Continuing with a theme we’ve developed over the past few weeks regarding the loss of rural voters by Florida Democrats, I thought today would be a good day to compare the 1996 Presidential Race where Bill Clinton as an incumbent won the state overwhelmingly (keep in mind Clinton lost Florida in 1992 by under two points) to Barack Obama’s three point win 2008. In a twelve-year period between these two elections the Democrats went from holding a majority of rural seats in the Florida House to holding just two (both of which have since been lost). The Democrats also went from winning about half the rural counties in the state at the top of the ticket to winning none outside of the Tallahassee area. The decline in the rural vote is something Democrats have been unable to curb and combined with the continued problems of the party in exurban and many suburban parts of the state, it is difficult to build a lasting majority.

Note: This study is two-party vote ONLY, and does not include votes cast for third party candidates including H. Ross Perot in 1996.

Three biggest declines Clinton 1996 vs. Obama 2008

Dixie  -28%

Gilchrist -25%

Holmes -25%

All nine counties where Obama suffered a more than twenty point decline from Clinton’s percentage were north of Ocala. These conservative north Florida Democrats have gradually been leaving the party of their forefathers. It is difficult to completely dismiss the issue of race when evaluating the numbers from the three counties listed above and the additional six counties where Obama’s percentage declined by over 20% from Clinton’s. However, cultural issues probably play a large role as well as the overall collapse of the local Democratic structures in these sorts of counties. Most long-term officeholders in these counties remained Democrats for years though eventually many switched parties. This process has accelerated since 2008.

Interestingly, one county in northwest Florida where Obama improved on Clinton’s performance was Escambia. Bill Clinton’s record of dodging the draft and protesting the Vietnam War made him unpopular from the word go in military oriented western Florida. Unlike 1996 when the Democratic speaker designee was from the county and every legislative race was contested in the area, today the Democrats  are regularly leaving almost every legislative district west of the Apalachicola River unopposed.

Three biggest gains Clinton 1996 vs. Obama 2008

Orange  +11%

Seminole +8%

Osceola +6%

The three counties where Obama improved the most were all metropolitan Orlando counties further demonstrating the rapid changes in demographics/attitudes in that area. The worst decline for Obama from Clinton’s numbers of 1996 in a non completely rural county was in Sumter, which mixes traditional southern Democrats with the growing voting power of the Villages. It is entirely possible many of the white Republicans that previously made Orange and Seminole counties GOP locks have moved to Sumter and Lake in the past sixteen years.

It is worth noting an eleven point increase plus increased turnout in Orange County (population over 1 million in 2008) probably more than makes up for the steep decline in performance throughout rural north Florida where each counties swing against Obama represented only a few thousand votes. The Obama vote held firm in Orange in 2012 though his vote share declined in just about every other Florida county except Miami-Dade.

The full county-by-county comparison numbers can be found below.