way surveys ask their questions influence answers. History is replete with bad math. The only poll that matters is the one on election day.be prepared to eat Chicken Charlie…er… I mean crow.
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It amazes me that so many in this party continue to repeat and believe lies. Eventually they are repeated so often everyone just assumes they are true.
Taddeo – Her qualifications – LIE
Taddeo – Her accomplishments as Miami-Dade Chair – LIE
Allison Tant – Her fundraising – LIE
Allison Tant – Accomplishments as Chair – LIE
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Pls utilize services of a proofreader before publishing online.
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[…] discussion on the Annette Taddeo piece I wrote the other day quickly turned into a Nan Rich debate about her poll numbers. In the comments, […]
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