We have heard various theories as to why Democrat Alex Sink was defeated by Republican David Jolly in a high-profile nationally watched Congressional special election last month. We’ve written extensively about the failures of the Sink campaign, who blew double-digit lead to lose on Election Day. The role of the Florida Democratic Party and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in the defeat have been examined in detail multiple times on this site.
One factor that has seemingly escaped serious discussion is the failure of the Democrats to turnout younger voters. Pinellas County has a reputation of being senior heavy and the Democrats seem to have failed to “hunt where the duck were,” in targeting younger voters by trying to spike turnout among more independent minded people aged between 31-50.
The failure to work closely with local operatives that know Pinellas County well might account for part of the disconnect on the part of the Democrats to properly understand the likely turnout model in the race.
Let’s look closely at the numbers put together for TFS by local St Pete-Clearwater area Democratic activist leader and numbers cruncher Hal Alterman.
First off, lets look at the turnout percentage by age group.