Beginning this week, each Wednesday until Election Day we will take a look at our ratings for Congressional races. Following qualifying for state and local offices in June we will be running similar features for State House and State Senate (an initial rating of both State House and State Senate race will be released before qualifying.)
Here is this week’s look at Congressional races. Note that these are GENERAL ELECTION projections based on party control and do not reflect thoughts about primaries. After Democratic qualifying week debacles in FL-8 and especially FL-13 both are now considered “Safe Republican.” Analysis is found below the ratings list.
Safe Democratic
FL 5 (Brown)
FL 9 (Grayson)
FL 14 (Castor)
FL 20 (Hastings)
FL 21 (Deutch)
FL 22 (Frankel)
FL 23 (Wasserman-Schultz)
FL 24 (Wilson)
Likely Democratic
None
Leans Democratic
FL 18 (Murphy)
FL 26 (Garcia)
Toss Up
None
Leans Republican
FL 2 (Southerland)
Likely Republican
None
Safe Republican
FL 1 (Miller)
FL 3 (Yoho)
FL 4 (Crenshaw)
FL 6 (DeSantis)
FL 7 (Mica)
FL 8 (Posey)
FL 10 (Webster)
FL 11 (Nugent)
FL 12 ( Billarakis)
FL 15 (Ross)
FL 16 (Buchanan)
FL 17 (Rooney)
FL 19 (Open – will almost certainly be Clawson after June 24)
FL 25 (Diaz-Balart)
FL 27 (Ros-Lehtinen)
We’ve decided to place incumbents from both parties who are facing tough reelection fights in the “leans” category at least initially. However, with FL-13 now off the table for this cycle. the three races in the “leans” categories now will be the ones to watch. Regarding FL-18, the GOP Primary is a muddled mess right now and the result of the GOP Primary could very well determine the level of difficulty Congressman Patrick Murphy will face come the fall.
Regarding FL-2, the Democratic fundamentals in the district remain strong though the trend line towards the GOP in the Big Bend and Panhandle region is unmistakable. Additionally, the western part of the district is becoming more Republican by the day. Still in Gwen Graham, the Democrats have a superstar candidate and this is one of the few parts of the state where Republicans perform worse in off-year state election cycles than in Presidential cycles.
The Florida Squeeze 
Why does the Democratic party just give up……Fl 3 YOHO has embarrassed our district and state with his Tea Party insane radical right stands, including shutting down our government. Why doesn’t the party just give a shot at supporting his opponent? I am really tired of party politics and will put my money where my heart is…with the candidates I support and not in the party pot.
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We all need to support Marihelen Wheeler for Congress in District 3.
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You speak of fundamentals.
You should know the fundamentals in the Murphy districts are horrible for Democrats.
His victory depends on one of two things. Either a very weak Republican opponent which could happen or a decisive top of the ticket victory by cc in this district which is highly unlikely to happen.
So I would say it is a tossup at best. The Republicans nominate Domino it’ll be leans Republican.
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The fundamentals of this district are weak I grant you. But Murphy seems well positioned. We will see how it plays out.
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The Tea Party is dying. Southerland will end up being weakened by this and right now he has to be considered an underdog.
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Stop drinking the FDP DCCC Kool-Aid Sara.
Southerland is the favorite and Graham will need to be flawless and get great breaks to win.
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Southerland will win quite handily. 57% of the vote of more.
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Graham is the favorite and we still have a chance of getting some good candidates elsewhere!
Crist is going to create a wave that rises some of these so-called safe seats into the competitive column.
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and we still have a chance of getting some good candidates elsewhere!
For 2016? Candidate qualifying has closed for 2014.
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CD 13 went from Leans Democrat to Safe Republican in less than 3 months.
But let us keep Tant, Ulvert and the Titanic crew on board the ship steering us towards the next Iceberg :-》
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I would be stunned if Southerland loses.
Seats like that don’t flip on non wave elections and we’ve seen throughout the last two decades that the Ds lose seats like this and NEVER win them back.
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In some ways you are right, but FL-2 has a major urban area which happens to be quite liberal in it. It isn’t a traditional southern rural district as much as some of the others that flipped in the 1994 or 2010 waves were. Panama City is another urban area but heavily Republican with a large military population also. Tyndall AFB is in the district. I believe Southerland is the favorite but I don’t think he is anywhere near being home free.
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And nothing from the “anchor” of the I-4 Corridor. No one to run against a fecking lobbyist? no one against Gus?
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